Ole Miss Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Rebels in 2025
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The question was asked ad nauseam leading up to the 2024 season.
If not now, then when for Ole Miss?
When the program began the season with its best preseason ranking since the Richard Nixon administration, one assumed that the path to the Playoff was cleared. Shoot, if you had told any Ole Miss fan that all of these things would happen, they would’ve assumed either a home Playoff game or a first-round bye was in place:
- Jaxson Dart is 1st-team All-SEC
- Jaxson Dart is selected in the 1st round of the 2025 NFL Draft
- Ole Miss finishes with the No. 2 scoring defense
- Ole Miss has 5 defensive players drafted
- Ole Miss beats Georgia
All of those boxes were checked, and yet, what happened? Well, you know what happened. Three losses by a combined 13 points to a trio of non-Playoff teams left Lane Kiffin and Co. on the outside looking in. Dart was mostly great, but he struggled late in those losses. The set-it-and-forget-it rushing attack never found its identity. A team that had “Playoff” written all over it instead took its frustration out on Duke in the TaxSlayer Bowl.
Things have changed in Oxford. Kiffin’s team won’t have its most preseason buzz in half a century because of that aforementioned talent lost to the NFL Draft. His squad ranks last in the SEC in percentage of returning production, and after last year’s shortcomings with a loaded roster, there’s an external expectation that a transition year could await.
But is that a guarantee? One must look a little closer into the Crystal Ball to find out.
For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.
So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:
Let’s continue with Ole Miss:
Austin Simmons, cleared for takeoff
It was like when you’re in the movie theater for something that you’ve wanted to see for a long time, and then a trailer comes on that makes you instantly say to whoever you’re with, “oh, I’m seeing that when it comes out.”
That’s how I’d describe what Simmons did against Georgia last year. It was a trailer. It wasn’t a full movie, but darn it if it didn’t make every one of us anticipate its arrival. Simmons’ brilliant touchdown drive in relief of the injured Dart is responsible for the majority of his intrigue. So, too, is the fact that he’s a 19-year-old college graduate who reclassified by 2 years back in 2023.
Oh, and he admittedly spent years trying to avoid looking like Tua Tagovailoa … even though he’s failing in that regard.
Simmons doesn’t have to be the second coming of Tagovailoa in order for him to live up to last year’s trailer in the Georgia game. He does, however, have to play at an All-SEC level if Ole Miss is going to be in Playoff consideration. There’s reason to believe that’ll the case. The surroundings are favorable.
Not only does he have that built-in connection with underrated classmate Cayden Lee, who somehow was snubbed for preseason All-SEC honors after he became Dart’s go-to guy when Tre Harris went down, but Kiffin added Penn State receiver Harrison Wallace III and Oklahoma State receiver De’Zhaun Stribling. It was a bummer that Arkansas tight end transfer Luke Hasz went down with an ankle injury that could sideline him for the season, but there are still versatile weapons available for Simmons.
He’s in Year 3 in the system, so while the 2020 Matt Corral and 2022 Dart seasons were transition years, it’s also worth remembering that both of those signal-callers were in Year 1 with Kiffin. Simmons could be in a better spot, especially if Ole Miss can get back to the ground game identity that it had in the 4 previous years of the Kiffin era. That’s not a given.
What is a given? Simmons is going to sell a whole lot of tickets at the box office.
Pete Golding just got a raise to become the highest-paid SEC assistant, so show us the defensive floor
If you’re not impressed with Golding, ask yourself why that’s the case. Was it because Alabama‘s defenses stopped producing top-5 finishes under his watch? That’s really the only knock on Golding as a defensive coordinator. Tell me which one of these boxes he’s checked:
- A) Led top-10 scoring defenses at 3 different FBS programs in Playoff era
- B) Led No. 2 scoring defense in 2024
- C) Led top-20 scoring defense 7 times in last 8 seasons
- D) Is highest-paid assistant in SEC
- E) All the above
It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
Golding has made a name for himself as one of the most respected defensive minds in the sport, which is why Ole Miss undergoing a massive defensive regression might not be so imminent after all the talent that it lost. He has the benefit of returning preseason All-American Suntarine Perkins, who was tied for the team lead in both tackles for loss and sacks in 2024. He and Nebraska transfer Princewill Umanmielen (the younger brother of 2024 star Princely Umanmielen) are expected to form an elite duo rushing the passer.
