Oklahoma Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Sooners in 2025

I want to be kind to disasters.

When you hear the word “disaster,” the word “natural” usually precedes it. It’s extreme. It’s chaotic. It impacts many things, and not in a positive way. Disasters are reserved for things that cause destruction and make us appreciate what normal times look like.

But yeah, Oklahoma‘s 2024 offense was a disaster.

In Year 1 in the SEC, the Sooners set offense back decades. Jackson Arnold was benched before halftime of his first SEC start, the top 5 receivers were out by the end of September, offensive coordinator Seth Littrell didn’t make it to November, OU used 8 different offensive line combinations and ultimately, scoring 16.4 points per game against Power Conference competition was indeed a disaster.

That’s how you go 6-7 at a place with just 1 losing season in the 21st century. It was a brutal combination of disastrous events for an Oklahoma offense that entered its first season in the SEC with promise. It was a season so bad that it made many question if Brent Venables would ever figure out that side of the ball, or if this was the life that OU signed up for when it went from the offensive-minded Lincoln Riley to the defensive-minded Venables.

Fortunately for Venables, the bar for improvement is low. Cleaning up the disaster would fend off questions about his future in Norman. Anything less than that and a Year 5 might not be in store with a new boss set to step in after Joe Castiglianone’s retirement.

So what awaits Oklahoma in Year 2 in the SEC? Let’s look into the Crystal Ball.

For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.

So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Auburn
• Florida
• Georgia
• Kentucky
• LSU
• Mississippi State
• Mizzou

Let’s continue with Oklahoma:

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John Mateer doesn’t have to be the next great Oklahoma QB, but he does have to avoid something important

I know that plenty of people have compared the lightly recruited Mateer to Baker Mayfield, which makes sense when you consider that both were Texas natives who had to take the long way to get the attention of a place like Oklahoma. But the question for the Washington State transfer isn’t whether he can step in and become Mayfield 2.0. Despite what my guy Chris Doering said on SEC Network this offseason, I won’t set the bar at winning a Heisman Trophy.

More important (and realistic) for Mateer is avoiding what Arnold couldn’t. That is, consecutive duds that make his coach lose faith.

The counterargument to that is Venables went all in with Mateer by hiring his Washington State offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Mateer then came to SEC Media Days even though he’s never taken a snap for Oklahoma. At this time last year, we discussed how all in Venables was with Arnold by bringing the redshirt freshman to SEC Media Days, and we know how that played out.

(I’m aware that it’s incredibly unlikely that Mateer has even a fraction of the bad injury luck that Arnold had with his pass catchers, and the offensive line that was a total liability has reason to believe it’ll be a steadier unit which will look better, especially if post-spring transfer Jaydn Ott returns to his 2023 form.)

Mateer’s task is avoiding the mistakes that plagued him at times in his first season as an FBS starter. That is, always trying to make something happen downfield, taking too many sacks and not being willing to take the easy completion. Those are the types of things that don’t always jive well with a defensive-minded coach like Venables. The good news for Mateer is that if he can get through the Michigan game without imploding, the schedule sets up well for him to build up some trust. Then again, that’s exactly what was said about Arnold last year with that pre-Tennessee slate.

Can Mateer live up to the preseason hype? Or will he fail to turn around OU’s disastrous offense? That’ll determine the Sooners’ ceiling in 2025.

This defense is worthy of your attention

Teams like Oklahoma and Auburn reminded us that you can have one of the better defenses in the sport and still not be a winning team. In 2024, OU had the type of defense that Riley never could, yet it was often put in impossible spots because of the disastrous offense. This year, there’s hope that the Sooners will be every bit as good defensively, with perhaps more help from the OU offense.

Yes, Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman are gone. Virtually everyone else is back, though. That includes first-round prospect R Mason Thomas, who bypassed the NFL Draft to return for another season. It also includes the likes of Auburn game hero Kip Lewis, and decorated Florida State transfer Marvin Jones Jr. will provide another pass-rushing presence for an OU defense that should get plenty of coverage sacks. Eli Bowen is the best SEC defensive player that people aren’t talking about after he was a revelation — especially against Alabama — as a true freshman.

