It’s almost time for Week 5 of the college football season.
As was the case last week, we’ll use this story to pick 5 against-the-spread underdogs to cover the spread in Week 5. Four of the games picked below involve conference matchups. So far this season, FBS underdogs in conference games are 25-16-1 against the spread.
One more note before we begin. Earlier this week, I predicted 5 money line upsets from across college football in Week 5. As usual, this piece won’t include any of the teams in that piece — although I generally do like those teams against the spread as well.
Best underdog picks Week 5
Here are 5 underdog picks for this weekend in college football:
Washington +8.5 over Ohio State
Washington has been criminally underrated so far this season. The Huskies have a borderline-elite quarterback in Demond Williams who has been excellent to start the year. Williams is second nationally in EPA-per-drop back, according to Game on Paper. For Ohio State, Julian Sayin has been good this season but this will be the first road start of his career and it comes in Big Ten play against a Washington defense that’s top-40 in pass defense efficiency rating. I think the Buckeyes win this one, but Washington should find a way to cover 8.5 points.
Pick: Washington +8.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Middle Tennessee State +7.5 over Kennesaw State
This seems like way too many points to me. In fact, a few models have Middle Tennessee rated above Kennesaw. The Owls picked up a nice 7-point win over Arkansas State last weekend, but the Red Wolves were in a let-down spot as they were coming off of back-to-back games vs. power-conference opponents (Arkansas and Iowa State). Kennesaw is 127th in scheduled-adjusted net EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. By success rate, the Owls are outside the top-110 in FBS in passing success rate, rushing success rate and passing defense success rate. Middle has shown the ability to hit some explosive plays this season — I think it will do so again on Saturday and keep this game within a touchdown.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State +7.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Rice +14.5 over Navy
This seems like an exceptionally high spread considering this game has a total of around 45 points. These are 2 of the highest-run rate teams in the entire country, so don’t expect much pace here. Navy runs it 84% of the time and Rice runs it 78% of the time. Rice isn’t good by any means, but this is an Owls team that has 2 wins already this season over Charlotte and Louisiana. Given the tendencies for both of these offenses, Rice may only need to score 14 or so to beat the number. It doesn’t hurt that Navy has a rivalry game against Air Force coming next week, making this a lookahead spot for the Midshipmen.
Pick: Rice +14.5 (-115 on Fanatics)
Utah State +22.5 over Vanderbilt
I wrote about the unsustainability of Vanderbilt’s offense earlier this week. The Commodores and Diego Pavia have been running hot on third down — I think some regression could come as early as this weekend against the Aggies. Additionally, Utah State has already faced an SEC foe this season in Texas A&M. In that game, Utah State’s offense held its own with an 11% explosive play rate, per Game on Paper. The market has been racing to catch up to Vanderbilt — the Commodores have beaten the number by at least 21 points in all 3 FBS games so far this season. I’m betting this is the week where the market catches up. It also doesn’t hurt that Vanderbilt has Alabama on deck, making this an obvious look-ahead spot for the ‘Dores.
Pick: Utah State +22.5 (-108 on FanDuel)
Arizona +6.5 over Iowa State
I’ve been relatively low on Iowa State since the preseason and nothing I’ve seen this year has done much to change that despite its 4-0 start. The Cyclones have won 3-straight 1-score games over Kansas State, Iowa and Arkansas State. Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the biggest surprises of 2025 so far. The Wildcats are No. 4 nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. They trail only Oregon, USC and Florida State in that metric. Arizona’s defense has been elite this season and the Wildcats have 2 running backs who are capable of doing damage against an Iowa State defense that gave up 160 yards on the ground to Arkansas State last time out.
Pick: Arizona +6.5 (-105 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
