Monday Down South: Arch Manning needs all the patience he can get. Texas is running out

Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 6 in the SEC.

We need to talk about Arch

Among the many problems plaguing Arch Manning right now, the single biggest problem remains the hype that preceded him.

Imagine watching an inexperienced, 3.5-star recruit named Arch Everyman struggle on the road against the likes of Ohio State and Florida. Are you thinking “what the heck is wrong with this kid? Is this kid hurt?” Probably not. Probably you’re thinking something like, “let’s give this kid some time.” He’s not even halfway through his first season as a starter. And it’s not like it’s all bad. Size, arm, mobility — he has the tools. There are glimpses of real potential, when it all comes together. Live with the growing pains, and who knows? In a year or two, the finished product might be worth the wait.

But of course, Texas did not bet the ranch on Arch Everyman, and is certainly not in wait-and-see mode after opening atop the preseason polls. The last thing the Longhorns are in the mood for is a lecture about patience. What were those 2 years waiting for Manning to ripen behind the increasingly uninspiring Quinn Ewers, if not patience? Oddsmakers were not preaching patience when they installed Arch as the preseason favorite with the best odds to win the Heisman. Pro scouts were not preaching patience when they projected him as the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, even after his own family insisted he had no intention of leaving school early. National brands were not preaching patience when they inked him to endorsement deals worth millions of dollars. I was not preaching patience when I touted him as the SEC’s most valuable player. (OK, so that was as much about the absence of established stars across the league as it was about my confidence in Arch, alright? Still, I plead guilty.) Sacrificing what was supposed to be a prime title shot for a round of Normal Sophomore Stuff was never part of the bargain.

Whether that’s entirely fair to Manning is debatable, but also largely beside the point. The Longhorns are 0-2 vs. Power 4 opponents and in the midst of one of the most rapid declines on record for a preseason No. 1, tumbling out of the AP poll altogether barely a month removed from topping it. Their Playoff odds are hanging by a thread with Oklahoma on deck and 3 more currently ranked teams (Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M) still on the docker. After 2 consecutive seasons in the CFP semifinals with a quarterback much of the fan base suspected was holding them back, they’re on the verge of being eliminated from the CFP race before mid-October.

It is true that, as always, a slumping QB is a convenient scapegoat for a team without much else to hang its hat on. Texas struggled in its 29-21 loss at Florida in all phases. The defense, ostensibly a strength before Saturday, was a wreck in The Swamp, allowing 457 yards, 22 first downs and 29 points to a Gators offense that had managed just 33 points total in its first 3 games against FBS opponents. Manning’s counterpart, DJ Lagway, actually looked like a blue-chip quarterback coming into his own in arguably the best outing of his career. Coming off a couple of miserable performances against LSU and Miami, Lagway turned in a career-high 94.9 QBR rating, best of the weekend by an SEC starter.

More relevantly where Manning was concerned, there was the offensive line, an even bigger wreck. Altogether, Arch was under some kind of duress on 25 of his 42 drop-backs against the Gators, per Pro Football Focus — an egregious pressure rate just shy of 60%. In addition to 6 sacks, Texas linemen were flagged for 6 penalties while failing to generate any semblance of a push on the ground. The Longhorns effectively abandoned the run in the first half, leaving both the overmatched front and their erratic quarterback to fend for themselves in comeback mode. PFF charged true freshman Nick Brooks, thrust into the first meaningful action of his career following an injury to starting left guard Connor Stroh, with 8 pressures allowed and a flat 0.0 pass-blocking grade.

It’s also true that, given half a chance, Manning offered a couple of glimpses of why he was so touted in the first place. If your only window into his performance was the negativity, schadenfreude and outright haterade online, you might get the impression this guy is so broken he couldn’t throw the ball into a lake right now. Actually, there’s plenty of evidence otherwise. For the season, Manning is a respectable 15-for-32 on attempts of 20+ air yards, with roughly half of his total passing output coming on those completions; that includes 5 downfield connections against Florida, tied for the most of any FBS quarterback in Week 6. The one for the highlight was the second of his 2 touchdown passes, a 38-yard dime to Ryan Wingo on which he eluded the initial pressure and reset to deliver one of his more impressive strikes of the year.

