To say that the stage is set for Brian Kelly in Year 4 would be an understatement.
Every year that he’s had at LSU so far had a built-in excuse. Year 1? He took over a program with 39 scholarship players in the bowl game. Year 2? The lofty preseason ranking ignored how many holes there were on that defense. Year 3? It was a Year 1 starting quarterback and a completely new defensive staff.
Year 4? There’s no excuse.
Kelly knows that. He knows that even though he failed to win 10 games for the first time since 2016, now is his time to get LSU to the Playoff for the first time since his arrival. Kelly also knows that every LSU coach in the 21st century won a national title by the end of Year 4. That’s why there was so much appeal for Kelly to leave Notre Dame.
So what will Year 4 entail? That’s as intriguing of a question as there is in college football.
For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.
So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:
Let’s continue with LSU:
Garrett Nussmeier is back with some explosive new (and old) weapons
In case you haven’t heard, the LSU signal-caller is back, and he’s a preseason Heisman Trophy favorite. That was an ideal way for LSU to start the 2025 offseason after he considered leaving for the NFL Draft in what was considered a thin group of quarterbacks. Instead, Nussmeier returned to take another step after a mostly solid Year 1 as LSU’s starter that included some highs (the Ole Miss comeback) and some lows (the 3-game losing streak).
Unfortunately for Nussmeier, 3-year starting tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. both left for the NFL, as did Mason Taylor, who finished his career as the best tight end in program history. Fortunately for Nussmeier, his surroundings look like they were upgraded. Aaron Anderson returns as a preseason All-SEC guy after a breakout season in the slot, and the Tigers made early moves to land Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), both of whom are proven explosive players at the Power Conference level. There’s more depth at the pass-catcher spots.
Nussmeier should also be able to lean even more on Caden Durham, who emerged as the best backfield option as a true freshman. In 2024, Durham joined Tank Bigsby and Quinshon Judkins as true freshmen who finished in the top 10 in the SEC in rushing during the 2020s. He averaged 3.48 yards after contact, and he was 1 of 2 SEC backs (Davon Booth) who carried the ball at least 140 times without a fumble. LSU will be young on the outside of its offensive line, but adding a pair of veteran interior linemen from the transfer portal should help Durham become an even bigger focal point of the offense.
In an ideal world, Nussmeier isn’t being asked to put up Heisman numbers a la Jayden Daniels in 2025. A big part of that equation will be the Year 2 Blake Baker defense.
While I’m on the subject of that group …
The Year 2 Blake Baker defense has to be _________.
“Reliable.”
If you were told that LSU wouldn’t allow more than 28 points in a game all year, you’d say that was extremely reliable. If you said that happened 1-2 times, you’d still say that was pretty reliable. If you said that happened in half of LSU’s conference games, you’d throw your hands up and claim that it’s the same old story for the Tigers in the 2020s. The Tigers improved by nearly 4 points per game, but that wasn’t good enough to fuel a Playoff berth. Why? Well, it let up 28 points in half of the conference games.
There’s a clear set of expectations in 2025. It has to look like a Year 2 defense. Part of that will be Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins Jr. both returning from injury and leading the middle of that unit. Weeks’ emergence after Perkins’ injury was one of the bright spots of 2024. LSU aggressively pursued help at edge-rusher by getting Jack Pyburn (Florida) and Patrick Payton (Florida State), and the post-spring addition of USF defensive lineman Bernard Gooden will help after he had 35 pressures and 27 hurries in 2024.
And obviously, that would help a scrutinized secondary take the next step. Mind you, it’s a new-look secondary that’ll depend largely on how reliable LSU’s outside corners will be. The promising Ashton Stamps will step into one of those spots, and the addition of decorated Virginia Tech transfer Mansoor Delane will also provide some much-needed experience on the back end. If the 6-4 DJ Pickett can look the part from the jump, LSU is going to achieve that extremely realistic goal in 2025.
Reliability is in sight.
