O’Gara: A new LSU? Yeah, but the 2020s Tigers still can’t get out of their own way in these openers
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Death, taxes and 2020s LSU teams finding weird ways to spoil season-openers.
Those are the guarantees in life.
LSU fans know this all too well. It doesn’t matter what head coach, coordinator or quarterback is running the show. If it’s a season-opening game, just set your watch to LSU allowing it to slip away. That was the reality as former Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks waltzed his way into the end zone for a USC game-winning touchdown on Sunday night in Las Vegas.
(The Trojans still would’ve had a chip-shot field goal attempt if Marks had been stopped.)
New season, same ending. Or beginning, I suppose. For the 5th consecutive season, that’s how the Tigers kicked off a season — 0-1.
For the 5th consecutive season, it played out in baffling fashion. It’s not just that LSU was once again favored in a season-opener that it lost.
Actually, yeah it is. Brian Kelly, who is widely considered one of the best coaches in the sport, has now lost all 3 of his season openers at LSU, 2 of which were with Jayden Daniels at quarterback.
Don’t get it twisted. That’s not some weird way of saying that Kelly’s job is in jeopardy. The guy will have $67.6 million left on his contract after this season. And in the new 12-team Playoff, Kelly left LSU’s latest season-opening loss with more of a path to the Playoff than any of those previous teams.
That’s the good news. The other good news? LSU’s biggest offseason area of need actually looked the part for the majority of the night. The maligned Tigers defense mostly did its part in its first game under Blake Baker. Sai’vion Jones was in Miller Moss’ ear all night with 2 of LSU’s 7 tackles for loss, Ashton Stamps provided a much-needed game-changer in the defensive backfield and while Harold Perkins was relatively quiet, he still made a pivotal early stop as a pass-rusher to force a punt on USC’s first series.
If there’s a silver lining to the latest season-opening loss, it’s that LSU checked a bunch of major defensive boxes against Lincoln Riley, AKA the guy who had nothing but top-8 scoring offenses in his 7 seasons as a head coach. Baker, so far, showed that he was worthy of that $2.5 million annual salary.
But in fitting LSU season-opener fashion, the Tigers defense’ last 2 plays of the night were shades of 2023. Before Marks scampered into the end zone, LSU corner Sage Ryan didn’t press USC receiver Kyron Hudson at the line, which gave Moss a throwing window on the sideline that was big enough to move the chains. More importantly, it moved USC into field goal range because Jardin Gilbert was called for targeting on the hit. Gilbert’s replacement, Jordan Allen, then took the wrong running lane on Marks’ game-winning score.
Typical LSU. At least in season openers.
Last year in the season opener, the pivotal play was Malik Nabers atypically slipping on a route that led to an FSU interception at the start of the 4th quarter. A 1-score game turned into an FSU blowout. In 2022, LSU forgot to block on a blocked extra point that would’ve tied the game at the end of regulation. I suppose 2021 wasn’t so much bizarre as it was embarrassing that LSU went all the way to UCLA to get punched in the mouth with a 223-48 rushing disadvantage.
And 2020, well, you remember that. Or if you don’t, you don’t need me to remind you about Bo Pelini’s man coverage decision that set the wheels in motion for KJ Costello to set the SEC single-game passing record in the late Mike Leach’s Mississippi State debut.
Some of those losses felt flukey. Sunday night didn’t feel flukey. Maybe that’s even harder to stomach.
After all, Garrett Nussmeier looked excellent in his first game of 2024 as LSU’s QB1. The first-time starter had an effort that was reminiscent of his ReliaQuest Bowl comeback win against Wisconsin.
This time, however, he wasn’t the quarterback who pulled off the comeback. He was instead the one who threw 2 incomplete passes after the 2-minute warning. LSU was still able to make a game-tying field goal, but it left too much time on the clock for USC’s final drive. With just 1 timeout left, the Trojans could’ve been looking at less than a minute to drive 60 yards into field goal range. Instead, they got the ball back with 1:47 to play and didn’t have any issues getting into scoring range.
Sure, Nussmeier completing those passes and potentially getting LSU a go-ahead score was the goal. But in a game of inches like that, it’s hard not to look at Kelly’s clock management down the stretch.
You could point to other things that proved costly. LSU operating out of shotgun and coming up short on a 3rd-and-1 run wasn’t a crowd-pleaser, and why Kyren Lacy failed to get a single second-half touch after he had 7 catches for 94 yards and a score in the first half was puzzling. It’s also worth noting that USC’s overhauled defense made the necessary adjustments and held LSU to 6 rushing attempts for 3 yards in the 4th quarter.
Whatever the culprit was for LSU, it felt like a continuation of those crunch-time issues.
LSU’s Brian Kelly on lack of killer instinct against USC, and others.
“It’s clear that when we get up in a game, we do not know how to handle ourselves..We had an opportunity to put this team away, we get complacent, make more mistakes when we’re ahead”
— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) September 2, 2024
Brian Kelly was HEATED after tonight’s loss pic.twitter.com/lw3bK85YzB
— The Bengal Tiger (@BengalTigerOn3) September 2, 2024
The irony is that as a result of that lack of a killer instinct with a lead, LSU will start in a hole for the 5th consecutive year. It’s not a particularly deep one because the positives were there (Nussmeier, Blake Baker’s defense and even a revived John Emery were all welcome sights), but it’s painfully familiar. The 2022 squad climbed back after falling into a far more embarrassing Week 1 hole. That squad went on to beat Alabama and made it all the way to Atlanta as the SEC West champs. SEC divisions are gone, but still exists the uphill climb that awaits LSU in conference play.
Time will tell if this LSU team can bounce back. A favorable September slate won’t really answer the big-picture questions that still face Kelly’s program in Year 3.
Kelly and LSU will get a chance to move on. Alternatively, being on the wrong end of 1-score games could define the 2024 season. We’ll see what’s in store.
All we know is that halfway through the 2020s, season-opening disappointment is a guarantee.
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Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
