Week 7 of the college football season is here.
This slate is loaded with big games from the SEC all the way down to Conference USA. Let’s take a look at 5 candidates to beat the spread as an underdog this weekend.
5 underdog spread bets
Here are my 5 underdog picks for this week:
Mizzou +3.5 over Alabama
I think Alabama is the best team in the SEC, full stop. But the Crimson Tide are coming off of back-to-back emotional games against Georgia and Vanderbilt. They also play Tennessee next weekend in another potential top-25 matchup. I think this game is likely to be pretty close, especially considering Mizzou’s statistical profile. Mizzou has arguably the best running back in the country in Ahmad Hardy and Alabama has a pretty mediocre rushing defense.
Pick: Mizzou +3.5 (-115 on FanDuel)
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Oregon State +3 over Wake Forest
I was on Wake Forest last week as a money line underdog and the Demon Deacons came through with an outright win. I’m fading them this week, though, against an Oregon State team that seems really close to a breakthrough. The Beavers out-gained App State by about 1 yard per play last week and still lost. They fell to Houston in overtime the week before. Oregon State has 2.2 fewer wins than expected, according to ESPN’s postgame win expectancy formula (most in the country by a wide margin). Now they get Wake Forest travelling across the country, riding high after a big win in Week 6. I think Oregon State gets it done.
Pick: Oregon State +3 (-113 on Caesars)
Rice +12.5 over UTSA
I’m surprised to see Rice as a double-digit dog in this game. The Owls have been pretty competitive this season with the exception of their season-opening loss to Houston. Both of Rice’s last 2 games have been decided by 1 score. The Owls rank 80th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net rating metric — UTSA is 84th. The Road Runners only averaged 4.5 yards per play last week against a Temple defense that has been giving up explosive running plays at a high rate all year. I like Rice in this one.
Pick: Rice +12.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
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Louisiana +18.5 over James Madison
This is a bit of a hold-your-nose play. The Dukes are arguably the best G5 team this year and Louisiana is unlikely to make a bowl. With that being said, I think this is too many points. Louisiana is coming off of a bye week so it has had some time to prepare for JMU’s offense. The Ragin Cajuns also have a legitimately good rushing attack (they’re 11th in EPA-per-rush nationally). Louisiana’s pass defense has also held up OK this year. The run defense has not, but JMU has 3 running backs who are questionable due to injury for this game. With a huge game vs. Old Dominion looming next week, JMU might get caught looking ahead here.
Pick: Louisiana +18.5 (-110 on Fanatics)
Stanford +19.5 over SMU
Stanford seems to have figured something out with its passing game. Ben Gulbranson has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt in each of his last 2 games against San Jose State, Virginia and Boston College. None of those defenses are particularly impressive, but it speaks to the rising competence level with Stanford’s offense which is important to note when you’ve got a point spread of nearly 3 touchdowns. SMU isn’t particularly strong in any one area and the Mustangs have Clemson on the road next week. I think it’s a good time to jump on the Stanford bandwagon.
Pick: Stanford +19.5 (-112 on Underdog Sportsbook)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
