Ole Miss football: 5 areas where the Rebels will be better … and worse in 2023

Although they aren’t heading into this season with the same amount of hype as they did in the 2022 preseason after finishing with an 8-5 record, the Ole Miss Rebels are still looked at as a major contender across the college football landscape with the opener of the 2023 slate of games on the horizon.

Here’s a look at 5 areas where we can expect to see Lane Kiffin’s team get better, and 5 areas in which we may expect to see a decline:

5 areas the Rebels will be better

1. Passing attack

With expected improved quarterback play between either Jaxson Dart or Spencer Sanders, by the end of the season — depending on how things shake out with both signal-callers — there should be some bigger numbers through the air in what could be a high-flying offense that also leans into the immense talents of Heisman-worthy running back Quinshon Judkins. The Rebels finished the 2022 season ranked 59th in the nation in total passing offense with a combined 3,117 yards through the air.

2. Overall cornerback play

One of the biggest things to watch across the Rebels defense in 2023 will be a projected uptick in total number of interceptions, especially from the cornerbacks room. In 2022, the Rebels had 8 interceptions, only 2 of which came from the cornerbacks. New cornerbacks coach Keynodo Hudson should factor largely into the improvement.

3. Run defense

One of the most quotable moments of the 2022 season was when Lane Kiffin said the Rebels didn’t have a run defense within several miles of the Auburn football stadium in a contest that should have unfolded much differently. With the bar set quite low based on how the Rebels performed against the run last year, it’s hard to expect anything worse. A new defensive coordinator in the house will help here after having the 90th-ranked rushing defense in the nation in 2022, with Ole Miss also being among the worst in the SEC.

4. Quarterback play

The high expectations from the national media and fans alike for Jaxson Dart — a transfer quarterback with a world of potential despite being largely inexperienced and unproven upon his arrival to Oxford — ultimately proved unfair to the signal-caller, who quickly worked his way out of the Heisman Trophy conversation with some accuracy and decision-making blunders.

Dart progressed and built upon his raw potential as the season went on and he got more game reps, something that should only continue into 2023 if he is not overtaken by transfer quarterback Spencer Sanders, who also has the potential to take the reins and rise in the SEC. Regardless, the situation at the position will be an improvement from last year’s early ongoing battle between Dart and Luke Altmyer.

5. Overall record

There were several predictions of an 11-1 or 10-2 finish to the regular season for Ole Miss in 2022. Instead, the Rebels lost 5 games, going on an unsightly 4-game losing streak around the same time that Lane Kiffin was rumored to potentially be taking a job elsewhere. Despite the tough schedule in 2023, there’s a very real scenario in which Tulane and Georgia, or Georgia and 1 other stout SEC opponent could be the only losses Ole Miss suffers.

5 areas the Rebels will be worse

1. Fourth-down conversions

Lane Kiffin went for it 33 times over the final 7 games of the season in 2022. With what should be a much-improved defense under new coordinator Pete Golding, Kiffin should have more trust in his defense to the point that his offense is not putting it all out on the line so frequently with the potential for a turnover on downs.

2. Individual receiver stat lines

This isn’t because we should expect the Rebels to have any struggles through the air. If anything, they should see some improvement with the development from the quarterback position, regardless of who the starting signal-caller is by season’s end. But this is the type of offense that should distribute the ball relatively evenly, in which no wideout comes close to hitting the 1,000-yard mark, though the departed Malik Heath came close to crossing the threshold in 2022.

3. Field goals

With more success in the passing game should come more touchdowns for the Rebels with improved efficiency in the red zone, making room for more extra-point attempts than field-goal attempts. The Rebels don’t have a huge bar to jump up from here after they finished 99th in the FBS in red-zone offense for the 2022 season.

4. Preseason hype

The Rebels were pinned early on in the 2020 season as a squad that could potentially find its way into the College Football Playoff with a chance to square off in the national championship game. That obviously fell way flat, as did the expectations for the quarterback to stay in the Heisman conversation. Ole Miss is a highly touted program moving into the 2023 schedule, but it doesn’t have the same widespread amp behind it that it did at this time last year.

5. Non-conference record

The Rebels ran the table against every non-SEC team last year, and while there are some cupcake teams on the 2023 schedule outside of the conference, 1 that absolutely cannot be overlooked is the matchup against the Tulane Green Wave. Willie Fritz’s team completed the most historic turnaround in college football history last season, going from 2-10 to 11-2. Tulane put the icing on the cake with a 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl. With Tulane having effectively reloaded at multiple positions, it is a contender once again and could hand Ole Miss 1 of its only losses of the season.

Crissy Froyd

Crissy covers SEC football news for Saturday Down South.