This group has dudes at every level. It also has Venables, who is still one of the top defensive minds in the sport. That’s going to be the backbone of this team.

The question, of course, is how much heavy lifting will that group have to do in 2025?

Oklahoma Over/Under Win Total

Odds (via BetMGM):

• Over 7.5 wins: +110
• Under 7.5 wins: -135

Game-by-game predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Sooners:

Week 1: vs. Illinois State (W)

Don’t let the name fool you. Normal, Illinois, is a fun college town. Unfortunately for Illinois State, that’ll mean nothing against an Oklahoma defense that’ll make it glad that it faces FCS competition on a weekly basis.

Week 2: vs. Michigan (W)

Ah, herein lies a key litmus test for the Oklahoma offense. Does it look the part against the Wolverines in Sherrone Moore’s return to his alma mater? Not necessarily. But does it do enough to complement a dominant defensive showing by the OU defense? It does. In Bryce Underwood’s first career road start, the Sooners turn the decorated true freshman into an ineffective passer who can’t move the chains with his arm. A whopping 7 sacks fuels Oklahoma to a 21-10 victory.

Week 3: at Temple (W)

This is up there for one of the weirdest games of the entire 2025 slate. Traveling to Temple makes about as much sense as Mizzou traveling to UMass last year. At least OU will play in an NFL stadium. The visiting Sooners will look much more like the defending Super Bowl champs than Temple, and Deion Burks will have his first breakout game of the 2025 season after he was part of the injury-riddled receiver room in 2024.

Week 4: vs. Auburn (W)

Ah, get your popcorn ready for the Arnold-Oklahoma reunion. It’s not quite as deep as the Josh Heupel reunion game from a year ago, but just like OU’s 2024 SEC debut, this one isn’t lacking drama. Fortunately for the Sooners, there’s a stark difference between this year’s SEC opener and last year’s SEC opener. It plays well enough to avoid benching QB1 before halftime. This isn’t a vintage showing by Mateer, but early good vibes from Arnold’s start at Auburn go up in smoke when Thomas and the OU pass rush have his number. They force him into some untimely turnovers to a fuel an emotional 27-17 victory to start SEC play.

Week 5: Bye

The Sooners take a bit of an odd bye week here ahead of their final nonconference game.

Week 6: vs. Kent State (W)

Kent State went 1-23 the last 2 years and fired its head coach in April. That’s right. In April. Michael Hawkins Jr. gets plenty of reps in an easy Texas tuneup.

Week 7: vs. Texas in Dallas (L)

A top-10 showdown in the Red River Rivalry? Please and thank you. For the first time since 2008, both teams are in the top 10 for this matchup. But there’s a sense that OU has been playing with fire a bit too much offensively amid a 5-0 start. That plays out when Texas’s defense stymies Mateer in his return to the Lone Star State. Much like when Mateer left his only Red River Rivalry game early for his high school homecoming, this 4th quarter isn’t worth viewing, either. That’s the byproduct of multiple Mateer turnovers in the first half, including a pick-6 from Malik Muhammad. Kobe Black puts the game away in the 3rd quarter with Mateer’s 3rd turnover of the day and Texas rolls 38-14.

Week 8: at South Carolina (L)

This is when reality sets in that Oklahoma’s schedule is a gauntlet that’s perhaps unlike any in the sport. Against a South Carolina team that demolished the Oklahoma offensive line in Norman last year, a new-look Gamecock front-7 shines again. The Gamecocks sprint out to an early lead that puts too much pressure on Mateer to make plays in his first SEC road game. In a battle of decorated preseason quarterbacks, neither plays a clean game, but Sellers makes enough plays to fuel the Gamecocks to a pivotal win that keeps Playoff hopes alive.

