Happy New Year from us at Saturday Down South. We hope you enjoy the rest of this season’s bowl games including Thursday’s first-ever semifinal contests featuring SEC champion Alabama.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl — Ole Miss vs TCU (-3.5): Wednesday, Noon, EST
Christopher: I can’t imagine a weakened Ole Miss offense finding enough success against the Horned Frogs to keep pace in a high-scoring game. That means it’s on the Rebels defense to keep the game in the teens or at least the 20s. Can Bo Wallace make big-time plays against a good defense without making mistakes? Can the Rebels slow down Trevone Boykin and an offense averaging 46.8 points per game in a tough Big 12? That’s a lot to ask. TCU 31, Ole Miss 21.
Brad: This is the game to watch outside of Thursday’s two semifinal contests, a matchup of Top 10 teams who finished just outside of the College football Playoff. One of the nation’s top units against the pass will square off against TCU’s Air Raid attack, much-improved under Trevone Boykin. With a win, the Horned Frogs should finish in the Top 5. TCU 30, Ole Miss 24.
Fiesta Bowl — Boise State vs. Arizona (-3): Wednesday, 4:30 p.m., EST
Christopher: The Broncos again are the little engine that could. Only this Boise State team doesn’t intimidate many people. The Broncos played a respectable neutral-site game against Ole Miss to open the season, but never were going to win. RB Jay Ajayi likely will make a solid pro back, but Anu Solomon, Nick Wilson and company are young, talented and hungry. Arizona 27, Boise State 24.
Brad: Expects lots of points in what is always a wild bowl game, a favorite for the Broncos. The nation’s original BCS buster has appeared in the Fiesta twice since 2006, winning both games. The Broncos were pass-happy then with quarterback Kellen Moore and now battle the opposition with a different look, a steady dose of Jay Ajayi between the tackles. Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon is hoping to perform better than he did last time out, a blowout loss to Oregon during which he was benched. Boise State 34, Arizona 24.
Orange Bowl — Georgia Tech vs Mississippi State (-6.5): Wednesday, 8 p.m., EST
Christopher: Motivation always is a strong consideration when projecting bowl games, and one has to wonder about Mississippi State’s. A part of the national championship picture most of the season, the Bulldogs lost two of three, then saw defensive coordinator Geoff Collins head to Florida. A slew of Mississippi State players are at least considering a jump to the NFL as well. The Bulldogs better be focused against a disciplined triple-option team that hasn’t given anyone an easy out. Mississippi State 28, Georgia Tech 27.
Brad: Without defensive coordinator Geoff Collins who recently took the same position at Florida, stopping Georgia Tech’s option offense will be a challenge for Mississippi State. Then again, the Yellow Jackets don’t have the personnel on defense to match Dak Prescott and Co. either. Expect over 500 yards rushing — combined — in South Beach. Mississippi State 34, Georgia Tech 31.
Outback Bowl — Wisconsin vs. Auburn (-6.5): Thursday, Noon, EST
Christopher: Speaking of motivation, one has to wonder how the Badgers will respond to getting bludgeoned in the Big Ten championship game. Melvin Gordon no longer is chasing the all-time single-season rushing record. As bad as the Auburn defense has been, it’s seen high-caliber backs this season and may be energized by the Will Muschamp hiring. The Auburn offense against this unheralded Wisconsin defense is one of the most intriguing of the bowl season to me, even though Ohio State shredded them last time out. I think the Tigers have enough offensive weaponry here. Auburn 35, Wisconsin 28.
Brad: Will Muschamp’s lucky he doesn’t have to scheme against Heisman finalist Melvin Gordon in his final college game before a jump to the NFL. The nation’s leader in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns is licking his chops against a front four that’s struggled in the SEC this season. Also playing his final game is Auburn senior quarterback Nick Marshall. He’ll be the facilitator one last time in Gus Malzahn’s run-blitz offense in what should be an exciting game. Auburn 42, Wisconsin 30.
Cotton Bowl — Baylor (-2.5) vs Michigan State: Thursday, 12:30 p.m., EST
Christopher: The Bears may have something to prove after getting left out of the College Football Playoff — barely. This isn’t the Michigan State of three years ago, and the Spartans have an offense capable of scoring on this Baylor defense. But the Michigan State defense isn’t what it was last season, and the team also just lost its respected defensive coordinator to Pitt. The Bears need to avenge its embarrassing bowl loss to UCF last year, and will. Baylor 35, Michigan State 28.
