Mike Norvell’s future at FSU likely to end up just like Billy Napier’s exit from Florida
By David Wasson
Published:
Gather ‘round, kids. It’s time for a good, old-fashioned cautionary tale.
Once upon a time, a young and seemingly-gifted college football coach somehow parlayed a Group of 5 conference championship into a big-time job. That coach started with 2 losing seasons, then somehow won 23 of his next 27 games and got a lucrative contract extension with a big, fat buyout.
Then, predictably, the coach would lose 16 or his next 23 games yet somehow bamboozle his new employers into the mother of all second chances despite being on the verge of a 4th losing season out of 6 in his current job.
The end.
The protagonist in the above story, of course, is Florida State coach Mike Norvell. And yes, this week’s head-shaker of a decision was that the powers-that-be in Tallahassee saw fit to ensure Norvell would return as the Seminoles coach in 2026 despite FSU doling out week after week of disappointment in 2025.
It is also stunningly ironic that Norvell won’t be coaching for his future employment this Saturday when the Seminoles take on in-state rival Florida in Gainesville (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Why? Because one needs to look no further than Gainesville to envision exactly how this is all going to end.
Former Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley lived the mantra that anything that needs to be eventually done should be done immediately. Did the Gators pull the trigger a year too early on a coach during Foley’s leadership? Perhaps. But his athletic program also turned into an Everything School due to the aggressive style.
Enter Scott Stricklin, who replaced Foley after the latter retired in 2016. Stricklin could have easily fired Billy Napier (like Norvell, another Group of 5 product, incidentally) when the Gators started 2024 with one-sided losses to Miami and Texas A&M. But he didn’t. And then again facing the same judgment after an 8-5 finish boosted by 4 straight wins down the stretch against No. 22 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss, Florida State and Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl, Stricklin decided to keep Napier around.
That decision backfired in a startling-yet-predictable way in 2025, as Napier’s Gators started a disappointing 3-4 before Stricklin finally yanked the ripcord on his 3rd football coach in 9 years. At 3-8 heading into the most meaningless Florida-Florida State game in recent memory, the Gators just might hit the jackpot and land Lane Kiffin… or might whiff on Kiffin and find itself riding an unprecedented coaching carousel that features fewer stellar options than openings.
Equally ironically, and in an entirely alternative universe, had Florida jettisoned Napier at the end of 2024 and made a serious run at Kiffin the Gators might have ended up with the enigmatic coach all to themselves. But because Florida ignored both Foley’s mantra and also the time-honored concept that fortune favors the bold, the Gators played it safe and are now in a 3-way bidding war for Kiffin.
As for Norvell, both the coach and the university are all saying the right things about the future – talking about the need to “institute fundamental changes in specific areas to improve performance” without specifying one tiny little bit what that actually means.
“There’s a lot of things that we’ll continue to take a broader scope look at as we get into the offseason,” Norvell said earlier this week. “But I’m evaluating throughout the course of the year in every part of our program to be able to take the proper steps for us to be the best that we can be.”
“Coach Norvell embraces our support in that process and agrees that success must be achieved. He continues to demonstrate an unwavering belief in this program’s future, and so do we,” said university president Richard McCullough in a statement announcing Norvell’s retention. “This decision reflects a unified commitment to competing in the rapidly evolving landscape of college football, while maintaining continuity within the program.”
Just because Norvell won’t illuminate the world on the planned structural changes to the program doesn’t mean we don’t know what is coming. The short answer: Not much of relevance. Oh sure, there will be some shuffling of funds from one pot to another, vague reassigning of roles of middle-management types and perhaps even a new coordinator or two.
But make no mistake: Norvell has proven what he is at Florida State in the past 6 years by winning 53.5% of his overall games and 45.8% of ACC games despite recruiting and transfer-portaling some of the best athletes in the country.
In other words, keeping Norvell and Co. – in whatever form the Co. turns out to be – faces a much higher percentage of failure than it does success.
Is that a pessimistic analysis of the Seminoles’ situation? Can Norvell turn it around and turn down the heat underneath his seat in 2026? Perhaps. But the lookouts on the RMS Titanic were optimistic that there was clear sailing back on that fateful transatlantic journey in 1912 and Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet showed us how that worked out.
But hey, it’s clear sailing heading into 2026 for Norvell and the Seminoles now given that mother of all second chances. Time to rearrange some deck chairs and hope for the best… just like Florida did a season ago.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. He also hosts Gulfshore Sports with David Wasson, weekdays from 3-5 pm across Southwest Florida and on FoxSportsFM.com. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
