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Tom Petty may be gone, but for Kentucky football, this season is starting to resemble one of his biggest hits. After a 5-0 start, even a bye week didn’t stop the Wildcats from freefalling. A loss to Tennessee is hardly unusual at Kentucky, but considering the script of the 2023 season, UK found a novel way to lose.
QB Devin Leary, if not razor sharp, was better than he’d been all season, passing for 372 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Kentucky’s defense, and in particular its run defense, suddenly got shredded left, right and center by Tennessee, allowing 254 yards rushing on 48 carries. After Saturday’s 33-27 home loss, Kentucky is stumbling into Starkville next week, still a win short of bowl eligibility.
Player of the Week: Devin Leary
The senior QB had been struggling in a serious way, but he was outstanding against Tennessee. Over his previous 3 games, Leary had passed for 317 yards — total. But Saturday, he connected on a season-high 72 percent of his passes for 372 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Leary even rushed for 21 yards on 5 carries.
For much of the 2023 season, Leary’s chemistry with standout receivers Dane Key and Barion Brown had suffered. He had no such issues against the Vols, with the receivers combining for a dozen catches and 171 yards. While Kentucky is probably upset with the outcome, a get-right game from Leary was a big deal.
Freshman of the Week: Ty Bryant, defensive back
True freshman Bryant made his 1st career start and managed a team-high 12 tackles. Unfortunately, having a DB lead the team in tackles points to what a struggle Kentucky had with the ground attack. But Bryant, who was a legacy recruit, has a bright future in the secondary in Lexington.
Biggest concern: Where did the run defense go?
Kentucky entered 2nd in the SEC in rushing defense, yielding just 96 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. UK hadn’t allowed more than 173 yards rushing to an opponent in 2023 — and that was Georgia.
But Tennessee put up 254 rushing yards on 48 rushes. Kentucky had given up just 2 20-plus-yard rushes and 0 30-yard rushes on the season. UT equaled the season’s 20-plus-yard total, and it cracked a 52-yard touchdown run to open the scoring.
In recent seasons, Josh Heupel’s high-octane passing game had shredded Kentucky’s defense. UT didn’t even bother to throw the ball very much (21 attempts) because of how effortlessly it carved up UK’s defense on the ground.
Developing trend: Defensive struggles
In the past 3 weeks, Kentucky’s defense has surrendered 51, 38 and 33 points. Admittedly, the Missouri game included just 332 yards allowed, but the scoring issues are substantial. Mark Stoops is now 7-36 at UK when the Wildcats allowed 30 points or more, as opposed to 64-26 when opponents fail to reach 30 points.
Brad White’s unit has battled some significant injury issues, but it has also struggled deeply in pass and run defense and has been 1 of the SEC’s worst groups at getting off the field on 3rd down. Kentucky’s most winnable remaining games — at Mississippi State and at South Carolina — both feature offenses that can put up yards and points in a hurry. If Kentucky’s season is gong to avoid a real nose dive, prompt defensive improvement will be pivotal.
Key stat: 182
That’s Kentucky’s negative differential on the run, as not only did the Wildcats allow 254 yards rushing but they rushed for just 72, despite allowing only a single sack of Leary. The last time UK had such a negative rushing disparity was a 2018 loss to Georgia.
In any case, it was a poor time for both Kentucky’s run defense and run offense to pretty much go MIA on the same Saturday. Even with Leary’s resurgence, if Kentucky wants to avoid a 5-0 start turning into a 5-7 disaster, then getting the ground game going on one or both sides of the ball is a pretty good starting point.
First impression about Mississippi State: Pretty near a must-win
The 3 losses Kentucky has amassed in a row — Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee — have all been to quality teams. And Mississippi State feels like a step down in competition. But here’s the thing — Kentucky heads to Starkville. The last time the Wildcats won in Starkville was in 2008, 14-13 over Sly Croom’s team. Kentucky has post its last 6 games at State.
If Kentucky wins in Starkville, an 8-4 regular season and a decent bowl game could still be in the realm of possibility. If it loses, then South Carolina becomes UK’s best insurance against a 5-7 season — which Carolina may also be trying to avoid by that point.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
