Peach Bowl predictions: Odds, picks for Oregon vs. Indiana in the CFP semifinals
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Oregon will battle Indiana on Friday night in the second College Football Playoff semifinal.
This is a rematch of a game that Indiana won earlier this season in Eugene. The Hoosiers prevailed 30-20 despite a pick-6 from Fernando Mendoza and haven’t looked back. Oregon also hasn’t lost since that disappointing day at Autzen Stadium.
Peach Bowl odds
Here’s a look at the latest college football betting lines for the Peach Bowl between Oregon and Indiana:
Here are some news and notes for both teams:
Indiana football news
- Indiana blasted Alabama in its most recent game, 38-3. It was a big statement for a Hoosiers program that had not played since the Big Ten Championship Game in early December.
- Of the 4 teams to receive a first-round bye in this year’s CFP, Indiana is the only one to advance to the semifinal round.
- Fernando Mendoza’s numbers against great defenses during the regular season were largely underwhelming. However, Mendoza had a huge game against the Tide. He threw for 192 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 16 passes.
- Indiana has a highly effective running back duo in Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. They dominated Alabama to the tune of 188 yards on 33 carries.
- Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt have been Mendoza’s go-to options in the red zone this season. Per CFB-Graphs, they’ve combined for 31 red-zone targets. All other Hoosiers have combined for 19.
- Defensively, this is an Indiana unit with very few question marks. The Hoosiers did lose top pass rusher Stephen Daley for the season after the Big Ten title game, but his absence didn’t seem to matter against Alabama. Ty Simpson and Austin Mack were still pressured on over 40% of drop-backs.
- IU has also been stout against the run this season. The Hoosiers are 21st nationally in rush defense success rate, per Game on Paper.
Oregon football news
- Oregon beat Texas Tech 23-0 to get to this game. However, the final score is a bit deceiving. Oregon’s first touchdown came on a short field following a turnover. Its second TD came with just 16 seconds remaining in regulation.
- Oregon forced 4 turnovers against the Red Raiders but was still unable to get much going offensively. The Ducks averaged just 3.9 yards per play.
- Dante Moore has had a good season overall and may be the best raw talent at quarterback left in the field. However, he’s struggled against pressure this season and has thrown 3 interceptions in 2 CFP games.
- For the season, Oregon’s rushing attack was respectable, with a success rate that ranks in the top-25 nationally, per Game on Paper. But the Ducks have really struggled down the stretch. They averaged 2.5 yards per carry against Washington in the regular-season finale and then 1.4 yards per rush against Texas Tech.
- Oregon’s defense was lights out against Texas Tech and was good against James Madison until that game became non-competitive in the second half. The Ducks are 17th nationally in EPA-per-play allowed, per Game on Paper.
- Oregon did give up more than its fair share of explosive passing plays this season. The Ducks are in the 34th percentile for that category entering Friday night’s contest.
Peach Bowl predictions
I think there’s some value on Omar Cooper Jr. to find the end zone at current market prices. As mentioned above, Cooper and Sarratt have dominated Indiana’s red-zone targets this year. Mendoza is very comfortable throwing the red zone, as we saw last week against Alabama when he had 3 touchdown passes on just 16 attempts overall. Cooper is priced at +150 to score a touchdown at Fanatics. At another sportsbook, his teammate, receiver Charlie Becker, has the same any time TD price despite having a fraction of the red-zone targets in 2025. Cooper has found the end zone in 10 of 14 games so far this season.
Pick: Omar Cooper Jr. anytime TD scorer (+150 at Fanatics)
I like Indiana to beat the number in this spot. I have some pretty significant concerns about Oregon’s offense and the Hoosiers have proven to be a machine at this point. I don’t think the Ducks are going to be able to move the ball on IU’s defense with any regularity. And even if they are, Moore has been a bit too turnover-prone in recent weeks. Offensively, Indiana is balanced enough to make things difficult on Oregon’s defense.
Pick: Indiana -3.5 (-112 on DraftKings)
Not in a legal betting state? You can still get in on the action with Kalshi, a legal predictions market! Here’s a look at the Kalshi market for this game:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
