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Missouri vs. Texas A&M is the lone matchup between top 25 teams on the SEC’s slate in Week 6.
This is a matchup featuring 2 programs who are still alive in the College Football Playoff discussion as the calendar flips to October. However, both teams struggled at times throughout the month of September — setting up an interesting matchup to see who can earn their first signature win of 2024.
Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:
Missouri vs. Texas A&M betting lines
Lines via DraftKings:
Spread: Missouri +2.5 (-110) | Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 48 points (-112) | Under 48 points (-108)
Betting trends to know for Missouri
Missouri is…
- 2-2 against the spread in 2024
- 9-9 against the spread on the the road in the Eli Drinkwitz era
- 19-16 against the spread vs. SEC opponents in the Eli Drinkwitz era
- 8-5 against the spread as an underdog of 7 points or fewer in the Eli Drinkwitz era
Betting trends to know for Texas A&M
Texas A&M is…
- 1-4 against the spread in 2024
- 1-1 against the spread when favored by under 3 points in 2024
- 0-4 against the spread at home in 2024
Advanced Stats preview
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- Missouri rushing offense success rate: 49.6% (26th)
- Texas A&M rushing defense success rate: 37.9% (46th)
This looks like a big advantage for Missouri, but a word of caution here that will be applicable throughout this story: Mizzou’s strength-of-schedule to this point in the season is highly-questionable. Mizzou’s SOS ranks 120th nationally, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (compared to 28th for A&M). That means these numbers should be taken with at least a decent-sized grain-of-salt. On the other hand, Mizzou does have solid schedule-adjusted numbers on offense. GameOnPaper’s schedule-adjusted EPA metric rates Mizzou’s offense as the 21st-best in the country. From a rushing perspective, Mizzou is 29th nationally in EPA per rush, per GameOnPaper.
Texas A&M’s rush defense was very poor in its season-opening loss to Notre Dame. The Aggies let the Fighting Irish pile up rushing yardage on the ground in that game, but they seem to have made some adjustments in recent weeks. In Week 3, Florida and an EPA-per-rush in the 15th percentile, according to GameOnPaper. Bowling Green and Arkansas also put up negative numbers in that category vs. the A&M defense.
- Texas A&M rushing offense success rate: 49% (31st)
- Missouri rushing defense success rate: 31.6% (10th)
With Texas A&M’s struggles in the passing game to start the year, the Aggies have leaned heavily on their rushing attack. Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels both have individual rushing success rates north of 45%. The QB run game is also a big part of the offense, particularly with Marcel Reed. As of this writing, it’s unclear if it will be Reed or Conner Weigman under center for the Aggies on Saturday. But regardless of who gets the nod, Texas A&M will almost certainly need to find success on the ground in order to move the ball against Missouri.
Missouri’s rush defense perhaps deserves the most scrutiny given the level of competition the Tigers have faced so far. Per GameOnPaper’s methodology, 2 of Mizzou’s 3 FBS opponents in 2024 rank outside of the top 100 in rushing success rate. The other is Vanderbilt, who ranks 29th. The Commodores had a 38% rushing success rate — plus 3 explosive rushes — against Mizzou, but they actually enjoyed even more success in the passing game. Despite its top-10 ranking in success rate, this is a Mizzou rush defense that is largely untested going into this matchup against Texas A&M.
Passing success rate
- Missouri passing offense success rate: 48.4% (25th)
- Texas A&M passing defense success rate: 36.4% (42nd)
Missouri’s passing game was billed as an elite unit coming into the year. That’s because the Tigers returned quarterback Brady Cook as well as star receivers Luther Burden and Theo Wease, amongst others. However, the Tigers haven’t quite played their best game yet even against a relatively soft nonconference slate. Cook’s passer efficiency rating currently sits at 136.3, which is much closer to his 2022 production (133.2) than it is to his 2023 breakout (157.2). Burden only has 19 catches through 4 games and Wease has yet to find the end zone this season. In fact, no one other than Burden (4) has a receiving TD so far in 2024. This is supposed to be the unit that gives Missouri a CFP-caliber ceiling, so the Tigers will hope to see some improvement quickly.
Texas A&M’s pass defense has been good, but not great to start the season. The good news is that things seem to be headed in the right direction. The Aggies’ pass defense was pretty inefficient in its wins over Florida and Bowling Green (relative to opponent strength), but they put up good numbers against an explosive Arkansas offense over the weekend. If Missouri plays well, it should have the edge in this matchup — but Texas A&M’s secondary is no pushover.
- Texas A&M passing offense success rate: 37.3% (103rd)
- Missouri passing defense success rate: 31.7% (12th)
Texas A&M’s passing game has been a significant concern to start the season. The Aggies have managed it well, all things considered, since Weigman went 12-for-30 in a season-opening loss to Notre Dame. Weigman’s status for Saturday is still unknown, but neither him nor Reed has been particularly efficient as a passer this season. Reed is averaging just 7.3 yards per attempt and only has a big-time throw rate of 2.3%, per PFF. That’s tied for 98th nationally amongst quarterbacks with at least 80 drop backs this season.
Missouri’s pass defense has been solid to start the year. The Tigers rank 14th nationally in EPA-per-drop back allowed, per GameOnPaper. This is also an area where Mizzou actually has been tested by its schedule, as Boston College and Vanderbilt both have solid passing numbers so far in 2024. Barring something unexpected occurring, this matchup figures to be a significant edge for Missouri.
1 other key: Does Missouri’s offense have another gear?
As mentioned above, it’s been a relatively slow start for the Tigers offensively this year. Per CollegeFootballData, the Tigers rank 112th nationally in offensive explosiveness. They’ve been especially poor in that area in the passing game, where they rank 127th out of 134 FBS teams.
That’s very uncharacteristic for this Missouri team. Last year, for example, the Tigers were in the 82nd percentile in offensive explosiveness en route to a double-digit win season. It’s been an extremely sharp drop-off for the Tigers, especially when you consider that they brought back their offensive coordinator, quarterback and 2 leading receivers from last year’s team. Not to mention the relatively weak slate of defenses Mizzou has seen to this point in 2024.
It’s led to some speculation that Missouri may be saving its best stuff on offense for a more difficult part of its schedule. If that’s the case, we might find out more this weekend about what this Mizzou offense can really do. If not, Missouri is going to have a tough time reaching the lofty expectations it was saddled with back in the preseason.
Of course, Texas A&M’s defense isn’t necessarily going to comply. The Aggies have been very good on defense this year, particularly in limiting explosive plays. The Aggies have a havoc rate in the 82nd percentile nationally entering this week’s contest, per GameOnPaper. The front 7 and the secondary can share credit for that performance — its 7 interceptions is tied for the SEC lead on the year and its 32 tackles for loss ranks tied for 4th.
Whoever claims the edge in the explosive plays battle between Missouri’s offense and Texas A&M’s defense should be in great position to win this game.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
