Mizzou Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Tigers in 2025
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Two things can be true at the same time with Mizzou.
One is that a 21-5 stretch in 2 years with consecutive seasons of double-digit victories was beyond what anyone could’ve hoped. Consecutive years of SEC relevance that finished by beating respected Big Ten teams in bowl games was, by all accounts, a flex-worthy feat from Eli Drinkwitz. It’s why he’s been given both a raise and an extension during those 2 years. Nobody will deny that.
But was 2024 a missed opportunity? It was, I’d argue. A favorable schedule with a team that had experience galore on offense was set up well. Or at least it appeared that it was set up well. Brady Cook struggled and then got hurt. Luther Burden III wasn’t the same player that he was in 2023. Nobody emerged as a go-to back for a rushing attack that was No. 81 in FBS in yards/carry. A defense that actually performed well after Blake Baker’s departure for LSU (more on that in a second) wasn’t enough to lift Mizzou to late-season Playoff relevance.
The question now is what awaits Mizzou with a largely new cast on offense. Are the Tigers going to slip back into mediocrity? Or are there reasons to believe that 2023-24 is more of the program’s new norm? The Crystal Ball will tell the tale.
For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.
So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:
Let’s continue with Mizzou:
The Beau Pribula experiment has a wide range of outcomes
What’s the range, you ask? I’d say it can be anything from 2024 Brock Vandagriff to 2021 Will Levis. Both of those guys were backups who stepped into starting roles at Kentucky, and they were tasked with showing that they could be true dual threats after they were limited at their previous stops. Vandagriff struggled with transitioning to what was demanded of him with working through his progressions and making downfield throws. Levis, on the other hand, progressed well enough with his arm to make it look like he was misused in the offense at Penn State.
Pribula also has the ability to make it look like he was misused at Penn State, but that’s far from a given. We’re talking about someone who attempted just 4 passes of 20 yards or more, 1 of which was completed and 2 of which were dropped. There’s a massive unknown with Pribula, but you wouldn’t have known it based on how aggressively he was pursued in the transfer portal ahead of Penn State’s Playoff run.
The question for Pribula, who has already shown that he’s an elite running quarterback, will become whether Kirby Moore and Drinkwitz can fine-tune his skills in the passing game enough to make Mizzou a 2-dimensional offense. It’ll still likely lean run-heavy with Ahmad Hardy coming over from Louisiana-Monroe after a 1,300-yard season as a true freshman, but the passing game will determine the upside of Mizzou’s offense.
Pribula will likely lean heavily on Mississippi State transfer Kevin Coleman Jr., who had more receiving yards than any SEC returner (932). He’ll step into the slot, where Burden became a star as a 3-year starter. Mizzou could use a red-zone lift from tight end Brett Norfleet, who showed flashes as a young tight end, as well as homegrown targets Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning.
A reliable passing attack would push Pribula far closer to the 2021 Levis end of the spectrum than 2024 Vandagriff.
Don’t sleep on how big 2024 was for the Mizzou defense moving forward
A casual college football fan wouldn’t know that, after Mizzou lost Baker and 5 defensive players to the NFL Draft, Corey Batoon led a top-20 scoring defense. He got a nice new contract as a result of that. And what else is significant? Mizzou ranks No. 5 in percentage of returning defensive production.
That’ll be headlined by an experienced defensive line with Zion Young, who should be the alpha with that group. That’s significant because there are new pieces like Georgia transfer Damon Wilson II and West Virginia transfer Josiah Trotter who can step in and not be tasked with being the defensive backbone from the jump. They’ve both got All-SEC upside even though they’re 2 of Mizzou’s youngest starters on that side of the ball.
And let’s back up for a second because this was completely overlooked by many, myself included. Drinkwitz’s Mizzou teams have had a low defensive floor at times. There was a fear that would be the case again in Year 1 of the post-Baker era, especially with all of that NFL talent gone. While 2024 was by no means a vintage unit — it struggled against mobile quarterbacks — it still established that this scheme won’t be a liability.
There’s no reason why Mizzou can’t quietly take another step forward after avoiding major regression in 2024.
Mizzou’s Over/Under Win Total
Odds (via BetMGM)
- Over 7.5 wins: +120
- Under 7.5 wins: -145
Game-by-game predictions
Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Tigers.
Week 1: vs. Central Arkansas (W)
Much like we saw 2 years ago, we’ll see multiple quarterbacks have moments in a Mizzou opener … but Sam Horn will still be runner-up.
Week 2: vs. Kansas (W)
People don’t understand how much these programs hate each other. People also might not understand that Jalon Daniels is still one of the better quarterbacks in the sport when healthy. Against an experienced Mizzou defense, though, he can’t quite muster enough clutch conversions to win on the road. Pribula wins his first career start against a Power Conference opponent.
Week 3: vs. Louisiana (W)
Don’t sleep on this matchup. Louisiana was a 10-win team last year, and former LSU/Ole Miss quarterback Walker Howard is expected to take over. This could be more of a grind than some might think. But Louisiana’s defense is overwhelmed by Hardy and unable to string together key stops. A 28-17 victory keeps Mizzou unbeaten.