Brad: Art Briles has assured anyone who is listening that his Bears are over being snubbed in the College Football Playoff. We’ll see if that’s the case early against one of the nation’s better defenses. Baylor’s defense has struggled mightily at times and Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook is an underrated passer. Expect fireworks … for the Spartans. Michigan State 35, Baylor 31.
Citrus Bowl — Minnesota vs. Mizzou (-4.5): Thursday, 1 p.m., EST
Christopher: Has Missouri been one of the 10 best teams in the country the last two seasons, or have they done it by smoke and mirrors? The answer is both. Facing teams with elite talent — Top 5 type teams — the Tigers have struggled and looked out of place. But against fringe Top 25 teams, Missouri has dominated. That said, this isn’t a great matchup for Mizzou, which struggled for a half against Arkansas before the Razorbacks inexplicably abandoned the run. Minnesota is a physical, meat-grinder Big Ten team with a star running back in David Cobb and a good front seven on defense. The Golden Gophers avoid a fearsome pass rush by not passing and pull off the shocker. Minnesota 21, Missouri 17.
Brad: The Tigers can’t lose for a second time to the Big Ten this season, right? Outside of obvious struggles against top-ranked Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, Mizzou’s matured as a football team as this season has progressed, notably Maty Mauk. When Mauk avoids turnovers, the Tigers are a formidable Top 15 team, evidenced by their second straight SEC East title. Minnesota will turn up the pressure, but it won’t be enough. Missouri 24, Minnesota 21.
Rose Bowl — Oregon (-9.5) vs. Florida State: Thursday, 5 p.m., EST
Christopher: This matchup is historic in that it features two Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks and a team that’s won 29 consecutive games as the defending national champions. Oh, and it’s the first-ever College Football Playoff contest. First-round talent and CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is out for Oregon, but the Ducks have the best offense in the country, even better than TCU. Florida State and Jameis Winston have skated by on part luck, part skill, but that’s not going to be possible in this one. Oregon 42, Florida State 31.
Brad: Can you believe we get this great a matchup before the national championship? The College Football Playoff was made for this, a heavyweight bout in Pasadena featuring two elite quarterbacks. The Ducks have been knocking on the door for some time now, but going through the defending champs who are riding a 29-game winning streak is quite a challenge. Pick Oregon if you want to, but I’m going with the squad that has been there before and is playing with quite the chip on its shoulder. Florida State 38, Oregon 35.
Sugar Bowl — Ohio State vs. Alabama (-9): Thursday, 8:30 p.m., EST
Christopher: Some people question whether the Buckeyes should even be in this game after a loss to Virginia Tech, a down Big Ten and two deserving Big 12 teams in TCU and Baylor. Down to the third quarterback and without their offensive coordinator, one has to wonder whether Ohio State, which is well-coached and features a slew of skill players, peaked one game too early. Alabama should be rested and motivated, and Nick Saban knows Urban Meyer very well. This Alabama offense is more explosive than any Meyer faced while at Florida. Alabama 45, Ohio State 28.
Brad: Urban Meyer has his work cut out for him in New Orleans, pushing a third-team quarterback into the fire against a well-rested defense led by All-American safety Landon Collins (in his hometown no less). Alabama’s balanced offense led by Heisman finalist Amari Cooper will have success against a defense that isn’t as fast, but Buckeyes pass rush specialist Joey Bosa should not be overlooked. If T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry can find a crease and force Ohio State to play from behind, it could be a long evening for Cardale Jones inside the Superdome. Alabama 38, Ohio State 20.
Armed Forces Bowl — Houston vs. Pitt (-2): Friday, Noon, EST
Christopher: The Panthers have the best player on the field in James Conner, a 250-pound bulldozer who is scary on several weeks of rest. Pitt WR Tyler Boyd also will be a strong (first round?) NFL draft prospect in a season or two. But the Panthers are in the middle of a coaching change, and Houston has a stout defense. Some projected the Cougars as the New Year’s Six qualifier from the lower-tier FBS conferences, and they’re more than capable of sticking with a down Panthers team. Houston 27, Pitt 24.
