Welcome to the big time, Texas.
Oh, wait a minute. The Longhorns are coming off a year in which they won the Big 12 Championship for the first time in 14 years en route to the Playoff. Of course, that also included a Week 2 win at Alabama wherein Steve Sarkisian handed Nick Saban his most lopsided home loss in 17 years at Alabama.
Texas, that’s my bad. Let me correct myself.
Welcome back to the big time, Texas.
On Saturday, the Longhorns will face Michigan in Ann Arbor. College GameDay will be in the house to see the new-look Wolverines, who still haven’t lost a game since the 2022 semifinal against TCU. Texas hasn’t lost a game since last year’s semifinal against Washington.
Something’s gotta give? Let’s not say that. That’s overdone in a matchup of top-10 teams.
Besides, it’s the 12-team Playoff era. Losses don’t matter anymore, according to some. Everyone can lose all the time and still have a chance to win a title, according to some.
To those some, watch Saturday in Ann Arbor and tell me that the game doesn’t mean anything. It does. It could be the difference in one of these teams getting into the Playoff. It could be the difference in one of those teams being “back” or not back.
So, Texas. Welcome back to the big time.
Here are some final thoughts on Saturday’s matchup:
1. Sherrone Moore is still coaching without a signed contract?!?
If you missed this reporting from USA Today, the first-year Michigan coach is still without a signed contract. The 5-year, $30 million deal to replace Jim Harbaugh was agreed upon, but has not been fully executed yet. That’s bizarre, to say the least. Here’s the USA Today explanation on why that deal is in limbo:
The 38-year-old Moore is still working under a three-page document he signed in January known as a memorandum of understanding, or MOU. The document outlines some of the basic parameters of Moore’s future deal, including salary figures and bonus provisions. But it lacks some of the specifics and legalese that often serve as the backbone of a coaching contract − such as the circumstances in which Moore, who is facing potential punishment from the NCAA as part of its investigation into an alleged sign stealing operation, could be fired for cause.
That seems … messy. Michigan showed last year that it could block out the noise of the Connor Stalions scandal and Jim Harbaugh’s suspension. Moore was obviously a big part of that. But the question now is whether this Michigan team, which isn’t loaded with experience like last year’s group, is going to be impacted by Moore’s pending status. Sleepwalking against Fresno State didn’t confirm or deny that.
It’s not that Michigan is the first program to endure something like this. Florida State never had a signed contract with Willie Taggart, and the Tampa Bay Times reported that made things messy after his firing in Year 2. That wasn’t known during his tenure.
We knew that Florida and Dan Mullen had an unsettled (but signed) contract situation. As we saw, he looked like a coach who hanging in the balance with his contract (that was Mullen in 2020). It was tense. Maybe that makes things tense for Michigan in 2024 until that gets done, or perhaps a team that just won a title isn’t concerned about something like that.
Either way, this isn’t the type of thing that defending champs are typically working against the following season.
2. Michigan’s QB situation is fluid, to say the least
Davis Warren starting was a surprise for those of us who assumed that Moore’s ground-heavy approach would lend itself to the freakishly athletic Alex Orji getting the nod. But Warren got the opportunity in Week 1 against Fresno State and performed … not like someone who ran away with the starting job. Orji got 9 snaps in relief, but Moore vowed to expand his role.
So does that mean it’ll be a 2-quarterback system? It sounds like it. You can bet that Texas will be prepared for that.
Isn’t it a bit ironic, though? Last year, Texas’ defense went on the road to face a top-10 team with a new-look offense in Week 2. Texas confused Jalen Milroe, and his 2-turnover performance resulted in Alabama trying out other quarterbacks the following week against USF. We know how that turned out.
Can Texas have a similar defensive effort? Texas DC Pete Kwiatkowski doesn’t have 202 stars Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat at his disposal up front, but that elite secondary should still be a factor. That’s the biggest mismatch in this game. It would make that much more sense if Michigan tried to stick to the ground game, though last week, College Football ’25 cover man Donovan Edwards was limited to 27 rushing yards on 11 carries against Fresno State. That might not be a strength yet.
It feels like Michigan will either find its offensive identity or watch its offensive weaknesses get exposed against Texas.
3. Steve Sarkisian said this is his deepest WR room. He’d better be right.
What do you say when you lose a duo like Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell? You praise your depth. Naturally. Sarkisian did that at SEC Media Days, saying that this was the deepest group of receivers that he’s had.
