We’ve reached Week 11 of the 2025 college football season.
We’re back for another week of upset predictions across college football. Upsets are down a little bit this season. Money line underdogs of +100 or higher have won just 26.5% of their games through Week 10. That’s down from 28.3% over the Weeks 1 through 10 in 2024.
Still, we press on in search of 5 winners this week.
Upset picks Week 11
Here are 5 upset predictions for this week’s slate:
Auburn over Vanderbilt
With Vanderbilt still licking its wounds from the Texas loss, the Commodores now host an Auburn team that will be playing for an interim head coach on Saturday. Gulp. This Auburn roster is good. The defense is really good and I think the offense can play at a much higher level than we saw against Kentucky this past weekend.
Pick: Auburn +210 over Vanderbilt (via BetMGM)
Wake Forest over Virginia
I’ve been on Wake a lot this season. It’s generally been a good idea, although it certainly wasn’t last week when the Demon Deacons got curb-stomped by Florida State. But I’m back on the Jake Dickert train this week as Wake travels to face the nation’s most overrated team in Virginia. The Cavaliers are ranked No. 12 in the AP Poll this week but most advanced metrics wouldn’t put Virginia anywhere near the top 25. I’ll give Wake another shot since I like the spot for fading the Cavaliers and because the Demon Deacons have already pulled off a couple big upsets this season (including a win over SMU just 2 weeks ago).Â
Pick: Wake Forest +210 over Virginia (via bet365)
Tulane over Memphis
Readers may remember a few weeks ago when I took Memphis to beat South Florida a week after the Tigers had lost in stunning fashion to UAB. That move paid off. We have a similar pattern available to us this week and Memphis is involved once again. Tulane is a big road underdog on Friday night against the Tigers, one week after they got absolutely embarrassed on the road at UTSA. I think Jon Sumrall and his team will have Tulane in a much better position this week for what is a massive game in the AAC.
Pick: Tulane +195 over Memphis (via BetMGM)
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Stanford over North Carolina
North Carolina has been legitimately improved on defense for several weeks now. The Tar Heels finally got over the hump last week with a big win over Syracuse. But the Orange started a freshman walk-on lacrosse player at quarterback in that game and UNC was still losing at halftime. I’m happy to sell high on Carolina as a sneaky-competent Stanford team rolls into Chapel Hill. I think this will be a very low-scoring game and I think the Cardinal are live to win outright.
Pick: Stanford +240 over North Carolina (via Fanatics)
Nebraska over UCLA
I’m a little surprised to see Nebraska is an underdog against UCLA even with Dylan Raiola being out for the season. I think TJ Lateef can move the ball on the Bruins. I also think Matt Rhule will be eager to rally his team around a backup quarterback on the road. Nebraska’s primary weakness is rushing defense, but UCLA’s running backs have been underwhelming this season. Nico Iamaleava is by far UCLA’s leading rusher entering Week 11. The Bruins are coming off of a bye, but I just think this Nebraska team is tougher and better in the trenches than UCLA is.
Pick: Nebraska +105 over UCLA (via bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
