Mississippi State Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Bulldogs in 2025
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It was Year 0.
That’s the only way that I can describe what Mississippi State endured in the first season of the Jeff Lebby era. The byproduct of having 3 coaches in as many seasons was a roster that was completely turned over. As a result, the Bulldogs were swimming in the deep end throughout 2024. The Blake Shapen injury against Florida probably should’ve drowned Lebby’s squad, but it hung tougher than what an 0-8 SEC record would suggest.
So that’s out of the way. Whether this is a true Year 2 or more like a Year 1, one thing is clear. The roster turnover didn’t slow down in 2025. It actually increased. Mississippi State lost 38 via the transfer portal and it brought in 34. The good news is that Shapen is back, which should bode well for a Year 2 offense (more on that in a minute).
But for a program that’s nearly 2 years removed from its last SEC win — Oct. 21, 2023 at Arkansas — there’s an obvious question. When is that drought going to end? And when that moment comes, will it be a launching point? That’s not a question that will have an answer just yet. But in the meantime, we can peek into the Crystal Ball.
For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.
So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:
Let’s continue with Mississippi State:
The Year 2 Jeff Lebby offense should be better, but how much?
Part of the problem with projecting Mississippi State’s Year 2 arc is that we really only got about a month of Shapen running the offense. It didn’t help that the team’s top receiver, Kevin Coleman Jr., left for Mizzou. What will help is that Shapen at least got some reps running the Lebby offense, which has been significantly better in Year 2 at his previous stops. Year 2 of Matt Corral (when healthy) led to a 10-2 season and Year 2 of Dillon Gabriel at Oklahoma turned the Sooners into a 10-win team, as well. The latter had the No. 4 offense in America.
That’s not the bar for this group. Obviously. A team that averaged 25.8 points per game wasn’t even in the top 80 in the FBS. Against SEC competition, the Bulldogs were 13th at 21.1 points per game. It’s not realistic to expect that number to improve by a full touchdown. What is realistic is that hitting 28 points against SEC competition is in play on a weekly basis, and not as much of a one-off like when it happened against Florida and Georgia.
Shapen has to stay healthy, but the floor of that unit will be better because of the backfield. It’s incredibly underrated.
Davon Booth had 90 scrimmage yards in 5 of the last 6 games, and he essentially matched his 2023 production at Utah State. During that stretch, he also forced 19 missed tackles and he racked up 319 yards after first contact. Mind you, that was without fumbling once all season. That, plus his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, will pair will with South Alabama transfer and all-name team legend Fluff Bothwell. All you need to know about Bothwell is that among FBS running backs with 100 carries, the only player who had a better average yards after first contact than him (4.57) was Ashton Jeanty.
There’s an expectation that Mississippi State will run the football more consistently than it did a year ago. Will game flow favor that? That’s a different question.
Can the defense flirt with mediocrity?
That’s the question I always ask teams with a dreadful defense and an offense with potential. In fact, I asked it about the 2021 Ole Miss team that Lebby was a part of. He had, in every way, a Year 0 defense. That group was decimated with turnover, and as a result, it couldn’t stop a nosebleed.
Sound harsh? Well, the Bulldogs allowed 9 more points per game than any other SEC team. In conference play, the Bulldogs allowed 11.4 more points per game than any other SEC team. It was bad. Was it bad because of the scheme? Or was it bad because it lacked guys who should’ve been on the field against SEC competition?
We’re gonna find out because that group ranks No. 20 in percentage of returning defensive production. It’ll be experienced on the back end, but transfer portal-reliant up front. The most notably addition in the trenches was NC State’s Red Hibbler, who will look to bounce back after an injury-riddled 2024 season. He and returning JACK linebacker Branden Jennings will be tasked with improving a pass rush that was virtually non-existent. Last year, Oregon State was the only FBS team who finished with fewer sacks than the Bulldogs (10). In 8 SEC contests, Mississippi State had just 5 sacks. That’s how you allow 7.1 yards/play in SEC games.
That can’t repeat. That’s not flirting with mediocrity. That’s stumbling into obscurity. A repeat of that would be bad news for defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler.
Mississippi State Over/Under Win Total
Odds (via BetMGM)
- Over 3.5 wins: -165
- Under 3.5 wins: +140
Game-by-game predictions
Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Bulldogs:
Week 1: at Southern Miss (W)
I’m a Charles Huff respecter, but the former Mississippi State coach inherited a 1-win team that is searching for its first win vs. an FBS foe since 2023. Something tells me that won’t be a streak that ends against the Bulldogs.
Week 2: vs. Arizona State (L)
I remembered thinking at this time last year that this was a fair fight. Shoot, I remembered watching this game thinking that it was a fair fight after Mississippi State roared back. Then Kenny Dillingham’s squad closed the deal with Cam Skattebo, who I later put at No. 3 on my Heisman Trophy ballot. Skattebo is gone, but that team is still No. 2 in America in percentage of returning production after winning the Big 12. I don’t like the idea of Sam Leavitt getting a ton of time to operate, nor do I like the thought of Mississippi State covering Jordyn Tyson. That duo fuels a more dominant win than last year.
Week 3: vs. Alcorn State (W)
I can’t help but think of anyone besides the late Steve McNair whenever I see “Alcorn State.” Fortunately for Mississippi State, the defensive task will be slightly easier than that one more than 3 decades ago.