Week 4: vs. South Carolina (L)
This will be a fascinating test for both programs, who usually face off much later in the season. Last year, South Carolina ended Mizzou’s 5-year win streak after it looked like Luther Burden III delivered a dagger to win it. This year, the lack of an established passing game identity hurts the Tigers. Instead of going blow for blow with LaNorris Sellers, Mizzou spends the second half playing catch-up. That leads to too many mistakes and a chance to get into October as a top-15 team slips away.
Week 5: vs. UMass (W)
We mustn’t ever forget that these teams played at UMass last year. In a more fitting setting this time around, Mizzou rolls and the Coleman breakout game happens in a blowout win.
Week 6: Bye
The Tigers take their first bye of the season to prepare for the meat of their schedule.
Week 7: vs. Alabama (L)
This has “sleepy Alabama start” written all over it with an 11 a.m. kickoff in Columbia. After consecutive emotional victories, the Tide find themselves trailing at halftime against a fresh Mizzou squad off the bye week. But unlike last year when Alabama folded in a game like that, the offense roars back in the second half. Ryan Grubb works his magic to scheme open multiple touchdowns for Germie Bernard and a game with “upset alert” potential avoids a stunning result.
Week 8: at Auburn (W)
Mizzou has the opportunity to send a reeling Auburn team into an even deeper spiral. A year after Mizzou’s defense played a massive part in Jackson Arnold’s transfer from Oklahoma, he’s forced to relive that experience. Arnold is benched after Mizzou walks into Jordan-Hare and shuts down the inconsistent Auburn offense. The potent Mizzou rushing attack wears down an exhausted Auburn defense and the Tigers hand Hugh Freeze a loss that’s just as demoralizing as the 2024 Cook hospital game.
Week 9: at Vanderbilt (W)
Remember last year when Vanderbilt went into Columbia and lost on a missed kick in overtime in a game that made us all question if Mizzou was any good? It turned out to be arguably Mizzou’s best win of the regular season. This time around, a pair of run-first quarterbacks try to put their respective teams on their backs. What’s the difference? Mizzou’s defense makes the second-half adjustments and keeps Vandy out of the end zone. A 24-14 victory on the road clinches bowl eligibility for Mizzou and keeps distant Playoff hopes alive heading into November.
Week 10: Bye
The Tigers’ second idle week comes before their final stretch of 4 games.
Week 11: vs. Texas A&M (L)
This is quietly a pivotal game for teams that are trying to hold onto Playoff hopes. This game starts off with Mizzou getting out to a 14-0 lead that feels like a role reversal of last year. But as Marcel Reed often does, he keeps battling. The Aggies stick to what they know — and an elite rushing attack with a passing game that can move the chains — and erase that deficit. Mizzou has a last-ditch drive in a 28-24 game, but Pribula is picked off by Will Lee III and the Tigers are on the wrong end of another thriller.
Week 12: vs. Mississippi State (W)
Mississippi State isn’t quite the doormat that it was a year earlier, but it has a major flaw. It cannot stop the run, especially late in the season with depth being an issue. Moore leans heavily on that. That yields a 300-yard day with Pribula and Hardy both hitting the century mark. Instead of the Texas A&M loss sending Mizzou into a spiral, it claws back with its most dominant offensive line showing of the conference slate.
Week 13: at Oklahoma (L)
Sensing a theme yet? Elite defensive minds will have answers for Mizzou’s offense. While Coleman is still one of the most underrated players in the conference and Norfleet emerges as an All-SEC candidate at tight end, it’s the lack of passing game consistency that hurts Mizzou against a loaded Brent Venables defense. R Mason Thomas makes life miserable for an indecisive Pribula. Against a Mizzou team that John Mateer ultimately turned down, he and the Sooners get the last laugh.
Week 14: at Arkansas (W)
Timing is on Mizzou’s side. In a game that’s overshadowed by the firing of Sam Pittman, the Tigers take advantage of an unmotivated Arkansas squad. Hardy does his best to put the finishing touches on an SEC regular season rushing title while Pribula is completely dialed in. Just as it did a couple weeks earlier against Mississippi State, the Mizzou offense is the wrong team to face for a defense experiencing late-season depth issues. The Tigers win the Battle Line Trophy for the 9th time in 10 years.
2025 projection: 8-4 (4-4), 9th in SEC
A favorable start to the schedule has Mizzou fans wondering if dark-horse Playoff contention is on the table. But some tough losses in SEC play have the Tigers on the outside looking in.
12-team Playoff berth? No
The timing is brutal because obviously, the 2023 team would’ve made the 12-team Playoff and been a tough out. But in fitting Mizzou fashion, there was unlucky timing. And a 9-3 regular season was, in theory, good enough for Playoff consideration in 2024. The problem was when those losses happened and how decisive they were.
So what’s the bad timing with 2025? It’s an extremely favorable schedule, but it’s an offense in transition. I’m not convinced that Mizzou will be able to stretch the field. As much as I love the promise of the ground game, I’m not bullish on the idea of Pribula consistently attacking over the top enough to keep defenses honest. Against the elite defensive minds in the conference, that proves to be a problem.
At the same time, go back to the original point. If you would’ve told a Mizzou fan entering 2023 that a 3-year stretch of winning a minimum of 8 regular season games awaited, they would’ve fist-pumped loudly. A 29-9 stretch for Years 4-6 of the Drinkwitz era was ideal in every way.
The floor has been elevated in the middle part of the 2020s. That’s not a bad place to be. It sure as heck beats the state of mediocrity that Mizzou was stuck in before 2023.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