One thing Arch cannot be accused of is lacking the juice to let it rip. It’s the other charges that tend to stick.

In fact, I would argue that the hits only make the misses that much more galling. In real time, the highlights have not mattered nearly as much as the long bouts of frustration. Although there was more scoring in The Swamp, the way the game unfolded felt similar to the opener at Ohio State, when Manning pulled out of a sustained funk just in time to uncork a series of tasty throws in a futile rally in the 4th quarter — too little, too late except to salvage a passable stat line. Again on Saturday, all 3 of Texas’ touchdowns against Florida came with the Longhorns already trailing by 2 scores, serving only to prolong the suspense in a game that was never really in doubt after halftime. (Excluding their opening possession of the game, the ‘Horns didn’t touch the ball again with the score within single digits until their last-ditch possession with less than a minute to play and no timeouts.) In between, their other 10 possessions yielded 6 punts, 4 3-and-outs, 2 interceptions and slapstick endings to both halves.

Manning’s reputation for chronic inaccuracy at this point might be slightly exaggerated due to the intense scrutiny on every ball that leaves his hands, but only slightly. The label is well-earned. For every memorable throw he’s made, he’s whiffed on another, often by missing his target in painfully obvious fashion. The main reason he’s managed to assemble a convincing highlight reel of downfield connections is simply that he’s taken so many shots. Per PFF, his 13 attempts of 20+ air yards were the most by an FBS quarterback in any game this season; the fact that the completed 5 of them paled next to the fact that seven of them clanged to the turf, and another was picked off. He is missing a lot.

The pressure, obviously, does not help. Unlike in the Ohio State game, most of Manning’s downfield attempts against Florida came with the pass rush bearing down; a couple of his wildest throws came with Gators quite literally in his face. Then again, while his shorthanded o-line was a liability, Arch didn’t do himself any favors with his languid pocket presence. As a rule, sacks are a QB stat, and Saturday was no exception. By PFF’s stopwatch, Manning averaged 3.58 seconds per drop-back, the most time for any FBS quarterback for the weekend with at least 20 reps. (On drop-backs that resulted in sacks, it was 3.50 seconds.) On more than 85% of those snaps, he had at least 2.5 seconds, again the highest rate in the country.

That was consistent with his season averages. For the year, Manning’s 3.24 seconds per drop-back currently leads the SEC; he’s getting (or taking) at least 2.5 seconds on an FBS-high 72.2% of those reps; and he’s averaging an SEC-high 12.0 yards per target. That could not possibly be a bigger departure from the screen-heavy attack operated last year by Quinn Ewers, who could not get the ball out of his hands fast enough.

But you don’t need a stopwatch or to wade that deep into the analytical weeds to recognize a flailing quarterback when you see one. Manning was hardly sharper on Saturday when he was kept clean than he was under duress. Both of his interceptions were served up confidently from a clean pocket, as was another shoulda-been pick rifled directly into the hands of a Florida linebacker so stunned to become the intended receiver he failed to bring it down. The first INT was a late-and-lofty lob that hung in the air just long enough for a trailing safety to close the gap on a wideout who initially appeared to have him beat. (Credit where it’s due on that one to Gators DB Devin Moore for the athleticism to track down an ill-advised, under-thrown ball.) The second INT was a high-and-wide dart straight to the numbers of a waiting safety stationed 8 yards behind Manning’s intended target.

Texas’ final chance with the ball was a fitting end. The Longhorns, trailing 29-21, took over at their own 31-yard line with 55 seconds remaining, no timeouts, and an opportunity to force overtime. On first down, Manning took the snap, surveyed the field, attempted to spin out of a collapsing pocket, and took a shot hard enough to pop his helmet off as he was slammed down for a 12-yard loss. By rule, Manning was forced to sit out the next play due to the lost helmet, which also cost the Longhorns a 10-second run-off. On 2nd down, backup Matthew Caldwell came on for his first and only meaningful play to date in a UT uniform, an accurate strike to Ryan Wingo that gained 26 yards and a first down; a hands-to-the-face penalty against Florida tacked on 15 more, moving the ‘Horns across midfield as Texas fans collectively screamed “whoever this guy is, leave him in!” at their televisions. Instead, Arch trotted back out to run the final 3 plays: An incomplete pass, followed by Manning scrambling into what amounted to a game-ending sack, culminating in a chaotic effort to spike the ball just as the clock expired.