Week 4: vs. Northern Illinois (W)
Last year told us all why you don’t assume that Mississippi State will dominate a MAC school. Shoutout, Toledo. So why can’t Northern Illinois take a page out that playbook and roll in Starkville a year removed from knocking off eventual-runner up Notre Dame in South Bend? Well, NIU ranks dead last in America in percentage of returning production, and it has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Shoot, NIU lost 3 players to Mississippi State. A team that was gutted by turnover will have a much different task than it had with a veteran group last year. The Bulldogs grind out a 28-17 victory.
Week 5: vs. Tennessee (L)
This is a brutal matchup for Mississippi State. Against a Tennessee squad that can defend the run and force defenses to rely on their depth, Mississippi State struggles. It’s not the day for the Bulldogs to pull off an upset. SEC play starts out in the loss column after Lebby’s offense sputters against his former boss.
Week 6: at Texas A&M (L)
There are, dare I say, signs of life from Mississippi State’s offense taking the next step. A fast start in College Station has the Kyle Field crowd scratching its head. But a trust in the ground game lifts the Aggies. An inability to stop the run proves costly for the second week in a row. Mississippi State’s early 10-3 lead turns into a 35-24 loss.
Week 7: Bye
The Bulldogs use their first idle week to try to solve their run defense woes.
Week 8: at Florida (L)
There’s really not much tougher of a start to SEC play that Mississippi State’s run defense could’ve had. Two road games against arguably the 2 best run-blocking offensive lines in the SEC spells trouble. Coming off the bye, the Bulldogs aren’t able to correct their biggest weakness. It’s Florida who gets a bounce-back victory while frustration grows for Lebby and Co.
Week 9: vs. Texas (L)
This was a surprising defensive showing for Mississippi State in 2024, but Texas had a quarterback in his first SEC start. You might’ve heard of him. He goes by Arch Manning. This time around, a much more experienced Manning looks the part on the road. Mississippi State doesn’t fold offensively. It’s not quite the 2023 Oklahoma offense that Lebby led to a win against Texas, though. The Bulldogs hang tough against the preseason No. 1 team in America, but the second half is all Longhorns.
Week 10: at Arkansas (L)
All I ask for is that we don’t repeat the last time that these teams met in Fayetteville. That aforementioned 7-3 game was also the last time that the Bulldogs won an SEC game. So why doesn’t that repeat? Well, neither team will string stops together like those squads did. That makes this matchup a shootout. The difference late is one more reminder that the Mississippi State run defense isn’t ready for the task at hand. Late-season Braylen Russell does the heavy lifting for Arkansas and the Bulldogs watch a prime opportunity to end the SEC losing streak slip away.
Week 11: vs. Georgia (L)
Something tells me that Georgia will be looking directly past Mississippi State, and understandably so. Teams who haven’t won an SEC game in 2 years don’t exactly stop national title contenders in their tracks. But UGA plays with its food late into the 3rd quarter of a 21-17 game. That results in UGA playing with a greater sense of urgency down the stretch, especially on defense. Shapen’s downfield passing attack disappears and UGA survives a sleepy 28-17 game.
Week 12: at Mizzou (L)
A week after looking like it turned the corner a bit with a competitive showing against Georgia, Mississippi State’s defense doesn’t show up on the road. The ground-heavy approach from Mizzou is a bad late-season task for that unit. That leads to Ahmad Hardy and Beau Pribula running all over the Bulldogs. Shapen and Brenen Thompson connect for multiple touchdowns, but the lack of answers on the other side of the ball are too much for the visiting squad to overcome.
Week 13: Bye
The Bulldogs use their second bye of the year to regroup and it pays off immensely.
Week 14: vs. Ole Miss (W)
Yep. The Egg Bowl is the perfect time to get weird. Nothing would be weirder than a 9-2 Ole Miss team going into Starkville and watching its Playoff hopes go up in smoke against a nothing-to-lose Mississippi State squad. In a stunning development, the Bulldogs ground game finally flexes in SEC play. Booth and Bothwell both reach the end zone and Mississippi State finally finds a pass rush that gets to a respected SEC quarterback. Lane Kiffin puts too much reliance on the passing game late and Mississippi State closes it out by picking off Austin Simmons. Pandemonium ensues in Starkville to close 2025.
2025 projection: 4-8 (1-7), T-15th in SEC
Hey, that regular-season finale ruled … didn’t it?
12-team Playoff berth? No
That’s not exactly what Mississippi State is shooting for this year. This is about building something that looks like it belongs on an SEC field. That means playing meaningful 4th quarters against respect conference foes. It means having an offense that feels like it has Lebby’s fingerprints on it. It means having a defense that flirts with … OK, I’ll stop. You get it.
A 4-8 record might not reflect drastic improvement, but you’ll notice something important with that projection that’s arguably of equal importance to that Egg Bowl stunner. Do you see any eggs laid? I don’t. I see a slate that doesn’t feature losses that sting as bad as getting demolished by Toledo. There’s value in that. In order to get out of the SEC basement, beating non-Power Conference foes matters, too.
Lebby isn’t winning SEC Coach of the Year or getting the Bulldogs into the national conversation in 2025, but he’s at least showing signs that a foundation is in progress. That’s Mississippi State’s biggest win of 2025.
On second thought, nah, the biggest win is still the Egg Bowl.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
