And then there were 16.
Well, in the case of the SEC, it’s “and then there were 4.” Four SEC teams (Auburn, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee) will make bids for Elite Eight appearances this week. It’s not unfathomable to think that all 4 have a realistic shot of advancing to a potential regional final.
That would mark the first time in SEC history that it put 4 teams in the Elite Eight. Considering the conference already clinched its highest number of Sweet 16 teams since 1996, that would put an exclamation point on what’s been an historic year in the SEC.
How does each SEC team move on to the Elite Eight? Here’s the key for each of them:
Auburn — Frustrate Coby White
In a perfect world, I’d say you try and play a half-court game that’s slow and methodical. That would be the plan to frustrate UNC, much like Texas A&M did in the Round of 32 last year. Auburn isn’t about that life, though. The Tigers will push the tempo and fire off shots like they’re going out of style.
So what can Auburn do instead? Force White into some bad decisions. The freshman point guard goes at Russell Westbrook-like speed. Putting pressure on him to get him to make some ill-advised passes or shots seems to be the way to beat UNC.
Easier said than done? Absolutely.
#UNC's Coby White is something else in the open court. Flashy as all hell. pic.twitter.com/7ZDAvmfQtd
— Trevor William Marks (@twmarks_) March 24, 2019
In the past 2 months, UNC has 2 losses (vs. Virginia and against Duke in the ACC Tournament). In those games, White was 3-of-17 from 3-point range with a 6-6 assist-to-turnover ratio. If he puts up a clunker like that, the Heels won’t have enough to stick with hot-shooting Auburn.
Lost in the shuffle of the Tigers’ offensive blitzkrieg the past couple weeks is that they’ve actually been defending much better than they were in January. If that trend continues and the Tigers able to contain White, they’ll have a favorable shot at earning their first Elite Eight berth since 1986.
Kentucky — Don’t press if and when shots aren’t falling early
I know we should never assume anything in March, but I’m assuming P.J. Washington isn’t playing. That’s the way John Calipari has made it seem. And even if Kentucky gets its leading scorer back, there could be plenty of offensive struggles against Houston’s sixth-ranked defense.
The Cougars held 4 of their past 5 opponents under the 60-point mark, including both NCAA Tournament foes. Houston is going to try and make Kentucky win from deep, regardless of Washington’s status.
The worst-case scenario for Kentucky would be getting off to a slow offensive start (single digits at the second TV timeout) and pressing. Maybe that would prompt Tyler Herro to start forcing up bad shots and for things to snowball. That would play right into Houston’s hand.
There’s a decent chance this happens. The question is how does Kentucky react to a situation like that if it doesn’t have Washington to turn to? To a certain extent, that’s what happened against Wofford. The Cats relied on their defense to bail themselves out of a rough offensive day. It worked. I’m not sure that’ll work against a team as good as Houston.
Kentucky has to stay patient and trust that Ashton Hagans will run the offense and get guys in-rhythm looks. Without that trust, Washington’s absence could doom Kentucky’s Final Four bid.
LSU — Prepare to face a zone
Did you see this stat? I saw this stat.
Bad news: LSU, by my calculation, went 7-for-29 against Maryland's zone.
Good news: Michigan State has run five possessions of zone defense all year, according to @SynergySST.
— Cody Worsham (@CodyWorsham) March 25, 2019
It’s not news anymore that LSU struggles against the zone. It nearly cost the Tigers a shot at the Sweet 16. Once Maryland made the switch to the 2-3 zone in the second half, LSU was content to try and shoot over it.
Do I believe Michigan State comes out in a zone? Nope. But do I believe Tom Izzo will wait for the perfect time to put it on in hopes that it stymies LSU like it did in the Maryland game? Absolutely.
I’d be stunned if Tony Benford weren’t preparing for some sort of zone this week. It was and is an obvious weakness of the LSU offense, despite the fact that the backcourt has been beyond clutch in the tournament. If MSU comes out in a zone early in the second half and it yields a pair of bad shots/turnovers, LSU will see it the rest of the game.
But if the Tigers can at least look like they know what they’re doing and they get a couple of high-percentage looks against it, the zone will go away, regardless of whether or not they’ve truly mastered it.
Tennessee — Don’t let Carsen Edwards knock down that first 3-pointer early
As Edwards goes, so does Purdue. In the first 2 games of the NCAA Tournament, he’s averaging 34 points, including a career-high 42 in the blowout win against defending champion Villanova.
Edwards is going to get his shots off whether they’re going in or not. The small but explosive guard attempted at least 8 3-pointers in all but 3 of Purdue’s games this year. He had 6 games of 30-plus points this year — Purdue was 5-1 in those games — and he averaged 7 made 3-pointers. In those games, Edwards made an average of 2.5 3-pointers before the under-12 timeout. In fact, he hit at least 1 3-pointer before the under-16 timeout in all of those games.
Once he sees it go in early, Edwards is capable of taking over against anyone. We saw that against Villanova when he knocked down 4 triples in the first 5 1/2 minutes. That begs the question: How does Tennessee prevent that from happening?
Edwards has been extremely streaky in the past month, which suggests there is a formula to slow him down. Obviously the goal will be to get him to take contested (preferably step-back) shots. Rick Barnes will preach the importance of going over the top on screens and not letting him get clean looks at the basket.
I’d expect Tennessee to use a variety of guys to try to frustrate Edwards. I’d expect Lamonte Turner to have the majority of those responsibilities, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Barnes try and get more length on Edwards with Admiral Schofield or Jordan Bowden.
Whoever it is, they’ve got a major task ahead in Louisville.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