The question facing Golding is in the new-look secondary. And by “new-look,” I mean it’s entirely transfers on the first-team. They’re banking on FBS-level experience to bridge the gap there instead of hoping a bunch of second-year guys can keep the defense afloat. That’s the difference between Ole Miss in 2025 compared to Ole Miss in 2020 when Kiffin arrived.
Of course, Golding is also a big part of that difference. We know that the defensive floor was low early in Kiffin’s tenure. Golding has changed that in a big way. He’ll earn that new contract if he can lead a top-30 unit in 2025.
Ole Miss Over/Under Win Total
Odds (via BetMGM)
- Over 8.5 wins: -115
- Under 8.5 wins: -105
Game-by-game predictions
Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Rebels:
Week 1: vs. Georgia State (W)
Hey, Georgia State is on a 1-game winning streak vs. the SEC. Don’t sleep on Dell McGee … but do sleep on Hue Jackson running an offense in Week 1 that’s good enough to stay on the field with Ole Miss.
Week 2: at Kentucky (W)
A revenge game awaits Ole Miss in Lexington. After last year’s debacle, can Ole Miss avoid a repeat to start SEC play? Yes. More offensive urgency is evident. Simmons comes out firing and Kentucky struggles with finding answers to slow down the first-year starter. It’s a masterclass schematic game from Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr., and big plays are had left and right. Ole Miss shakes off last year’s loss in a big way.
Week 3: vs. Arkansas (W)
The early-season theme is that respected defensive minds cannot find weaknesses in Simmons’ game. Maybe it’s the lefty thing, or maybe it’s just that he’s an exceptionally talented quarterback who doesn’t get confused pre-snap. Whatever the case, Ole Miss does an excellent job keeping him clean, and he picks apart the Arkansas secondary en route to another blowout victory.
Week 4: vs. Tulane (W)
Finally, Simmons runs into a defensive-minded coach who can get some answers. Just as Tulane coach Jon Sumrall did last year against DJ Lagway in the bowl game, he does things pre-snap that confuse Simmons. A pair of first-half interceptions sends Ole Miss into the locker room clinging to a 1-score lead. But a new-look Tulane offense is even more overwhelmed by Perkins and Umanmielen, which leads to a short field and a touchdown to give Ole Miss some breathing room. A 28-13 victory doesn’t come particularly easy.
Week 5: vs. LSU (W)
In what’s considered one of the best quarterback matchups of the young season, it’s the emerging Simmons who shows out. Instead of Garrett Nussmeier using a new-look Ole Miss defense to boost his Heisman Trophy case, he’s climbing uphill all game against Golding’s defense in Oxford. A hostile crowd rattles the veteran signal-caller, and LSU leans too heavily on the passing game in an attempt to test the transfer-heavy Ole Miss secondary. That plan backfires in the form of 3 turnovers. Yet again, Ole Miss and LSU take part in a wild game in which the home team finds away to close it out.
Week 6: Bye
A top-10 ranking into October awaits during the bye week.
Week 7: vs. Washington State (W)
If this were the Washington State team that we saw in 2024, I’d say look out. But that’s not the case. It’s a Washington State team that ranks No. 134 out of 136 teams in percentage of returning production with a new coaching staff. It counts as a “Power Conference” matchup because that’s what Washington State was at the time that it was scheduled. But no longer does it feel like that kind of a test, and Kiffin’s offense slices it up.
Week 8: at Georgia (L)
A 6-0 start turns into a bit of a reality check in Athens. A year removed from Simmons’ brilliant showing against the UGA defense, Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann are determined not to let the young quarterback have a repeat performance. On the other side of the ball, Golding’s new-look secondary has its worst game to date. Gunner Stockton leans heavily on UGA’s tight ends, who fuel a fast start in a game that never feels particularly close. Georgia rolls to a 31-17 victory to get a little revenge.