Hopefully it goes without saying that no amount of wishcasting is going to make Caldwell, a journeyman on his 4th school in 5 years — previous stops: Jacksonville State, Gardner-Webb and Troy — an actual threat to overtake the multimillion-dollar face of the program on the depth chart. Steve Sarkisian never wavered on Ewers when the base was clamoring for Manning, and that had the makings of a real controversy. Arch Everyman might have to look over his shoulder; the very presence of an obscurity like Caldwell as QB2 is testament enough to the fact that Arch Manning never has to. Texas is too deeply invested in his potential, financially and otherwise.

It should also go without saying that the Longhorns were not investing in a name on the back of the jersey. The verdict is not in after 7 career starts. There is still time for Manning to correct course, come into his own, and make the overreaction to his rocky start look as premature and overwrought as the preseason hype does right now. But with every setback, the growing curve gets a little steeper while the backlash only gets more intense. The more the rest of the world is convinced that his last name is all that’s keeping him on the field, the bigger the burden it’s going to be.

Georgia: No rush

Watching Georgia’s routine, 35-14 win over Kentucky, I found myself asking, “where are the dudes?” How did UGA’s vaunted defensive line get so ordinary, so fast?

Not that any front is likely to compare favorably to, say, the 2021 national championship d-line that rotated 5 future first-round picks. Even at Georgia, dudes like Jalen Carter and Travon Walker don’t grow on trees. But the current front appears to lack any notable difference-maker at all, especially when it comes to the pass rush.

The potential is there, at least according to the recruiting rankings. The production, so far, is not. The pass rush was underwhelming against Tennessee and Alabama, failing to record a sack in either game. (Technically, the Bulldogs did log an official sack against Alabama, but it was the result of dropping a wide receiver behind the line on a trick play, not the quarterback.) In 3 SEC games, PFF has the Dawgs down for a pedestrian 23% pressure rate, the vast majority of what heat they have managed to generate coming not from the front but from inside linebackers Chris Cole, Raylen Wilson and CJ Allen as blitzers. Cole and Wilson are tied for the team lead with 7 QB pressures apiece in those games; no d-lineman, including edge defenders, has more than 2. A garbage-time takedown by reserve Nnamdi Ogboko against Kentucky was the first sack by a d-lineman on the season.

It’s early enough to chalk that up to small sample size, although the results against the Volunteers and Crimson Tide aren’t very encouraging. Joey Aguilar and Ty Simpson both had time and both took advantage of it in breakout performances, combining for 651 yards and 6 touchdowns passing on 8.7 yards per attempt. The best player on the front, nose tackle Christen Miller, is a future pro but better suited to run-stuffing than getting after the passer. The starting edge rushers, Gabe Harris Jr. and Quintavius Johnson, have been nondescript. A couple of massively touted freshmen, Isaiah Gibson and Elijah Griffin, are still breaking in. The portal additions, Elo Modozie (Army) and Josh Horton (Miami), are well down the depth chart.

So this group is not on pace to be drafted en masse by the Philadelphia Eagles. Given the talent on hand, any given Saturday could be the one the pieces click together to unlock a classic, borderline NFL-ready Kirby Smart front. In the meantime, every extra rusher the Dawgs have to send across the line in an effort to turn up the heat leaves them a little more vulnerable on the back end, which isn’t what it once was, either.

Dude of the Week: Florida WR Dallas Wilson

Wilson, a 6-3, 213-pound true freshman, made a splash in the spring but was MIA in Florida’s first 4 games due to a foot injury. His debut in the Gators’ win over Texas was worth the wait. Making up for lost time, Wilson hauled in a 9-yard reception on his first college snap and kept on going, finishing with 6 catches, 111 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an instant reputation as a specimen.

