Week 10 of the 2025 season has arrived.
As always, this piece will be focused on finding underdogs to cover the spread for the upcoming weekend. Last week, we went 2-3. Memphis and Ole Miss both won outright, but Illinois, Toledo and Syracuse all failed to beat the number.
5 predictions against the spread
Here are 5 underdog picks against the spread for Week 10:
Penn State +20.5 over Ohio State
I like Penn State at this number. The Nittany Lions have fallen well short of expectations this year, but they haven’t been blown out yet. This game was priced at Ohio State -4.5 for much of the offseason. James Franklin is gone and Drew Allar is hurt, but I tend to think this is too much of an overreaction. Penn State almost beat a pretty good Iowa team on the road a couple weeks ago in its first game without Franklin. I think this stays within 17 or so.
Pick: Penn State +20.5 (-105 on BetMGM)
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SMU +12.5 over Miami
I really think Miami is just sleep-walking at this point. The Hurricanes were tied with Stanford at the half last week. The week before that, they lost to Louisville. I also like the idea of buying low on SMU after it lost to Wake Forest at the buzzer last weekend. Miami opponents who are underdogs of 10 or more while coming off of a loss are 6-3-1 against the spread since the start of the 2022 season. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is a former Cristobal coordinator so I imagine he’ll have some tricks up his sleeve for this matchup, too.
Pick: SMU +12.5 (-110 on bet365)
Purdue +21.5 over Michigan
Purdue has been bad this season but I see little reason why the Boilermakers should be dogs of more than 3 touchdowns to Michigan. The Wolverines aren’t elite on either side of the ball and they don’t play at a fast pace. The total for this game is only 50. I think Purdue can score a couple touchdowns and keep this well within the number.
Pick: Purdue +21.5 (-110 on Fanatics)
Cincinnati +10.5 over Utah
I don’t see a huge gap between these teams. Cincinnati’s defense has struggled this season, but its offense is really good. Brendan Sorsby can hurt teams with his arm and his legs — the Bearcats are top-20 nationally in EPA-per-pass and EPA-per-rush, according to Game on Paper. I think many would be surprised to learn that Sorsby is 6th in the country in passer efficiency rating with a 20-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and that he’s also rushed for over 400 yards this season. Cincinnati gets good production from its running backs, too, and Utah is outside of the top-100 nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed. I think this stays within single digits.
Pick: Cincinnati +10.5 (-115 on BetMGM)
Stanford +14.5 over Pitt
Stanford is competent. We saw that for a full half vs. Miami last week. We saw it against Florida State the week before. The Cardinal have found something, at least on defense, to keep these games interesting the last couple weeks. Stanford closes with Notre Dame, so it really needs to win its next 3 games if it wants to go to a bowl game. That starts with a good performance against a Panthers team that will be traveling from across the country with a true freshman quarterback. Pitt closes the season with 3 ranked teams — Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami — after making this trek to the west coast. I think Stanford keeps this closer than expected.
Pick: Stanford +14.5 (-110 on Caesars)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
