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Kentucky vs. Texas A&M betting preview: Full analysis, projected pitching matchups
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Kentucky and Texas A&M will meet on Monday night in Omaha with plenty at stake.
The winner of this matchup will advance straight to the semifinals. The loser won’t be eliminated but their potential path to the CWS championship series will be much more complicated.
Although Kentucky and Texas A&M are SEC foes, this will be the first meeting between these programs in 2024. Both Kentucky and Texas A&M were near the top of the standings in their respective SEC divisions all season long.
Here’s a look at the betting lines (via DraftKings), projected pitching matchups and a notable weather forecast for Monday night’s game:
Kentucky vs. Texas A&M betting lines
Run line: Texas A&M -1.5 (+124) | Kentucky +1.5 (-160)
Money line: Texas A&M -135 | Kentucky +105
Total: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-120)
Texas A&M is a slight favorite in this game despite the Wildcats being the higher-seeded team. Neither of these programs are particularly experienced on this stage. The Aggies do have a bit of experience advantage in this matchup. They reached the semifinals of the CWS 2 years ago. Meanwhile, this is Kentucky’s first-ever appearance in Omaha.
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Kentucky projected pitcher: Mason Moore | 4.93 ERA in 87.2 innings | 80 strikeouts | 51 walks
Mason Moore has not officially been announced as UK’s starter, but he’s expected to get the nod on Monday night. Moore has been Kentucky’s Game 2 starting pitcher throughout this postseason, and has yielded some mixed results. When Moore is on, he’s typically excellent. Opponents are hitting just .232 against him in 2024. But when he’s off, he’s shown the propensity to issue free passes in bunches. That’s what happened in his last start vs. Oregon State — he walked 6 batters over 3.1 innings while not allowing a single hit from the Beavers.
Kentucky was able to dodge Moore’s command problems vs. Oregon State, but it will need a better start out of him on Monday vs. Texas A&M. He’s shown he’s capable of strong performances in recent weeks — 6 scoreless innings against Indiana State back on June 2 and 6.2 innings of 2-run ball against Florida on May 12.
Kentucky did use 4 bullpen arms in its win over NC State, but only 1 of those relievers (Johnny Hummel) threw more than 16 pitchers. Kentucky should have something close to its full arsenal of bullpen weapons available on Monday night.
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Texas A&M projected pitcher: Ryan Prager | 3.1 ERA in 87 innings | 114 strikeouts | 19 walks
Ryan Prager gets the start in this matchup after the Aggies surprisingly went with Justin Lamkin in Game 1. That gamble paid off, as the Aggies got past Florida on Saturday in a 3-2 thriller and now will have their ace ready for this matchup against Kentucky.
Prager has been Texas A&M’s best pitcher all season and grades out as one of the best strikeout pitchers in Omaha this year. Prager has also done a great job of limiting walks this season, which can’t be said for his counterpart in this matchup.
As for the Aggies’ available arms in relief, Texas A&M did go deep into its pen by asking Chris Cortez and Evan Aschenbeck to throw 6 innings against the Gators on Saturday. That’s two of Texas A&M’s best bullpen arms, especially with Shane Sdao out for the year. If Texas A&M gets a win and a deep outing from Prager, it should be in great shape for the rest of the week. If not, things could get dicey quickly.
Windy weather in Omaha
Wind gusts are expected to be fierce on Monday evening in Omaha.
According to some folks who are on the ground in Omaha on Monday afternoon, wind has been blowing in from right-center at Charles Schwab Field, with gusts ranging from 25-30 miles per hour.
Good weather today in Omaha, but as flags show, wind blowing straight in pregame … Gusts up to 25-30 mph pic.twitter.com/zOId3HSSjw
— Scott Carter (@GatorsScott) June 17, 2024
The current state of the wind in Omaha. Blowing directly in. pic.twitter.com/eW6AipjqPd
— Just Means Less ACC (@FQACC) June 17, 2024
Things could certainly change before first pitch at 7 p.m. ET, but it’s something to keep an eye on — especially if you’re planning to betting the total in this matchup. With 2 strong pitchers on the mound and the wind blowing in (if that remains the case), this could end up as a low-scoring affair.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