Week 9: at Oklahoma (L)
Lost in the shuffle of a relatively ho-hum Ole Miss win vs. Oklahoma last year was that Brent Venables did a tremendous job defending Kiffin’s offense. The Sooners couldn’t hold on to a halftime lead, but that did feel like Venables group had an answer at key moments. This time around, Venables and Co. have enough answers to hold on to a halftime lead. Kiffin, who hasn’t won a true road game against a ranked Power Conference team since 2011, doesn’t have the right game plan in Norman. Simmons throws 2 interceptions to Kip Lewis, while John Mateer uses his legs to fuel the Sooners’ biggest win of the season.
Week 10: vs. South Carolina (W)
In a “backs against the wall” game after consecutive losses, the best version of Ole Miss shows up. It’s not as dominant as it was last year in Columbia because LaNorris Sellers is a better player and he’s facing a defense with more holes, but Simmons’ poise shines through. Just as he did earlier in the season in the LSU matchup, it almost feels like a personal challenge for Simmons to show that he’s one of the nation’s best signal-callers. Lee is un-guardable with a 10-catch, 150-yard showing to fuel a 35-24 victory that keeps Ole Miss’s Playoff hopes alive.
Week 11: vs. The Citadel (W)
Do you know what I learned today? The Citadel hasn’t faced an SEC program since it traveled to Alabama in Nov. 2018. I feel like that’s always the team that gets mentioned during Cupcake Week, and yet, it’s ACC teams who have faced The Citadel in the 2020s. Anyway, that factoid was more interesting than this game will be.
Week 12: vs. Florida (W)
Talk about massive Playoff implications on the line. It’s an elimination game of sorts between a 6-3 Florida squad and an 8-2 Ole Miss squad. On top of that, it’s a major revenge game for Kiffin after last year’s Playoff dreams died in The Swamp. So what plays out in the rematch? Ole Miss avoids short-yardage disasters. The Achilles’ heel of Ole Miss in 2024 looks more like a strength this time around with Logan Diggs picking up key 3rd and 4th downs. That keeps Florida’s defense on the field too long, and ultimately, Simmons does the rest. Ole Miss is now just an Egg Bowl win away from its first Playoff berth.
Week 13: Bye
Two weeks to prepare before the Egg Bowl? What’s the worst that can happen?
Week 14: at Mississippi State (L)
The Magnolia State will combust into flames on Black Friday. In a hostile atmosphere against a team that’s got nothing to lose, Ole Miss loses everything in the Egg Bowl — the battle at the line of scrimmage, the game, the Playoff berth … all of it. In a stunning development, Mississippi State‘s backfield comes out with its hair on fire. The cowbells are rocking in ways that they haven’t in years, and instead of this being a dream scenario for Kiffin to lock in a Playoff berth, it’s his worst nightmare. Simmons throws a late interception to end an Ole Miss comeback attempt and Starkville erupts.
2025 projection: 9-3 (5-3), 5th in SEC
Did Ole Miss do enough to hold on to a Playoff spot or did the Egg Bowl loss serve as a fatal blow?
12-team Playoff berth? No
This is cruel. I have nothing against Ole Miss, but with a projection that diabolical, I can’t object to the argument that I clearly have some sort of vendetta against the program (even though I don’t).
If you thought Ole Miss’s 2024 finish was a tough look for Kiffin, what would it say about him if he couldn’t beat the SEC team that was searching for its first conference win in over 2 years? It wouldn’t be worst-case scenario, but it’d be as unsatisfying of a 9-3 season as he could have. Granted, handing LSU its only regular-season loss would be a nice flex, and surely one that Kiffin would argue for his team’s Playoff consideration at season’s end.
But the conversations would shift to Kiffin being a choker, and it would overshadow the fact that he turned Simmons into an All-SEC quarterback with tons of way-too-early Heisman buzz for 2026. It would overshadow the fact that he’s got the SEC’s highest-paid defensive coordinator doing great things on that side of the ball after retaining assistants was an issue early in Kiffin’s tenure. It would even overshadow the fact that Ole Miss would be a bowl victory away from its 4th season of double-digit wins in the last 5 years, which would be quite the feat at a place with 7 such seasons before Kiffin’s arrival.
Context is lost in plenty of college football discussions. Context would be lost if this is the roller-coaster season that awaits Ole Miss in 2025.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