LSU’s Over/Under Win Total
Odds (via BetMGM):
- Over 8.5 wins: -185
- Under 8.5 wins: +150
Game-by-Game Predictions
Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Tigers:
Week 1: at Clemson (W)
I know, I know. LSU in season openers has been like a baby trying to run. There’s an expectation that even if a few successful strides start that endeavor, a fall is coming. Maybe that’ll happen in “Death Valley Jr.,” which was what Kelly inexplicably called it while completely disregarding his history in season openers. But what a fitting start to the latter half of the decade this would be if LSU finally didn’t fall on its stumpy little baby legs in an opener. What’s been grossly overlooked by the “Clemson is back” crowd is that it went 0-3 vs. SEC teams with 243 rushing yards allowed (on 6.2 yards/carry) in those games last year. Make that SEC losing streak 4 games after Durham takes advantage of a Clemson defense that still hasn’t quite figured out how to stop the run.
Week 2: vs. Louisiana Tech (W)
A week after an emotional win, LSU starts off extremely slow in a sleeper matchup against a Louisiana Tech team that lost 6 of its games by 10 points or less. A 7-3 LSU deficit 20 minutes into the game has the Baton Rouge faithful sweating a bit, but the home opener takes on a different tone in the second half. Nussmeier settles in and turns it into a 35-14 laugher.
Week 3: vs. Florida (W)
Billy Napier is 1-11 vs. AP Top 25 teams in true road games, and in the last 15 years while he was the head coach at Notre Dame and LSU, Kelly is 16-7 vs. AP Top 25 teams at home. So, you get where I’m leaning with this. A year after Florida got the best of LSU in The Swamp, the Tigers flip the script by attacking downfield. Nussmeier puts together a vintage performance, and Nic Anderson rips off a 60-yard touchdown in his first big moment in an LSU uniform. DJ Lagway does everything he can to keep the Gators alive, but a late interception from Mansoor Delane closes out an elite showdown in Death Valley Sr.
Week 4: vs. Southeastern Louisiana (W)
Is this the school where Bobby Boucher burst onto the national scene? Nope? OK, if he steps on the field with remaining eligibility — something that has a greater than 0.0% chance of happening with what I know about eligibility — let me know. Until then, I’m assuming LSU rolls.
Week 5: at Ole Miss (L)
At some point, a schedule with 7 preseason AP Top 25 teams will catch up to LSU. A trip to Oxford, where LSU has lost in its 2 games during the Lane Kiffin era, is that time. Unlike the trip to Clemson, the Tigers can’t find the weakness in Ole Miss’s defense. Nussmeier doesn’t get enough time to attack downfield, which feels like the vast majority of last year’s matchup. Credit Pete Golding for repeating that formula with a mostly new front 7. But this time, Nussmeier can’t find the late answer. The “Austin Simmons is for real” game happens in a 28-24 Ole Miss victory.
Week 6: Bye
The Tigers get their first bye at a great time, allowing them to refocus after a loss.
Week 7: vs. South Carolina (W)
A year after these teams played in the most scrutinized SEC game of 2024, there’s much less controversy. LSU comes out firing off the bye, and the Tigers’ defense makes life difficult for LaNorris Sellers. He’s not comfortable all game, which leads to some 2024-like turnovers from the South Carolina quarterback. In a battle of top-15 teams, LSU looks like a team that hit the reset button at the perfect time while South Carolina looks like a team who could be in for a ruthless gauntlet in the latter half of the season.
Week 8: at Vanderbilt (W)
Diego Pavia guarantees a victory by dubbing FirstBank Stadium “the real Death Valley.” But instead of LSU’s Playoff dreams dying in Nashville, there’s a clear divide between the frisky Commodores and the title-hungry Tigers. Finally, the Perkins-in-the-STAR breakout game comes. He forces a fumble on a sack of Pavia, and he picks off a pass en route to SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors. LSU avoids any sort of flashbacks to 2024 Alabama at Vanderbilt.
