Will this be the year?
Kentucky is hoping that Saturday will be the first time since 1986 that it can beat Florida. The Wildcats have certainly come close in recent years. Each of the past two games came down to the final play. But the streak is 29.
The Wildcats enter the game coming off a tough loss to Southern Miss, in which they squandered a 25-point lead and gave up 34 consecutive points, falling 44-35.
To add insult to injury, it was fired Kentucky offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson calling the plays for the Golden Eagles.
The Gators topped UMass 24-7, but the underwhelming nature of the win got them bounced from the Associated Press Top 25. Scoring more field goals (3) than touchdowns (2) against a very weak UMass team is already leading to some concerns about the offense in Gainesville.
Despite Florida’s offensive issues, the Gators are 16.5-point favorites over Kentucky. Let’s break down the in-game matchups to see if that holds up:
When Florida has the ball
UF QB Luke Del Rio vs. UK pass defense: Last season, Kentucky put up decent passing defense numbers because many teams opted to run, with ease. And after watching tape of UK’s game with Southern Miss, Florida might decide to focus on the ground game as well.
This will only be Luke Del Rio’s second career start, and his first against an SEC defense. Against UMass, Del Rio was 29-of-44 for 256 yards, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. Florida’s line had a few protection breakdowns and that could mean trouble against UK.
Kentucky’s three picks against Southern Miss show that Del Rio could pay for any bad decision or throw. Florida coach Jim McElwain counted about six poor throws by Del Rio against UMass.
This will be Del Rio’s first real test, and while the Kentucky defense had its problems, the three picks show that the Wildcats are doing some things right against the pass.
Edge: Push
Gators running backs vs. UK run defense: Florida favored the pass against UMass, throwing 44 times compared to 29 rushes. That ratio likely will change Saturday.
Of those 29 rushes, 26 were logged by four running backs — and half went to Jordan Scarlett (13 carries, 70 yards). McElwain likes the idea of using multiple backs to keep everyone fresh for the fourth quarter. Scarlett is in line to start again and should get RB1 treatment throughout the game.
The Wildcats were gashed by Southern Miss, allowing 262 rushing yards. That should be music to Scarlett’s ears. The second-year back’s career high is 99 yards against Georgia; Saturday is shaping up to be the perfect opportunity to crack triple digits.
And considering UK’s struggles stopping the run, it could be a breakout opportunity for other Gators ball-carriers as well. Kentucky will see a mix of physicality, power and slipperiness from Florida’s stable of running backs.
EDGE: Florida
Florida receivers vs. UK defensive backs: Gators WR Antonio Callaway vs. Wildcats DB Chris Westry should be a fun speed vs. size matchup to watch. At 6-foot-4, Westry has a significant height advantage over Callaway (5-foot-11), a bona fide burner. Callaway had just one reception against Kentucky last year for 34 yards, but it was on a night the Gators only passed for 125 yards.
Westry, though, is looking to clean up on some miscues against Southern Miss. The big question will be if Florida’s unproven receiving corps can step up while the Wildcats key on Callaway.
Much like Del Rio vs. UK pass defense, there’s too many question marks to make a decisive call.
EDGE: Push
When Kentucky has the ball
UK QB Drew Barker vs. UF pass defense: Barker’s performance is almost a statistical opposite of Del Rio’s. The Kentucky signal-caller didn’t throw many passes (15-of-24), but when he did they often went for big plays (323 yards, 4 TD). Florida faced even fewer passes against UMass, as QB Ross Comis was 9-of-17 for 141 yards.
UMass picked on Gators DB Chris Williamson, who filled in for a suspended Teez Tabor and injured Duke Dawson. Tabor and Dawson will be back Saturday.
The Gators’ defensive line should consistently be able to get pressure. Factor in the hostile environment, and the Florida pass defense has the advantage at home.
EDGE: Florida
UK RB Stanley “Boom” Williams vs. UF run defense: Williams, third-team preseason All-SEC, got an impressive 5 yards per carry (16 carries, 80 yards) on Florida’s run defense a year ago. This year, the Gators are replacing key run-stopper Jonathan Bullard, now a member of the Chicago Bears.
It’s tough to judge Florida’s run defense based on the UMass game. Minutemen RB Marquis Young, an underrated back, was held to 59 yards on 19 carries. That’s a solid stat line for the orange and blue, but the UF defense had the obvious size and speed advantage.
If Williams is good for another 5 yards per carry, it could allow the Wildcats to control the clock and keep their defense rested, a solid strategy for any road team.
EDGE: Kentucky
UK receivers vs. UF defensive backs: While the Florida secondary is replacing first-round draft picks Vernon Hargreaves III and Keanu Neal, the Gators have the luxury of doing so with returning veterans. Tabor, a preseason All-SEC corner, will step into the Hargreaves role with Quincy Wilson moving into Tabor’s old spot. Redshirt junior Nick Washington, who appeared in 14 games last season, is tasked with taking over at free safety for Neal.
Since Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins doesn’t believe in assigning cornerbacks to specific receivers, it will be the whole unit’s responsibility to contain UK WR Garrett Johnson, the team’s leading wideout in 2015 who broke out with a 9-catch, 160-yard performance against Auburn.
He’s off to a hot start this season: 6 catches, 143 yards, 2 TDs in the opener.
UF’s defensive backs should have the advantage with their familiarity with each other and playing at home, but the new Florida secondary will certainly be tested.
EDGE: Florida
Special teams
Last season, Florida was one of the top teams in field position. The Gators had the third-highest punting average in the SEC, 44.8 yards, behind the leg of Johnny Townsend. In addition to making plays as a wide receiver, Callaway also boosted Florida’s punt return game. Townsend and Callaway are both back in 2016.
Kentucky is hoping that Grant McKinniss, one of the top punters of the 2016 class, can boost a punting game that struggled in 2015, as the Wildcats were last in the SEC in average yards per punt (39.6).
Florida has seemingly hit the jackpot with its special teams newcomer, K Eddy Pineiro. Playing in his first football game of record, the converted soccer player hit three field goals from 40-plus yards out and boomed his kickoffs.
EDGE: Florida
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
