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Texas? Or Oregon? That was the central question for AP voters this week after the Longhorns blasted Oklahoma in Dallas and Oregon won the biggest game in Autzen Stadium history. Texas was No. 1 a week ago, and the Longhorns remained No. 1 in the latest AP Top 25. Oregon, somewhat surprisingly, only received 6 first-place votes. Texas was No. 1 in 56 ballots.
On the ballot I submitted for Saturday Down South’s official top 25, I have Oregon sitting at No. 1. But I also didn’t have Texas No. 1 a week ago. Instead, Ohio State was my top team last week. At that point, Texas had beaten a handful of bad teams from outside power conferences, the worst team in the SEC, and a Michigan team that has no business being in the Top 25.
I just thought Ohio State was a better team, from what I had seen to that point in the year.
Then Oregon beat that team.
(It should also be noted that Oregon did so without its best defender.)
The latest data point for Texas is a 34-3 win over Oklahoma. The Longhorns trailed after the first quarter, scored 21 unanswered in the second quarter, and then cruised to another Red River Rout.
In a rivalry game against a blue blood, a 31-point win looks awesome on the surface. The reality is that Oklahoma looks awful. The Sooners rank 124th nationally in adjusted EPA per play (Game on Paper). The offense is next-level bad, so much so that Oklahoma fans are calling for coach Brent Venables to fire his offensive coordinator after 6 games. And they probably have a point.
I put quite a bit of stock in success rate as a predictive metric. Texas ranks sixth in net success rate against a strength of schedule that FPI ranks 82nd nationally.
Oregon ranks 27th in that same metric, to be clear. But the Ducks have played the 35th-strongest schedule and have what FPI believes is the best strength of record. If Oregon played the Texas schedule, I believe the Ducks would have done exactly what Texas did through 6 weeks. I don’t think Texas beats Ohio State.
You might disagree. That’s fine. This is all conjecture. But I have Oregon atop my poll this week. The Ducks have wins over 2 teams I have in my top 25. The Longhorns have none.
Here’s the rest of my Top 25 entering Week 8.
1. Oregon (6-0)
Last week: 3
The Ducks beat my No. 1 team from a week ago, and they currently have 2 wins over teams I believe would be in the College Football Playoff if it began today.
2. Texas (6-0)
Last week: 2
The Longhorns manhandled Oklahoma to get the Golden Hat back. The Sooners only had 237 yards of offense in the game and, at times, it felt worse than the 49-0 embarrassment OU suffered in the Cotton Bowl in 2022. I think this game said more about Oklahoma’s ineptitude than Texas’s dominance.
3. Ohio State (5-1)
Last week: 1
Ohio State lost by 1 on the road to my No. 3 team a week ago. There was no consideration given to dropping the Buckeyes below Penn State, as the AP poll did. If those 2 teams met on a neutral field tomorrow, I’d take Ohio State by a touchdown.
4. Penn State (6-0)
Last week: 4
The Nittany Lions are flirting with disaster. Their own miscues prevented a bigger margin against Illinois and then again against UCLA. Against USC on the road, Penn State had a healthy net success rate and still had to claw back for an overtime victory.
5. Georgia (5-1)
Last week: 5
Like Kirby Smart said after the game, Georgia handed Mississippi State multiple scores. A 41-31 win over arguably the worst team in the SEC won’t assuage any of the concerns in Athens. On one hand, Georgia has a dominant win over another top-10 team. On the other, Georgia has 3 league performances that have left a ton to be desired.
6. Clemson (5-1)
Last week: 6
Clemson buried Wake Forest for a fifth consecutive win by at least 2 scores.
7. Miami (6-0)
Last week: 7
Miami was on a bye week in Week 7.
8. LSU (5-1)
Last week: 15
Garrett Nussmeier is playing as well as any quarterback in the country right now. The LSU offensive line has built Fort Knox around him, and Nussmeier has fired dart after dart to lead the Tigers to 5 consecutive wins.