Brad: Even with an above-average defense, can Houston contain Pitt’s James Conner if he runs angry? Probably not.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl — Iowa vs. Tennessee (-3.5): Friday, 3:20 p.m., EST
Christopher: The Vols need this bowl win to advance the Butch Jones marketing narrative. Jones has played it perfectly thus far — incremental progress that appeases the fan base but doesn’t elevate expectations too quickly. Joshua Dobbs represents hope and promise for 2015. But can Tennessee contend with a team that’s markedly stronger in the trenches? The offensive line should struggle, but the defensive line could hold its own, and Iowa’s offense isn’t great shakes. Tennessee 21, Iowa 20.
Brad: Joshua Dobbs is the future of Tennessee football, likely two more seasons as Butch Jones’ starting quarterback barring injury or regression. He can kick off a darkhorse 2015 Heisman campaign in Jacksonville with a big outing against Iowa in the Vols’ first postseason contest in four years. He may not even be Tennessee’s best player. That title goes to Derek Barnett, a pass-rushing freshman who will once again wreck opposing offensive linemen next fall. The Vols wins big in the Gator. Tennessee 41, Iowa 20.
Alamo Bowl — Kansas State vs. UCLA (-1): Friday, 6:45 p.m., EST
Christopher: It’s still relatively early for the power conferences this bowl season, but the Big 12 has face-planted while the Pac-12 may threaten to go undefeated. The Bruins never materialized as the national championship contender many thought they’d be, while Kansas State is a disciplined overachiever maxing out its talent. The Bruins defense is athletic enough to slow down QB Jake Waters and WR Tyler Lockett. UCLA 28, Kansas State 24.
Brad: Remember when these two teams were all the buzz in September? UCLA was a preseason national title candidate thanks to star quarterback Brett Hundley while Kansas State, coached by the great Bill Snyder, had a chance to jump into the Top 10 against Auburn during a Thursday night showdown in Manhattan, but turnovers derailed its upset bid. This battle of nine-win teams could come down to the final possession and the Bruins have the edge — where it counts — under center. UCLA 41, Kansas State 40.
Cactus Bowl — Oklahoma State vs. Washington (-6): Friday, 10:15 p.m., EST
Christopher: If you’re watching this game in the second half as an SEC fan, I’m assuming one of two things: you’ve bet money on it or you partied so hard on New Year’s Day that you slept late Friday and now can’t sleep. Oklahoma State needed a win to prevent complete disaster to close the season, but the Cowboys got that against Oklahoma. Washington’s defense is loaded with NFL talent, and the Huskies have something to prove in coach Chris Petersen’s first year in a power conference. Washington 28, Oklahoma State 17.
Brad: Will the Big XII please stand up? The Cowboys need to show up here since the Longhorns, Sooners and Mountaineers haven’t. Oklahoma State seems to like shootouts, especially in bowl games. Oklahoma State 34, Washington 33.
Birmingham Bowl — East Carolina vs. Florida (-6.5): Saturday, 1 p.m., EST
Christopher: Birmingham Bowl officials have to be thrilled. The Gators are a great fan base, the Pirates are an exciting, well-respected lower-tier FBS team and the game gets Saturday all to itself with fans frantically realizing football is about to disappear for many months. Florida’s defense is just good enough to slow down Justin Hardy and company, and its physical running game will have some success against ECU. Florida 24, East Carolina 17.
Brad: Shane Carden and the high-flying East Carolina passing game will certainly test Florida’s top-notch secondary, but the Pirates’ best days are behind them, notably that nationally-ranked 6-1 start this season. The primary gut-punch was a Hail Mary loss to UCF that squandered the American Athletic Conference title. In its second game against the SEC this fall, East Carolina will be bogged down by Florida’s pressure up front. Florida 20, East Carolina 14.
GoDaddy Bowl — Toledo (-3.5) vs Arkansas State: Sunday, 9 p.m., EST
Christopher: The Red Wolves finally found a permanent coach — or at least one who will stay more than one season. The Rockets may have gone 7-1 in the MAC, but that conference has been a disaster in bowl season. I’ll take the Arkansas State running game here over the Toledo air attack. Arkansas State 31, Toledo 28.
Brad: Want more college football on an NFL Playoff Sunday? Watch this. Arkansas State 23, Toledo 20.
