September is over (for college football purposes anyway) and we’re finally getting a handle on the SEC. After Week 5, here’s where we have your favorite team tabbed to finish its regular season.
West
Alabama: 12-0
The defense is spotty, the running game comes and goes, and that LSU game feels like must-see TV. But other than that, we don’t see any challenges for the Tide.
Arkansas: 4-8
This is the Arkansas we remember from last year … the one that plays dead one week and the next week convinces us that they’re actually a scrappy little team that’ll upset somebody. So we’re trending up this week.
Auburn: 9-3
Gonna stick at 9-3 despite how good Auburn was, just because the unholy foursome of at Florida, at LSU, home vs. Georgia and home vs. Bama is that good. We’re predicting Auburn to nab one, and we wouldn’t be shocked if they split the four, but it’s hard to go to 10-2 for the moment.
LSU: 11-1
That Auburn matchup on Oct. 26 is looking like a fine warm-up for Alabama 2 weeks later. We’ll stay in the same spot on the Tigers.
Mississippi State: 7-5
This was a tough week for the Bulldogs, who really looked like a 7-5 team. They can handle Tennessee, Arkansas, Abilene Christian and probably Ole Miss. A&M looks more in play than it did, but we’ll see.
Ole Miss: 5-7
The next 3 are crucial: home against Vandy, at Mizzou, and home against A&M. We’ll hold at 5-7, because the rest of that schedule is pretty tough. The Egg Bowl could end up as a bowl elimination game.
Texas A&M: 6-6
The Aggies were lucky to hang on Saturday against Arkansas, but if the running game doesn’t get more consistent, 6 wins are looking increasingly like the A&M ceiling.
East
Florida: 10-2
The next 2 weeks will tell the story of whether the Gators are a legitimate CFP contender or merely are lucky to play in one of college football’s most inconsistent divisions. At this point, we’d guess the Gators simply split the difference.
Georgia: 11-1
Off week, so nothing really changes for the Bulldogs, who will continue to be a CFP favorite.
Kentucky: 6-6
To be candid, Kentucky played so badly on offense that we considered going straight to 5-7. This didn’t look like a bowl team. If the Wildcats can figure out their offense and get a win out of their bye week at home against Arkansas, they can still have a decent season. If not, it’s free fall.
Missouri: 9-3
The Tigers look like sizeable favorites against everybody left except Georgia (at Athens) and Florida (at Mizzou). If the Gators have a stumble game, that could be it.
South Carolina: 6-6
That running game leaves us hanging on to a potential upset somewhere along the line (A&M?) for the Gamecocks, which would earn them a bowl bid.
Tennessee: 3-9
It was a bye week, but Kentucky and Mississippi State didn’t exactly look like world beaters. Maybe UT can turn it around this season?
Vanderbilt: 5-7
It will be a big, big game with Ole Miss next week. If the Commodores want to salvage and kind of season, they really need a win. The problem is the same could be said of the Rebels.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