Week 9: vs. Ole Miss (W)

Want a wild stat about Lane Kiffin? His last win against a ranked Power Conference team in a true road game was all the way back in 2011 when he led USC to a victory against No. 4 Oregon. Against an OU squad that’s still holding onto that top-25 ranking, Kiffin’s squad struggles on the road. Venables puts together an exceptional game plan that confuses Austin Simmons. He throws 2 interceptions into the arms of Lewis, and OU’s offense finally gets some mojo back in the form of Mateer’s legs. He showcases his dual-threat abilities en route to Venables’ biggest win of the 2025 campaign.

Week 10: at Tennessee (L)

The good news for Oklahoma is that bowl eligibility is out of the way and it still has Playoff hopes heading into the Heupel Bowl, Part II. The bad news is that Oklahoma is tasked with winning in a place where Heupel only has 1 loss in the last 3 seasons, and it was to 13-1 Georgia in 2023. The Tennessee defensive line delivers another impressive showing, while OU’s offense again struggles to find any run game outside of Mateer. OU’s defense runs out of gas and Peyton Lewis delivers a pair of long touchdowns in the second half to give Heupel another win against his alma mater.

Week 11: Bye

The Sooners get their second off week to prepare for a tough road trip to Tuscaloosa.

Week 12: at Alabama (L)

Wait, didn’t Oklahoma run all over Alabama last year with a much worse offense? Why can’t Mateer do the same? Well, this time around, Alabama is a more experienced defense that doesn’t lose its captain, Deontae Lawson, to a season-ending injury mid-game like last year in Norman. This matchup tests Venables’ patience with Mateer, who had an up-and-down first 2 months on the job. But his ability to extend plays doesn’t lead to him extending drives in Tuscaloosa. Instead, it leads to turnovers. Frustration builds as any sort of outside path to the Playoff is wiped off the table.

Week 13: vs. Mizzou (W)

Finally, Oklahoma’s defense gets to be the driving force. Against a Mizzou offense that turns out to be a bit too 1-dimensional at times, Thomas and Co. tee off. That group shows up with bad intentions in the first home game in nearly a month. Both Bowen brothers intercept Beau Pribula while Mateer has a bounce-back game with the heavily targeted Burks. A turnover-free Oklahoma offense breaks out and cruises past a sneaky Mizzou squad.

Week 14: vs. LSU (L)

In a game that won’t impact LSU’s Playoff chances — I’ve got the Tigers already locking that up — some wonder how Brian Kelly‘s squad will come out. That’s a mixed bag. Offensively, Garrett Nussmeier doesn’t have a banner showing by any means against the OU defense. Jones gets to him twice and an early pick-7 to Robert Spears-Jennings has LSU on upset alert. But the biggest year-to-year difference for LSU is how it handles mobile quarterbacks. Against Mateer, that’s evident. He’s unable to find running lanes against Blake Baker’s unit. Oklahoma has a chance to win late, but a failed 4th-down attempt ends in a 21-17 victory that sends the Tigers to Atlanta.

2025 projection: 7-5 (3-5), 11th in SEC

After Oklahoma enters the Texas game unbeaten, will it stay in the Playoff hunt? Some key losses down the stretch make that answer a resounding “no.”

12-team Playoff berth? No

A top-10 ranking for the Red River Rivalry turns into a very 2010s Texas A&M-like close to the season. A collapse down the stretch is the byproduct of Mateer taking too many chances, along with a running game that lacks week-to-week consistency. Ott can only do so much behind an offensive line that’s improved, but not good enough to assert its will against some elite defensive units down the stretch.

The better question might be whether 7-5 is good enough for Venables to stick around. My guess is that it would be, and that a $35 million buyout wouldn’t be paid at a place that has never paid big-time head coaching buyouts. Of course, that was during Castiglione’s tenure. His successor might have other plans, depending on when he/she is hired.

The OU days of having a yearly conference contender feel like a distant memory. In another year, this would’ve been a 9-3 team with legitimate 12-team Playoff aspirations, but it’s a grueling schedule that’ll test the Sooners in borderline unfair ways. That’s the lasting takeaway from a group that showed more offensive promise, but still was considered a shell of its former self.

Questions remain in Norman as Venables’ seat gets even hotter heading into 2026.