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You’ll have to explain it to me. Texas A&M, 7-4 and unranked in the latest AP poll, is a three-point favorite over No. 8 LSU (9-2) at Kyle Field in the regular-season finale on Saturday night.
Yes, this should be a good old-fashioned SEC-style smash mouth. The kind the two teams have grown accustomed to since the once-heated rivalry began in 1899. With seven consecutive wins, LSU has pulled away in a series in which the Tigers hold a 33-20-3 advantage.
Here are 10 bold predictions from what should be the best of the Rivalry Week games in the SEC.
1. LSU plus the points
As stated earlier, someone is going to have to explain to me how Texas A&M is favored by three points in this one. Granted, the middle of the Tigers defensive front will be without Breiden Fehoko. But Tyler Shelvin is a more than capable backup.
I’m anticipating a low-scoring defensive struggle along the lines of LSU’s 19-3 victory over Mississippi State. The Tigers will be within three points of Texas A&M, if not outright winners.
2. There won’t be enough offense to combine for 47 1/2
I would be surprised if LSU is able to run with any consistency on Texas A&M’s league-leading run defense, which is giving up an average of only 82.82 yards per game. And I would be equally surprised if Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond has any consistent success through the air against an extremely talented secondary.
No, neither team will get much traction offensively, and that should make for a very low-scoring game. The two teams will combine for less than 47 1/2 points, much less.
3. Interceptions
While Texas A&M will put the ball in the air as part of an attempt to remain balanced on offense, LSU will go to the air more out of necessity when its run game is stuffed. Either way, it’s going to be tough to move the ball in the air for either team. LSU has a ball-hawking secondary that’s second to none in the SEC. They don’t call it “DBU” for nothing. The Tigers lead the SEC and are sixth in the nation with 16 interceptions this season, led by sophomore defensive back Grant Delpit, who has picked off a league-high 5 passes, fourth best in the nation.
But Joe Burrow can be off target when pressured. The LSU quarterback isn’t the most accurate passer under normal circumstances and has a difficult time going through his progressions and finding open receivers when pressured.
The team that comes up with the most interceptions will win the game.
4. Touchdowns come at a premium
Neither team will produce more than one touchdown, and don’t be surprised if one, or perhaps both, doesn’t make it to the end zone in regulation. Texas A&M leads the conference in rushing defense, LSU’s bread and butter on offense. If the Tigers can’t form some sort of running game, it could be a long afternoon for Burrow and LSU.
On the other side of the coin, LSU will pressure Mond in an attempt to throw him off his game. Add to that the aforementioned secondary and Texas A&M could become one-dimensional on offense.
Neither situation is conducive to a high-scoring game.
5. Sacks aplenty
The teams will combine for double-digit sacks. Texas A&M is worst in the conference in sacks allowed, giving up an average of 3.0 per game. It would be more if not for Mond’s running abilities. LSU isn’t much better, ranking 11th in the SEC while giving up 2.46 sacks per game.
Both defenses have been fairly adept at getting to the quarterback. Texas A&M ranks fifth in the conference with 2.64 sacks per game, while LSU is right behind with 2.46. Look for those numbers to double as each team makes the other uncomfortable in their passing games.
6. LSU loses with Nick Brossette in the backfield
Some say it’s poor vision, but I’m just not buying it. The senior running back simply refuses to run between the tackles and get what he can where the play is designed to go, too often trying to bounce outside and make the big play.
That’s a ploy that works on Rice, but not on defenses like Alabama, Mississippi State or Texas A&M. The senior should know better.
No, LSU’s best chance for victory is with sophomore Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a hard-nosed running back who takes his 3-yard gains and on occasion busts the big run, as evidenced against Georgia when he ran for 145 yards on 19 carries (7.63 average).
The Tigers lose with Brossette as their featured back on Saturday.
7. Burrow throws for more yards than Mond
This may be the boldest prediction of all. But here’s why the LSU quarterback outthrows his counterpart. Mond will be up against not only a strong pass rush but the best cover secondary he has seen. The combination will limit Mond’s overall numbers.
Burrow has the advantage of throwing against the SEC’s 12th-ranked pass defense. His ability to find the open receiver and for his receivers to get open with regularity will be the keys. More often than not, neither aspect of the Tigers’ passing game has been very effective.
8. Trayveon Williams continues 100-yard game streak
The Aggies’ running back has rushed for 100 yards in each of his last three games and in seven of 11 this season. He’ll get enough opportunities to keep that streak alive. The SEC rushing leader with 1,326 yards will find the going tough, but he will pop a big gain or two to reach the century mark again on Saturday.
It is, however, interesting to note that in 35 games under defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, LSU has held opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing in 14 and are a perfect 14-0 when doing so.
9. LSU furthers A&M struggles in the red zone
The Aggies are 12th in the league in red zone conversions (80.77 percent). It’s not that they haven’t had their chances. Texas A&M is tied for third in the SEC in red zone attempts (52). Against LSU, the Aggies will not only be limited in attempts but will be relegated to field goal tries each time there.
10. Neither QB throws a TD pass
Both defenses are going to make things tough for opposing quarterbacks. For Burrow, it isn’t a particularly bold prediction that he doesn’t throw a touchdown pass. He’s last in the SEC with 8 in 11 games. He has thrown TD passes in only five games this season.
But Mond is averaging close to 2 touchdown passes per game in the first 11 games this season. Only one time this year has Mond not thrown a touchdown pass. He failed to reach the end zone against Arkansas in late September. Mond has since thrown scoring strikes in six consecutive games. That streak comes to an end on Saturday.
Glenn Sattell is an award-winning freelance writer for Saturday Down South.