9. Iowa State (6-0)
Last week: 11
The Cyclones have won 4 straight games by at least 12 points, the latest coming in Morgantown West Virginia against a Mountaineers squad that was previously unbeaten in Big 12 play.
10. Alabama (5-1)
Last week: 10
Alabama escaped South Carolina. No other way to put it. The Crimson Tide went up 28-0 on Georgia and haven’t looked comfortable ever since. Jalen Milroe threw 2 interceptions, Alabama bungled an onside kick, and the Tide got outgained again. If not for 4 South Carolina turnovers, the Tide would have lost a second consecutive game.
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11. Tennessee (5-1)
Last week: 8
Tennessee has an outstanding running back. Tennessee has a ton of offensive problems around him.
12. Indiana (6-0)
Last week: 12
Indiana was on a bye in Week 7.
13. Notre Dame (5-1)
Last week: 13
The Fighting Irish blasted Stanford 49-7 to win their fourth in a row, but they lost a star in the process.
14. Texas A&M (5-1)
Last week: 16
Texas A&M was on a bye in Week 7.
15. Boise State (4-1)
Last week: 17
Ashton Jeanty ran for 217 yards and scored 2 touchdowns in a 28-7 win over Hawaii on the road. Boise didn’t blow up the scoreboard like it had in recent weeks, and Jeanty got his biggest workload of the season, but the Broncos continued their domination of the Mountain West.
16. BYU (6-0)
Last week: 23
I’m still a little skeptical of BYU, but the Cougars are making it harder each week to be. Arizona had a 7-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, and BYU outscored them 34-6 over the 40 minutes to blow the game open. BYU is still 29th in Game on Paper’s adjusted net EPA-per-play metric and 44th in net success rate, so the margins in some of these games seem a bit misleading. But Arizona State might be the only team left on the regular-season schedule that doesn’t stink, so it might not matter.
17. Kansas State (5-1)
Last week: 19
Kansas State won a trap game in Boulder, 31-28. The only loss on the résumé looks worse than it actually was.
18. Ole Miss (5-2)
Last week: 9
I really wanted to believe. I bought the Rebels, defended the loss to Kentucky, and then felt even better after the rout of South Carolina. But we might just have to acknowledge that Ole Miss is what it has been.
19. Arkansas (4-2)
Last week: 21
Arkansas was on a bye in Week 7.
20. Navy (5-0)
Last week: 23
Navy was on a bye in Week 7.
21. Nebraska (5-1)
Last week: 25
Nebraska was on a bye in Week 7.
22. Army (6-0)
Last week: unranked
Army beat the brakes off UAB. The degree to which the Black Knights dominated could partially be attributed to a UAB team that seems to have quit, but make no mistake, Army has dominated everyone it has faced this season. Army is winning by an average of 29 points a game.
23. Pitt (6-0)
Last week: unranked
I will happily do a mea culpa right here if they prove me wrong, but I believe the Panthers are the fakest team in the top 25 at the moment. I had them on upset alert in Week 7 and they beat Cal by 2 at home. Cal was without its best offensive playmaker, it was without its top pass-rusher, and the offensive line looked incapable of blocking a plastic bag fluttering in the air. Given what I’ve seen, I think Pitt has multiple losses by Nov. 24. But they’re unbeaten and they’re 23rd nationally in net success rate, so here they are.
24. Arizona State (5-1)
Last week: unranked
I like Kenny Dillingham quite a bit. He’s exactly the kind of high-energy coach that succeeds in this era. His Sun Devils have already cleared their preseason win total and find themselves in the thick of the Big 12 race. The last 3 weeks of the season will determine their fate, but ASU is a team deserving of recognition at this point in the season.
25. SMU (5-1)
Last week: unranked
I was banging the drum for SMU all throughout the offseason and the preseason. When they stumbled out of the gates, it looked a little foolish, but the Mustangs have rebounded nicely from a loss to BYU at home. They throttled Florida State and then won a road game at Louisville.
Dropped out
Utah (14), Oklahoma (18), USC (20), Illinois (24)
Right on the cut line
Missouri, Illinois, Texas Tech
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
