With a significant week of conference play complete, the SEC outlook is a little clearer.
Week 7 was definitely a big one around the SEC, with some big-time results and some separation from some of the top teams.
Here’s our weekly check of where we see the squads of the SEC ending up in regards to their final regular-season records.
Note that below are the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (5-1, 10-2)
Alabama again leaned on Ty Simpson and took care of a feisty Missouri team. The Tide are entirely capable of going 11-1, but let’s see how the Tennessee game goes before we jump on that situation. The remaining road trips to South Carolina and Auburn don’t really look too tough, so the Vols and LSU are probably the 2 remaining major threats.
Arkansas (2-4, 4-8)
Arkansas had a bit more life against Tennessee than expected, but the schedule ahead is still rough. Auburn and Mississippi State remain the best chances at wins, particularly with both games being at home, but that’s about the best shot the Hogs have. There just aren’t 6 wins here for the taking.
Auburn (3-3, 7-5)
The Auburn Tigers had an absolutely cursed loss, with officiating really damaging their chances for the second time this season. The risk here lies with the Tigers just giving up on the season. Missouri next figures to be another tall task, but Arkansas and Kentucky both follow and Vandy might be reeling by the time Auburn faces it on Nov. 8. We’ll stick with 7 wins, but there might be a 6-6 team here ultimately.
Florida (2-4, 4-8)
Billy Napier didn’t have another miracle, which hurts the slim remaining chance at a decent season that Florida had. Mississippi State and Kentucky are winnable and if UF could sneak another win, Florida State seems to be folding down the season’s stretch run. But picking the Gators to beat Georgia, Ole Miss, or Tennessee is more than can be reasonably expected. Accordingly, we’ll hang at 4-8 for another week.
Georgia (5-1, 10-2)
Georgia won, but its offense continues to be pretty sluggish. The defense is legitimate. Beat Ole Miss and we’re probably calling for 11-1 for the Bulldogs. That said, Georgia was lucky to escape with a win over Tennessee and had it properly been down 17-0 to Auburn, this game might not have been a win either. UGA is a massive piece of luck and a horrible blown call from possibly being 3-3.
Kentucky (2-3, 3-9)
Kentucky was off and dropped a heartbreaker to “Bye,” 17-14. Just kidding… maybe.
LSU (5-1, 9-3)
A solid taking care of business win for the Tigers, who did a nice job containing LaNorris Sellers. The passing game isn’t where LSU needs it to be, but defense and a ground game could carry this team a long way. Arkansas and WKU should be easy wins and, regarding road trips to Vandy and Oklahoma, we’ll call for a split there and then a split of the tough games at home against Texas A&M and at Alabama. That yields a 9-3 finish that leaves LSU hanging on the edge of the CFP.
Ole Miss (6-0, 11-1)
Georgia looks increasingly like the biggest stumbling block between Ole Miss and potentially going 12-0. For the moment, we’ll still call for a Rebel loss… but a win next week probably changes that prognosis.
Mississippi State (4-2, 6-6)
Mississippi State was off, but at the moment, Florida and Arkansas on the road are the path to bowl eligibility. Both of those teams look like squads that the Bulldogs could indeed beat.
Missouri (5-1, 10-2)
It was a frustrating Week 7 loss for Mizzou, as Eli Drinkwitz seemed to alternate calling a fairly conservative game with a wild late fake punt call that critically failed. But the good news it that even in defeat, Mizzou looked good enough that Texas A&M now looks like the only remaining loss on the schedule ahead. A 10-win season would likely put Missouri in the CFP, although the lack of a marquee win would be at least a little bit concerning.
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Oklahoma (5-1, 7-5)
The Oklahoma Sooners were humbled in Week 7. John Mateer did play, but clearly wasn’t his best self. How many games can the Sooners win if that continues to be the case? South Carolina looks winnable, but after that, it’s Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Calling for even 1 win in that batch feels a bit optimistic, but that’s where we stand.
South Carolina (3-3, 5-7)
If South Carolina wants to save the season, next week’s home game against Oklahoma looks suddenly pivotal. Win that one, and closing victories over Coastal Carolina and Clemson could mean 6 wins. Lose that one and Alabama, at Ole Miss, and at A&M will likely bury Carolina’s season.
Tennessee (5-1, 10-2)
Tennessee didn’t drop the metaphorical ball, which is 2 straight games of basically doing just that. At Alabama still looks awfully challenging, but after that, Tennessee is equipped to sweep the remaining slate and grab that CFP bid.
Texas (4-2, 9-3)
Texas virtually had to win and did manage to best OU, largely with defense and special teams. But it’s hard to see the 2025 version of Arch Manning taking down both Georgia and Texas A&M in November and that might be the only path to the CFP. The next 3 games should be pretty easy and put the Horns in position for one final shot.
Texas A&M (6-0, 11-1)
The Aggies were the better team against Florida and keep rolling on. Games at LSU, Missouri, and Texas likely present a loss or maybe even 2, but for the moment, we’ll stay at 11-1, because A&M has been pretty darn impressive.
Vanderbilt (5-1, 8-4)
Vanderbilt was off in Week 7, but still has some heavy lifting to do. Kentucky and Auburn are probably the 2 easiest games ahead, but if Vandy wants to seriously entertain CFP hopes, at home against LSU next week is almost a must-win. Mizzou, Texas, and Tennessee all remain, so an LSU loss makes 7-5 pretty plausible.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