There’s never been a better time to find out if he’s right.
Why? All-American Will Johnson will be lined up on the outside, likely on either Matthew Golden or Isaiah Bond. If this is a group with great depth, Quinn Ewers won’t have to throw Johnson’s way, and he can instead turn to some of his other options. Ryan Wingo and Johntay Cook both stepped up in the opener and figure to have significant roles in this one.
Running back Jaydon Blue will also be important in the passing game, both in pass protection and catching balls out of the backfield. Sarkisian will occasionally line up Blue in the slot because of how effective he is as a route-runner. I’d expect a healthy dose of that in this one.
If the depth in the new-look receiver room is a strength, it’ll be evident by day’s end. Alternatively, if Ewers looks like he doesn’t have several reliable options like he did last year, it’ll be tough sledding in a hostile atmosphere.
4. The strength-on-strength matchup is Texas’ O-line vs. Michigan’s D-line
Both teams have a bona fide first-round prospect up front. Michigan DL Mason Graham and Kelvin Banks Jr. will both likely hear their names called in the first round of the NFL Draft. They’re the headliners, and with good reason.
But look beyond them. Texas has 4 returning starters on its o-line while Michigan also returned part-time starter Kenneth Grant, who figures to have a say in whether the Longhorns can establish the run. It’s well-documented that Texas lost not 2 scholarship running backs in fall camp, including the promising CJ Baxter. The aforementioned Blue and true freshman Jerrick Gibson both got double-digit carries in the opener. One would think they’ll be tasked with picking up some tough yards.
Then again, it wouldn’t be surprising if Sarkisian opted to have a more pass-heavy approach. Testing the Michigan communication on the back end could make more sense, especially with someone as experienced as Ewers. Putting the game in his hands instead of a relatively unproven running back room — albeit one with an experienced offensive line — might be the move to not play into Michigan’s defensive strength.
5. My unpopular take for this game: The loser of this game won’t compete for a national title
Wait, wait, wait. What did I just say? Isn’t this the 12-team Playoff? Like, aren’t regular-season losses basically the equivalent of a garbage time touchdown?
Let me explain. The loser of this game absolutely could still make the Playoff. That, I know. But the loser of this game will, to me, show that it won’t be among the teams that will make a deep Playoff run. Why? Because if Michigan loses, it’ll feel like a reality check that this team is significantly different than last year’s and Texas will expose some of that year-to-year turnover. If Michigan can’t win at home, does making a deep Playoff run against other Texas-level teams at neutral sites feel likely? It doesn’t.
Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 National Championship? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Alternatively, if Texas loses, that’s a bad sign for what awaits, even with a shockingly favorable Year 1 SEC slate. If the Longhorns can’t show off their experience in this matchup, to me, that suggests they aren’t on that level. They’re a touchdown favorite for a reason. It’s because teams that earn 4-team Playoff berths rarely return with 67% of last year’s production back. Michigan should know because it was No. 4 in America in percentage of returning production entering last season, and we saw how that worked out.
I don’t want to call it a “national championship elimination game” because that discounts the possibilities of the 12-team Playoff, but mentally, I’m ruling out the loser as a true title contender.
And a prediction … Texas 27, Michigan 17
If you don’t believe in Texas, maybe you will after Saturday.
Those exact words described the Longhorns before going into Alabama last year. It was a coming-of-age performance for Sarkisian and Texas. Earlier jokes aside, we should all acknowledge that Texas’ 2023 season was the foundational year that had escaped the program for more than a decade. Texas finally had a quarterback who could step up in big-time moments.
Ewers has shown that he can be trusted to make big-time throws with the season on the line. The season won’t be on the line in the first weekend of September, but in an electric atmosphere, Ewers once again looks ready to roll. He attacks the Michigan secondary and shows that Sarkisian’s declaration about Texas’ receiver depth wasn’t ambitious.
Of equal significance, Texas dominates Michigan’s new-look offense. Moore is forced to bring in Orji to provide some juice, but a 1-dimensional attack struggles to string first downs together. Michigan’s offense is mostly stuck in the mud outside of a couple splash plays.
Sarkisian has had 8 months to study Michigan and understand the task that awaits in The Big House. Something tells me that just like last year in Tuscaloosa, that’ll be evident by day’s end.
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Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
