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Predicting every SEC team’s final record after Week 1: How far does Florida slide and who can win 10?
By Joe Cox
Published:
One week into the season, how does it all stack up in the SEC? We try to avoid overreacting on the first 60 minutes of the season … but it’s not always easy. Still, here’s a quick peak at how we see the regular season shaping up for the entire SEC, now that Week 1 is in the rear-view mirror.
Georgia: 12-0 (1-0, beat No. 14 Clemson 34-3)
Absolutely nothing in Week 1 changed the big picture for the Dawgs. Yes, the schedule is fairly brutal, and it could drop Georgia a road loss. But until and unless somebody hangs with Georgia, the presumption of their excellence has been earned.
Texas: 10-2 (1-0, beat Colorado State 52-0)
Sure, Colorado State wasn’t the Denver Broncos, but Texas was solid in Week 1. In fact, there was some thinking here about boosting the Texas projection to 11-1, and that could still be in the cards. Let’s see how they fare at Michigan on Saturday. At this point, the guess is Georgia gets the Horns and somebody else sneaks a win, but that second possibility is looking a bit less likely after a 545-192 yardage edge in Game 1.
Alabama: 10-2 (1-0, beat Western Kentucky 63-0)
Much the same story as Texas. Also an impressive performance, although Western Kentucky is a bit suspect as an opponent. Still, the 600-145 yardage edge kind of speaks for itself. As does 4 40+ yard plays. Alabama had 21 such plays in 2023. For now, it’s Georgia and another mystery loss projected for the Tide.
Ole Miss: 10-2 (1-0, beat Furman 76-0)
Everything said above remains true here. But if a couple lower-echelon FBS teams weren’t tests for Texas or Alabama, FCS Furman offered no competition for the Rebels. The76 points and 772-172 yardage gap certainly mean something, although Ole Miss being pretty good and Furman being putrid is a good start. The Rebels 13 20+ yard plays led the SEC in Week 1.
Missouri: 10-2 (1-0, beat Murray State 51-0)
The Tigers cleared the bench early but still dominated against FCS Murray State. Suddenly a look down the schedule gives the Tigers a great shot to be 7-0 heading into their game with Alabama on Oct. 26. More than wins and losses for the next few weeks, watching the defense to see how it holds up in the post-Blake Baker era will be the focus.
Tennessee: 9-3 (1-0, beat Chattanooga 69-3)
The Nico Iamaleava hype train didn’t hit a bump in Week 1. Although frankly, an octogenarian could’ve played QB for the Vols against FCS Chattanooga. The 718-227 yardage gap joins all the ones above for bizarre and impressive. Week 2 against NC State should give a much clearer picture as to whether UT should be projected as high as 10-2 or at 8-4.
LSU: 9-3 (0-1, lost to No. 23 USC 27-20)
Tough opening loss for the Tigers. The offense isn’t bad at all, but this defense is still a solid notch below where it needs to be for LSU to be a Playoff team. USC QB Miller Moss had a big game, and that doesn’t bode well for this defense. LSU will still be competitive, but they probably played their way out of the CFP picture, at least for the moment.
Oklahoma: 8-4 (1-0, beat Temple 51-3)
Offensively, Oklahoma was a little underwhelming. Jackson Arnold was not in the top half of SEC QBs based on his Week 1 performance. But defensively, forcing 6 turnovers certainly made a statement. The Sooner defense’s performance felt less fluky than their offensive struggles.
Kentucky: 8-4 (1-0, beat Southern Miss 31-0)
A lightning-shortened win didn’t show a ton. Brock Vandagriff was fine and the defense was good. But some of the best news for Kentucky was Florida and South Carolina looking awful. Any of the 3 projected 8-4 teams could easily be upwardly or downwardly mobile off of Week 2.
Auburn: 8-4 (1-0, beat Alabama A&M 73-3)
Week 1 can mean nothing … or it could mean something. One thing learned, albeit against a literally awful defense, is that Auburn can move the ball. The Tigers had 8 30+ yard plays and 5 40+ yard plays. Of course, it remains to be seen if Payton Thorne is quite this electric against power conference competition. It’s too early to be entirely sold on Auburn, but not too early to be impressed.
Texas A&M: 7-5 (0-1, lost to No. 7 Notre Dame 23-13)
The Aggies’ offense is a significant concern. Conner Weigman struggled mightily (12-for-30, 100 yards, 2 picks) and even a very vanilla performance from Notre Dame was enough to get the win in College Station. The news would be even worse if the Aggies weren’t about to play McNeese State, Florida, Bowling Green and Arkansas. That run has to be 3-1 or better or this season will get very long.
Mississippi State: 6-6 (1-0, beat Eastern Kentucky 56-7)
One of the softer nonconference schedules in the SEC could pay dividends here. If the Bulldogs can outlast Arizona State, they can probably pick up a couple of league wins to gain bowl eligibility. Blake Shapen’s Week 2 performance is worth watching.
South Carolina: 5-7 (1-0, beat Old Dominion 23-19)
Carolina didn’t suffer an epic loss, but they did look genuinely incapable of winning 6 games in 2024. Carolina was outgained by Old Dominion and the LaNorris Sellers experiment was not impressive (10-for-23, 114 yards). Carolina did force 4 turnovers though, and the Gamecocks might need to replicate that work to stay competitive.
Arkansas: 4-8 (1-0, beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 70-0)
What did we learn from a 70-0 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff? If anything, it’s that the Razorbacks seem to have better depth than expected. Pick up a win against Oklahoma State in Week 2 and the Hogs will vault up to bowl expectations at 6-6. But tackling Ollie Gordon might be a bit different than going against APB.
Florida: 4-8 (0-1, lost to No. 19 Miami 41-17)
Overreacting? Anything short of a four-alarm emergency siren is underreacting. Miami doubled the Gators in yardage as Florida got Graham Mertz hurt, had 1 20+ yard play and watched Cam Ward carve up the defense like a Thanksgiving turkey. Honestly, 4-8 might be generous with this schedule and this team.
Vanderbilt: 4-8 (1-0, beat Virginia Tech 34-27)
Signs of life? Diego Pavia was plenty of fun, but 26 carries in a game for an SEC quarterback seems like a recipe to see the back-up QB sooner rather than later. Still, Vandy gets some kudos for looking legitimate. Now let’s see it against an SEC team.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
