Paul Skenes debut: Updated betting odds, best picks for Skenes’ rookie season

Paul Skenes is heading for The Show, learning earlier this week he will make his MLB debut this weekend.

The Pittsburgh Pirates made the call ahead of a weekend series at home, penciling Skenes’ MLB debut into a Saturday game against the Chicago Cubs. The former LSU star has spent the early portion of the spring blowing away minor league hitters, and now he’ll get his first taste of the big leagues.

Heading into the game, Skenes is excited and said he is really just ready to be around veteran players at the next level:

“I’m excited. The biggest thing is I just want to see how it plays,” Skenes said about his debut. “I don’t think it’s going to be too different, but it’s going to be fun with some veterans who have been around the game and try to learn from them.”

Sean Casey, a former MLB veteran and an analyst for MLB Network, believes there is a legitimate chance Skenes hits the ground running with a performance similar to what fans have seen in the minors. He described Skenes’ stuff as “a different ballgame” for hitters.

“His stuff plays at the big-league level, and usually in the minors, you’re close to what you are going to be in the big leagues,” said Casey during an appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show.” “If you’re dominating the minors, you’ve got a good shot to dominating the big leagues.”

While the spotlight is undoubtedly on Skenes’ triple-digit velocity with his fastball, Casey dissected Skenes’ deep repertoire that includes an elite changeup and curveball. Now, he gets his shot to prove he belongs in the middle of Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Skenes’ debut against the Cubs is set for 4:05 pm ET Saturday evening, and fans can track all the latest odds and lines related to his appearance with SDS’s Louisiana sportsbook app. Here is a breakdown of some of Skenes’ best debut and rookie season odds:

Paul Skenes total strikeouts in debut — 6.5 (via FanDuel)

All eyes will be on Skenes’ strikeout numbers in his debut, especially for a pitching prospect who has received comparisons to Stephen Strasburg. In 7 starts at Triple-A, Skenes already has 45 strikeouts but just 27.1 innings pitched, so deciphering the pick here needs some nuance.

Will the Pirates cut Skenes loose in his debut, or will he be monitored in a cautious fashion to the way he has pitched in Triple-A? If he’s only allowed to go 3-4 innings, hitting the over will be tougher but not out of the question.

In regard to his opponent, the Cubs are somewhat susceptible to the strikeout, so that’s a good sign. Chicago has 338 strikeouts on the season, a mark that ranks 8th in all of MLB. The Cubs also have a whiff% of 26.8, a mark that is slightly above league average.

Fans can get in on Skenes’ hitting the over 6.5 number with -108 odds at FanDuel while the under is listed at -118.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5) vs. Chicago Cubs (via FanDuel)

The Pirates head into Skenes’ debut as a home underdog, and that’s not hard to see with the Cubs off to a 22-16 start this season. The Cubs also have a positive run differential while The Pirates are 20th in all of MLB at -0.6.

Justin Steele is also slated to get the start for Chicago tomorrow. While he only has 2 starts so far in 2024, Steele has been efficient in his career and posted a 3.06 ERA in 30 starts last season.

Paul Skenes regular-season strikeouts — 104.5 (via FanDuel)

Skenes’ call-up date is early enough that he could still come close to 20 or so starts in his rookie season, provided he remains healthy and his performance does not necessitate a demotion back to Triple-A.

Ultimately, his performance is not likely to hold him back. Even with the expected rough outings of a young career, it is hard to envision Skenes struggling in a way that keeps him out of the rotation the rest of the regular season.

And if Skenes comes anywhere close at all to starting 20 games, it is hard to predict anything shy of 100 strikeouts just on the prowess of his fastball alone. Add in the fact he has a complete repertoire, and Skenes has a good shot at going north of his strikeout total.

Fans can take the over 104.5 number at -120 odds via FanDuel while the under is listed at -106.

Paul Skenes Rookie of the Year (+1200 via ESPN Bet)

Fans looking on the ambitious side of things can take Skenes’ odds to be the Rookie of the Year. At this point, he is an expected longshot, and the biggest competition for the award is a group of pitchers.

Shota Imanaga, the 30-year-old Japan Star for Chicago, currently headlines ESPN Bet‘s odds at +200. Across his first 7 starts, Imanaga leads all qualified MLB pitchers with a 1.08 ERA and 5 wins to his credit to go with 43 strikeouts and just 5 walks.

The 2nd-place slot in the odds belongs to a fellow Japanese star, Yoshinobu Yamamoto who checks in at +375. Yamamoto is the 25-year-old star for the Los Angeles Dodgers who has bounced back from his rocky debut to post a 4-1 record, 2.79 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 42 innings pitched.

Those two players have made the jump from Japan with impressive early numbers. They have extra experience abroad on their side, something the average rookie cannot lean on in MLB.

Even with those players out of the picture, the next closest pitched in the Rookie of the Year odds is now a teammate of Skenes’. Jared Jones is an electric starter for the Pirates, recording 52 strikeouts across his first 7 starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 10.40 leads all of baseball, and Jones is tied for 5th in the NL for strikeouts.

Jones is listed at +600, and it will be hard for Skenes to catch a teammate in those odds after such a hot start to the season, much less chasing down the more experienced Japanese stars.

Paul Harvey

Paul Harvey lives in Atlanta and covers SEC football.