Week 9: vs. Texas A&M (W)
Want a weird stat? Texas A&M hasn’t won a true road game vs. an AP Top 25 team since it beat No. 3 Auburn in 2014. It’s been more than a decade since the Aggies earned such a victory. That’s a losing streak of 13 consecutive games. Do I think that ends at LSU? Despite how last year’s matchup turned on a dime, no, I don’t. I expect Marcel Reed to have his moments, but the inconsistency in the passing game proves costly and the Aggie offense stalls in the second half. LSU fends off A&M and gets some revenge.
Week 10: Bye
The Tigers take their second bye before the Alabama game, as is tradition.
Week 11: at Alabama (W)
And now you’ve reached the part in the season where it becomes real for LSU. How does the result flip after fat/fake Mike The Tiger watched Alabama run all over LSU in Death Valley? For starters, real ones know that LSU has been historically better in Tuscaloosa than in Baton Rouge. But that alone won’t flip last year’s blowout. What does? The Tigers can actually defend the run. That turns Alabama’s offense a bit too 1-dimensional. Baker’s vision of this LSU defense comes together in the loudest possible way with a blitz-heavy approach that overwhelms Simpson. He has a game that’s a bit reminiscent of Jalen Milroe’s low performances, and LSU’s balanced offensive approach does enough to win a thriller. The Tigers have all but locked in a Playoff berth.
Week 12: vs. Arkansas (W)
When Nussmeier is being dissected by the NFL Draft experts, this is going to be loaded on the highlight reel. Nussmeier will be dialing up all sorts of elite, next-level throws, most notably to Trey’Dez Green, who has the best game of his young career. An up-and-down Arkansas secondary collapses upon arrival in Baton Rouge and The Battle for the Boot stays in Louisiana.
Week 13: vs. Western Kentucky (W)
You know what I learned today? WKU’s starting quarterback is a 7th-year grad student named “Maverick McIvor.” He committed to Texas Tech back in the summer of 2018 when Kliff Kingsbury was the head coach. A 25-year-old who was in the same recruiting class as Spencer Rattler, Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels won’t be a picnic for an LSU team that’s trying to stay healthy for a postseason run, but LSU’s ground game takes over in a 35-17 victory.
Week 14: at Oklahoma (W)
With a Playoff berth already locked in, one might wonder what’s on the line here. That’s simple. An SEC Championship berth is up for grabs, as is a potential first-round bye. LSU doesn’t take that opportunity for granted. John Mateer is unable to use his legs, which is the biggest year-to-year improvement of the LSU defense. The Tigers continue their trend of being a more prepared team on the road than at home. Nussmeier is far from perfect, but the Sooners’ offense is stuck in the mud and LSU pulls out a gritty 21-17 victory in Norman.
2025 projection: 11-1 (7-1), T-1st in SEC
Is beating Alabama the moment when LSU gets into the Playoff?
12-team Playoff? Yes
Look. I don’t want to sound indecisive here. I picked LSU to win a national championship.
I’ve been on record with the prediction since May, and for me to sound uncertain now would feel like some sort of overreaction to Nussmeier’s knee. I will say that this all goes out the window if he goes down, which should be obvious, but given the fact that we watched Week 1 backups win national titles 4 times in the Playoff era — 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2021 — we should never assume the worst. I am, however, assuming that Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren Jr. won’t be as comfortable in the LSU offense as Nussmeier.
But I’m not projecting that, nor am I projecting much adversity at all for LSU’s 2025 season. An 11-1 trip to the SEC Championship wouldn’t just smash that over/under, but it would silence the Kelly doubters. It would bring on a different level of buzz that any Kelly-coached team has had since the 2012 Notre Dame team.
That’s what this all has been building toward. It’s why LSU made such aggressive moves in the transfer portal. Call it the Bryce Underwood finances opening up if you will, but last year, Ohio State showed us that when it comes to predicting a national title team in this era, follow the money and the talent. LSU will have both in spades.
Finally, Kelly’s time has arrived.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