Somehow, Wilson juuuust missed the cut for 5-star status according to 247Sports’ composite rating, landing on one side of the line while classmate Vernell Brown III fell on the other. For an offense that was fairly desperate to upgrade its talent level at wideouts, it’s a distinction without a difference. Between them, Wilson and Brown combined for 183 of Florida’s 284 receiving yards against the Longhorns on 20.3 yards per catch.

Dud of the Week: Texas’ Ground Game

Arch Manning takes the blame for the stench emanating from Texas’ offense this season, and deserves his fair share of it. But the Longhorns’ inability and/or unwillingness to run the ball made his job significantly harder. With CJ Baxter on the shelf for the second week in a row, Tre Wisner was the only running back who touched the ball, logging a grand total of 8 carries for 11 yards.

Notebook

1.) Last year, Vanderbilt pulled of one of the most monumental upsets in SEC history with an incredible 24-minute edge in time of possession. This year? Not so much. Alabama flipped the script in a 30-14 win in Tuscaloosa, hogging the ball for nearly 15 minutes more than Vandy while limiting the ‘Dores to just 53 snaps.

Another notable departure from last year’s game, which Vanderbilt led from start to finish: The Commodores were forced to play from behind down the stretch, freeing Bama’s pass rush to disrupt Diego Pavia in a second-half shutout. Pavia got off to a good start, but between his limitations under pressure and a pair of crucial red-zone turnovers — a fumble in the first half, followed by an interception in the second — it one of his worst days in a Vandy uniform.

2.) In the portions of the game when Vanderbilt’s offense was clicking it was fun to watch. My favorite play design of the weekend was a nifty little shovel pass that saw Pavia fake a handoff to RB Sedrick Alexander going one direction, only for Alexander to reverse field to receive the shovel going the other way.

The Commodores ran this twice on a 2nd-quarter touchdown drive, both times successfully. The first time (see above) gained 15 yards to extend the drive on 3rd-and-10. The second time, they simply flipped the direction to finish the drive in the end zone.

3.) There wasn’t very much to the video of Pavia jawing with some Alabama fans on the way to the locker room after the defeat. But I was entertained by one of his Vandy teammates shouting at the fans, “you’re talking to kids! You’re talking to kids!” Pavia, notoriously, is 24 years old.

4.) What in the world was Billy Napier doing on Florida’s final possession? The Gators led late, 29-21, with a fresh set of downs inside the 2-minute warning. Texas, having burned all 3 timeouts on Florida’s previous possession, had no way to stop the clock. So why did Napier call a timeout?

As he explained after the game, the clock was already stopped due to left tackle Austin Barber losing his helmet on the previous play, and wasn’t set to start again until the next snap. (Losing a helmet inside of 2 minutes carries a 10-second run-off, which Texas declined, thereby stopping the clock.) Napier, wanting one of his best o-linemen in the game on a crucial 3rd down, opted to spend a timeout to allow Barber to stay on the field. Incredibly, the guy getting paid $7.4 million a year to understand this stuff had a better grasp of the rule than his online critics. Florida still lost a yard on the ensuing play, forcing a punt back to Texas for one final drive.

5.) The injury bug bit Texas hard on both sides of the ball in its loss to Florida, nowhere more so than in the absence of top cornerback Malik Muhammad, a game-day scratch. With Muhammad looking on, the Gators picked on his understudies, sophomore Kobe Black and true freshman Graceson Littleton, completing 6-0f-7 targets for 153 yards at their expense, per PFF. Both of Dallas Wilson’s touchdowns were charged to Black in his first career start in Muhammad’s place.

6. Auburn and Mississippi State are not the most formidable offenses, but Texas A&M’s defense is off to a nearly perfect start in conference play on 3rd down. Across both games, A&M held the Tigers and Bulldogs to a single 3rd-down conversion on a combined 23 attempts.

7.) Oklahoma QB Michael Hawkins Jr. looked the part in his first start of the season, a 44-0 romp over Kent State. (Thank you, Sooners, for preserving a KSU cover at -44.5.) What does that mean for this weekend’s date against Texas in the Red River Showdown? Not a dang thing. Hawkins is tentatively expected to start again against the Longhorns in place of the injured John Mateer, who has not been ruled out but remains a long shot.

Moment of Zen of the Week

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.