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Using ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) as a guide, 10th-ranked Ole Miss (3-0, 1-0) has an 87.0 percent chance to beat Memphis (2-1) on Saturday.
WALLACE MUST SPREAD BALL AROUND IN COMMANDING REBELS’ OFFENSE
Ole Miss had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s game against Memphis, and the Rebels know what is at stake in that showdown.
If the Rebels win, they’ll likely host College GameDay next week for the first time when Alabama comes to town. If they lose, they’ll not only drop their first game of the year, but their credibility in a loaded SEC West will take a huge hit.
Memphis has looked impressive during its 2-1 start, even in a seven-point loss to UCLA, but Ole Miss is the more talented team in this matchup, hence the 87 percent win probability. All Ole Miss must do is execute its gameplan and it should have no trouble improving to 4-0 in 2014.
Part of that gameplan will be to spread the ball around on offense. Thirteen different Ole Miss receivers have caught a pass through three games, and five of those receivers have at least 11 catches this season. Making the most of all of those weapons will test a middle-of-the-pack Memphis pass defense (No. 56 in the nation), which will favor the Ole Miss offense by the second half of the game.
Focusing on stopping one wideout, perhaps Rebels star sophomore Laquon Treadwell, is manageable for the Tigers’ defense. But stopping Treadwell, Cody Core (four touchdowns in three games), Vince Sanders (team-high 15 catches), Evan Engram and Quincy Adeboyejo for a full 60 minutes will not be as simple. The Rebels must force Memphis to respect all its weapons, because Ole Miss will hold an advantage in most one-on-one matchups.
It will be critical for Bo Wallace to protect the football, but if he plays from the pocket and goes through his progressions, he should have a favorable matchup somewhere on most plays. Routinely taking advantage of those matchups will make the Rebels’ 87 percent win probability seem low, and will make their assumed chances to upset Alabama next week rise significantly.
Ole Miss has weapons that Memphis does not. If Wallace and the offense use those weapons, they’ll be just fine on Saturday.
A former newspaper reporter who has roamed the southeastern United States for years covering football and eating way too many barbecue ribs, if there is such a thing.
