Welcome back to another week of upset predictions.
Last week, we went 1-4 but hit one of the biggest plays of the season with Tulsa winning outright as a +380 underdog over Oklahoma State. That’s a nice win, but we’ll aim for profitability this week.
College football upsets Week 5
Below you’ll find 5 upset predictions for Week 5 of the college football season. As always, we’ll also point you to the best price in each market according to the latest college football odds.
Auburn over Texas A&M
This is another tough road game for Auburn, but I like the Tigers’ chances here at current market price. Most statistical models say these teams are pretty close to even — I’m not sure I understand the 6.5-point spread even with this game being played in College Station. I think Auburn’s defensive metrics are a bit deflated because it’s already played road games against 2 of the best quarterbacks in the country in Sawyer Robertson and John Mateer. The Tigers also have statistically the best rushing defense in the country through 4 weeks. They rank No. 2 in rushing EPA-per-rush allowed and No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper.
On the other side of the ball, Auburn’s rushing offense is elite thanks to Jackson Arnold and Jeremiah Cobb. Texas A&M has struggled to stop the run this season. It ranks 96th in the nation in defensive EPA per rush allowed despite only playing 1 power team (Notre Dame) so far this season. I think Auburn will be able to establish the run and that should go a long way toward lowering the effects of Texas A&M’s home-field advantage at Kyle Field. More broadly speaking, this feels like a buy-low opportunity on Auburn after its heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma and a chance to sell high on Texas A&M after its last-second win over Notre Dame.
Pick: Auburn over Texas A&M | +200 on DraftKings
Alabama over Georgia
I like Alabama this week. Despite a Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama’s advanced metrics are much better than Georgia’s in a lot of key areas. The Tide rank 8th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric while the Bulldogs are all the way down at No. 31. Despite an undefeated record and a sterling reputation, Georgia has displayed one huge weakness through 3 games: pass defense.
The Bulldogs, having played Marshall, Austin Peay and Tennessee, rank 101st in pass defense success rate, per Game on Paper. They’re now facing an Alabama passing attack led by Ty Simpson that has been extremely efficient this year. This will be Simpson’s biggest test since the opener against Florida State, but I think he’s earned some optimism heading into this matchup with the Bulldogs. I also like that Alabama is expected to get back 2 key players — running back Jam Miller and defensive lineman Tim Keenan — for this game.
Pick: Alabama over Georgia | +130 on Caesars
UCLA over Northwestern
Credit to my colleague Derek Peterson for bringing this game to my attention. UCLA has been putrid this season, but I’m not sure this Northwestern team should be favored by almost a touchdown against anyone. The Wildcats have looked lifeless against both FBS opponents they’ve faced. Northwestern didn’t score vs. Oregon until garbage time and got blown out by a good-but-not-great Tulane team in Week 1.
This will be UCLA’s first game since it parted ways with DeShaun Foster after an embarrassing blowout loss to New Mexico. How many times have we seen teams play better than the sum of their parts right after a coach gets fired? There’s this, too — UCLA’s biggest issue to this point in the season has been its offensive line. Per PFF, Nico Iamaleava has been pressured on 42% of his drop backs so far this season. That’s terrible — only Wisconsin’s Danny O’Neill has been pressured at a higher-rate among qualified power-conference quarterbacks. However, I don’t see Northwestern’s defensive line as particularly threatening. Coming off a bye with a new coaching staff, UCLA should have a better plan in place for how to protect Iamaleava.
Pick: UCLA over Northwestern | +195 on DraftKings
Arkansas State over Louisiana-Monroe
Pop quiz: How many times has ULM been favored in a conference game since the start of the 2013 season? The answer is 22 times. The Warhawks are 7-15 against the spread in those contests with 14 outright wins. In home conference games as a favorite over that span, it’s been even worse — 3-14 against the spread (17% cover rate) and 10-7 straight up. It’s not a huge sample size, but my argument is this: ULM might be the toughest FBS job in the country given the resources situation there. This is a program that hasn’t gone over .500 in Sun Belt play since 2013. It’s not a surprise that the Warhawks often under-perform when they’re playing the role of favorite.
What is a surprise, though, is to see ULM favored at home against Arkansas State this weekend. The Red Wolves are 0-3, but they’ve lost 1-score games to Iowa State and Kennesaw State the last couple of weeks. Nothing to be ashamed of there. The Red Wolves also rank slightly higher according to most public models entering Week 5. On principle alone, I like Arkansas State this week.
Pick: Arkansas State over Louisiana-Monroe | +115 on BetMGM
Virginia over Florida State
This is almost purely a spot play. I say almost because I have liked what I’ve seen from the Cavaliers this season. UVA is top-30 nationally in EPA-per-play when passing and running the ball, per Game on Paper. This is clearly Tony Elliott’s best team since taking over Virginia and he has a veteran quarterback in Chandler Morris who is putting up career-best efficiency numbers in his age-24 season.
Here’s Florida State’s situation: the Noles play Miami next week in a game that everyone expects to be a preview of the ACC Championship Game. But before that game, FSU has to go on the road to Virginia on a short week. Historically, FSU has often overlooked ACC foes like Virginia. Since the start of 2013, FSU is 13-19-2 against the spread with when favored by between 3 and 14 points against an ACC opponent. Based on expectations derived from money line probabilities, FSU would have been expected to win about 24.5 of those games. On the field, the Noles went just 22-12.
Pick: Virginia over Florida State | +220 on Fanatics
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
