Missouri sports betting: Will Mizzou be playing CFP-worthy football for December’s online launch?

Sports betting launches in Missouri on December 1, 2025 — right in time for the College Football Playoff, NFL Playoffs and the bulk of the NBA regular season.

Folks in the Show-Me State have been waiting for some time to bet on their favorite teams (any teams, really), and after the bill legalizing Missouri online sports betting was passed last November, it’s about to become a reality. Naturally, that makes us here at Saturday Down South wonder… will the Mizzou Tigers be playing CFP-worthy football when Dec. 1 rolls around?

As of August 5, the top sportsbooks around the country don’t exactly love Mizzou’s chances. The Tigers’ preseason over/under win total currently sits at 7.5, with the under favored at -145 at BetMGM.

Other Missouri odds are similarly foreboding. For example, Mizzou to the 12-team Playoff sits at +800 via DraftKings — on par with teams such as Georgia Tech, TCU and Baylor. The Tigers hold the 12th-longest odds among SEC programs, behind the likes of Oklahoma, South Carolina and Auburn.

Hold on. We need to revisit something really quick.

Yep, that says 7.5. It’s not just BetMGM undervaluing Mizzou so blatantly, either. FanDuel’s win total for the Tigers is even lower at 6.5 (but the over is -164) while DraftKings and Caesars both align with BetMGM at 7.5.

The Tigers could be CFP-bound by season’s end, but they could also take a slight dip following back-to-back 10-win seasons. I’m not here to convince you which of those outcomes will come true — there are just too many new pieces to fit together on offense for me to take a stance one way or the other. I am very confident, however, that Mizzou over 7.5 wins is among the best value picks one can make right now as it pertains to SEC football.

While Missouri bettors can’t hammer the over, Mizzou may blow well past 8 wins and play the most important football of the Eli Drinkwitz era to date, just in time for launch.

Mizzou is being undervalued as a CFP contender

To reach the College Football Playoff the Tigers are going to need to post at least 10 wins. Depending on how the rest of the sport fares, even that might not be enough. We’ll address why later.

The Tigers’ schedule pits them against just 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 25 of the preseason coaches poll: Alabama (No. 8), South Carolina (No. 13) and Texas A&M (No. 21). As you can see below, all 3 of those games will be played in Columbia.

Auburn and Oklahoma will certainly present some challenges on the road — both could also easily join the 3 mentioned above as ranked teams come season’s end — but Vanderbilt and Arkansas are both considered to be bottom-tier SEC teams heading into the season.

The Tigers will almost certainly earn gimme-wins against the likes of Central Arkansas, Louisiana and UMass. On top of that, they get their 3 most arduous opponents at home, face their toughest nonconference opponent at home (Kansas) and battle similarly talented competition on the road. By all measures, this is a laughably tame schedule. There should be some soul-searching done in Columbia if Mizzou can’t find at least 8 wins here (7 if you’re using FanDuel).

I’d argue the win total total should be placed higher because, even removed from the schedule, Beau Pribula, Ahmad Hardy and Kevin Coleman are all quite talented and give the Tigers offense a high ceiling. There’s definitely some boom-or-bust potential with the unit as a whole, though.

Hardy is primed for a true CFB arrival after lighting it up at ULM, where he totaled 1,352 yards with 13 rushing touchdowns and 5.7 yards per carry as a freshman. Kevin Coleman, Mississippi State’s only receiver with a pulse last year, desperately needed a change of scenery and should see improved QB play with Beau Pribula, who played exceptionally well in his few appearances behind Drew Allar at Penn State. There are some steps to be taken as a passer, but I’d buy stock in Pribula’s ability to move the ball down the field with these pieces.

(Quick aside. Eli Drinkwitz insisted at SEC Media Days that there is a QB battle between Pribula and Sam Horn, but Pribula’s dual-threat abilities can’t go unnoticed and should complement Hardy quite well. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t win the job by at least Week 2 vs. Kansas.)

Defensively, the Tigers could be dangerous. Missouri boasts more returning production on that side of the ball than any other SEC team, and that’s without mentioning the additions of Georgia transfer Damon Wilson off the edge and freshman All-American LB Josiah Trotter out of West Virginia. Jalen Catalon had 5 interceptions at UNLV last season and will fit in well with what should be one of the better secondary units in the league.

That’s all fine and good. Time to be a buzzkill…

With the way this schedule shakes out, there is legitimate CFP upside and legitimate reason for optimism for those looking to bet on the Tigers in Missouri come December, too. After all, we’ve already mentioned how tame Mizzou’s road schedule is.

Now the question is this: If Mizzou’s offense clicks and the defense performs as expected, will 10 wins be enough for Missouri sports bettors to bet on their team in a CFP quarterfinal and beyond?

Likely not. Sorry to be a buzzkill.

Let’s say the Tigers finish 10-2 with losses to Alabama at home and Oklahoma or Auburn on the road. In this hypothetical scenario, the Tigers’ best win would come against a hopefully ranked South Carolina squad, with a spattering of good wins against Texas A&M at home and one of Auburn/Oklahoma on the road. If you want to throw Kansas in the “good wins” category too, I won’t stop you.

Now, consider the likes of Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and aforementioned Oklahoma, as well as Illinois, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan in the Big Ten. Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame will be hard to keep away from the table, and there has to be at least one Big 12, ACC and G5 representative in the field of 12. And what if the ACC or Big 12 decide to put 2 Playoff-caliber teams in the mix?

Assuming Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas have the seasons we are expecting and considering the Tigers’ tame schedule, 10-2 Mizzou figures to be in trouble if more than 2 of the teams listed in bold also make it to 10 wins, right? And what if Oklahoma beats the Tigers during the regular season, could the 9-3 Sooners leapfrog Mizzou thanks to their brutal schedule? You could say similar things about a hypothetical 9-3 Florida.

We could continue this “what if” discourse for hours — but right now there’s only 1 Missouri opponent I’d say is a lock to finish the season in the top 25: Alabama, with South Carolina not far behind.

Ultimately, for the same reason I think Missouri over 7.5 wins is as close to automatic as you can get, Mizzou to the CFP is not a bet I’d advise unless you’re confident the Tigers can win 11 games. There just does not seem to be enough opportunity for résumé-building wins on the schedule looking through a preseason lens.

But that’s why they play the games, huh?

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.