LSU vs. Texas A&M is a matchup that will have significant SEC title race ramifications for both programs.Â
The Tigers and Aggies enter this weekend at the top of the SEC standings. They’re the lone remaining SEC teams who are undefeated in conference play, meaning this is a battle for first place entering the month of November.
Both teams have intriguing statistical profiles with some clear strengths and weaknesses.
Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:
LSU vs. Texas A&M betting lines
Lines via bet365:
Spread: LSU +2.5 (-105) | Texas A&M -2.5 (-115)
Total: Over 54 (-110) | Under 54 (-110)
Looking to get in on the action this fall? Here’s Saturday Down South’s ranking of all the best real money betting apps that are available in 2024! Multiple apps are currently offering sign-up bonuses for new users!
Betting trends to know for LSU
LSU is…
- 3-4 against the spread this season
- 3-5 against the spread as a road favorite in the Brian Kelly era
Betting trends to know for Texas A&M
Texas A&M is…
- 2-5 against the spread this season
- 2-2 against the spread this season when favored by under a touchdown
Advanced Stats previewÂ
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- LSU rushing offense success rate: 43.4%
- Texas A&M rushing defense success rate: 34.6%
LSU’s running game has been a bit disappointing this season. The Tigers have a 43.4% rushing success rate on the year, which is down significantly from last season when it was north of 58%. Caden Durham has emerged as LSU’s most explosive runner, but even he has just a 41% success rate on the season, per Game On Paper. This is not a very good unit by really any statistical measure, although it’s worth noting that Durham had one of his best games of the season last time out.Â
On the other side, Texas A&M has a very stout run defense. The Aggies have held opponents to under 4 yards per carry in 5 consecutive games. That includes matchups against Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and Mississippi State. This is arguably the biggest strength in A&M’s profile — and a pretty clear advantage for the Aggies going into this matchup.
- Texas A&M rushing offense success rate: 48%
- LSU rushing defense success rate: 35%
Offensively for Texas A&M, the running game has been good, but not elite to this point in the season. A&M’s 48% success rate ranks 36th nationally on the season, but a lot of that work came early in the year against programs like McNeese State, Bowling Green and Florida. A&M has averaged below 4 yards per carry in 2 of its 4 SEC games so far in 2024. Both Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels have been good from an EPA-per-rush perspective to start the year, however.Â
While LSU has endured some issues with its passing defense (more on that later), the Tigers have been decent at defending the run. This is not a particularly elite unit, but it is much improved over a year ago when the Tigers had a rush defense success rate that was in just the 33rd percentile nationally. Through 7 games, LSU has allowed over 200 rushing yards just once. South Carolina (5.9 yards per carry) is really the only offense that has had sustained success running the ball on LSU this season.
Calling all Louisiana residents! Interested in signing up with a new sportsbook? Here’s a bet365 Louisiana promo to help you get started with generous sign-up offer!
Passing success rate
- LSU passing offense success rate: 51.3%
- Texas A&M passing defense success rate: 35.7%
The strength of this LSU team is its passing offense — although even that has been inconsistent at times this season. Despite some cold stretches, LSU’s passing attack carries a passing success rate north of 51% into this game against the Aggies. Garrett Nussmeier leads the SEC in touchdown passes with 18, but there’s still some room for improvement here. He’s averaging 7.9 yards per attempt and has already thrown 6 picks on the year.Â
Texas A&M’s secondary is a big reason why this team has won 6 straight games. The Aggies have yet to allow 300 passing yards in a game this season and only once has a team completed more than 60% of their passes against this defense. A&M ranks 5th in the SEC in pass defense efficiency rating entering this matchup against LSU. A&M is also 4th in the SEC in total passes defended (8 interceptions, 30 pass breakups).
- Texas A&M passing offense success rate: 40.7%
- LSU passing defense success rate: 44.9%
Texas A&M’s passing offense has been hard to gauge this season. Conner Weigman had an absolutely brutal first game against Notre Dame and then missed most of September with a shoulder injury. Marcel Reed filled in admirably for Weigman, but Reed is more of a threat with his legs than with his arms. Since Weigman returned a couple weeks ago, however, A&M’s passing offense has been excellent. A&M’s passing success rate against Mizzou and Mississippi State comes out to 50%, which is tied for 21st amongst all FBS teams over that span.Â
LSU’s pass defense has certainly been vulnerable to start the year. Per Game on Paper, LSU’s pass defense ranks 99th nationally in total EPA. The Tigers have only faced a couple of strong passing offenses this season, so that’s a bit concerning going into this matchup against the Aggies. However, LSU did have a very strong day defensively against Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago. LSU held Jaxson Dart to just 284 yards and 1 touchdown on 42 pass attempts — by far his least-efficient performance of the season. LSU does have a brand new defensive coaching staff in place, so it’s possible something clicked before that game against the Rebels.
1 other key: Which Conner Weigman will we get?
As noted above, there have been a couple of different version of Weigman so far this season. He was dreadful in the opener against Notre Dame but has been very efficient since then with an average depth of target north of 9 yards in A&M’s last 2 games, per PFF. On the flip side, Weigman also has a turnover-worthy play rate of 8.8% over that same span — an extremely high number, even in a limited sample.
In theory, Weigman is set up to have a good game at home against a mediocre-at-best LSU pass defense. The Tigers have struggled to limit both down-to-down success and explosive plays in the passing game this season. If there’s one strength here, it’s that LSU has a team-wide pressure grade of 81.5 per PFF, which ranks 13th nationally entering this weekend’s game.
At this point in the season, we have a decent amount of data on who these teams are — but Weigman’s play represents a significant variable heading into this matchup.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.Â
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
