We’re now at the midpoint of the 2025 season.
It’s been a tough year for underdogs so far. They’re winning outright just 24% of the time in FBS vs. FBS games. That’s much lower than the rate over the previous 3 seasons combined (27.6%).
Nevertheless, we’ll try to find some plus-money winners in Week 8.
Upset picks Week 8
Here are 5 upset picks for this Saturday:
UConn over Boston College
When I look at UConn, I see competency. The Huskies beat FIU 51-10 last week. They have a road win over Buffalo. They split close games with Ball State and Delaware. They took Syracuse to overtime back in Week 2. Competency. That’s not what I see when I look at Boston College, who has lost back-to-back ACC games by a combined 72 points. They also have a double-digit loss to Stanford. This is an Eagles team that’s going to be ineligible for the postseason by early November whether they win this game or not. UConn, on the other hand, is just 2 wins from bowl eligibility and has played well in virtually every game this season. The Huskies are 29th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric (BC is 124th).
Pick: UConn +105 on bet365
Washington over Michigan
After last week’s debacle against USC, I think we have to ask the question: What if Michigan is bad? Both of Michigan’s losses this season have come to ranked teams, but no one would mistake Oklahoma or USC for CFP locks at this stage of the season. Michigan’s only wins this year are against Central Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska. The 14-point win over the Badgers is pretty underwhelming in retrospect (Wisconsin lost 37-0 at home to Iowa this past week). Washington isn’t perfect, but the Huskies do have a good offense and a great run defense.
Pick: Washington +180 on BetMGM
South Carolina over Oklahoma
This is more of a bet against Oklahoma than it is a bet on South Carolina. The Sooners have an elite defense but the offense is bad enough that they probably shouldn’t be favored by this much against any SEC team. Oklahoma is 98th in schedule-adjusted EPA this season. South Carolina is 85th, so perhaps the under is the right play for this game. But I think there’s a chance Oklahoma is on the cusp of a downward spiral and losing outright in Columbia is certainly on the table. In the Shane Beamer era, the Gamecocks have been home underdogs 12 times. They’ve won outright in 5, including 3 of those victories by 20+ points.Â
Pick: South Carolina +175 on bet365
BYU over Utah
This is sneakily one of the best games of the week with major Big 12 title implications. The Cougars are 3-0 in conference play and the Utes are 2-1. The winner will be in great position to meet Texas Tech in the conference championship game in early December. BYU is at home and has no apparent weaknesses. It just pulled off an impressive road win over Arizona last week, running for 258 yards in the process. Utah has been prone to giving up explosive runs this year so I like that matchup for BYU.
Pick: BYU +145 on bet365
Georgia Tech over Duke
This is a pretty massive game in the ACC this week. The Yellow Jackets are underdogs on the road to Duke despite being ranked No. 12 in the country. Usually in cases like this, I would side with the betting markets’ favorite over the AP voters. But I think we’ve seen Georgia Tech raise its level in key spots under Brent Key enough to know that it’s capable of winning big in this game. We saw it against Clemson earlier this year and we’ve seen it over and over again in the past. Duke has beaten up on the likes of Syracuse and Cal, but the Blue Devils were also out-classed by Illinois and Tulane. I think the Yellow Jackets will find a way to win this one outright.
Pick: Georgia Tech +105 on Caesars
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
