Predicting the 2026 Playoff: No. 10 Alabama
By Adam Spencer
Published:
Could this be the last year we have a 12-team College Football Playoff?
It’s certainly possible, as several conferences are seemingly in favor of expanding the postseason to up to 24 teams. But for now, we only have 12 teams in the Playoff, meaning competition for those spots will be fierce this fall.
Since it’s officially “Talkin’ Season,” we here at Saturday Down South are making some early predictions for which teams will make the Playoff field this year.
Here’s a reminder about the College Football Playoff format this year:
- Automatic bids for the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 champions
- Notre Dame gets an auto-bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the last CFP rankings
- Top Group of 6 champion receives an auto-bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the final CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they won their conference championships or not
And here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far:
- No. 12 — Boise State
- No. 11 — Michigan
Now, without further ado, let’s dive into our No. 10 seed … Alabama.
The Playoff Path
The Alabama Crimson Tide face a very important 2026 season. More specifically, head coach Kalen DeBoer faces a make-or-break season in Tuscaloosa.
Even though they became the first team ever to win a road game in the College Football Playoff, taking down Oklahoma in Norman, the season ended on a sour note with a blowout 38-3 loss to eventual-champion Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
But hope springs eternal in the offseason, and there are plenty of reasons to be confident in the 2026 Crimson Tide. The schedule, for example, sets up well for Alabama to start off 5-0. In fact, any path to the Playoff has to start with wins over East Carolina, at Kentucky, Florida State, South Carolina and at Mississippi State.
That’s non-negotiable.
The season also must end with 3-straight wins at Vanderbilt, vs. Chattanooga and vs. Auburn. That’s also non-negotiable. The Tide have to win those 8 games.
The season will be won or lost with a 5-week stretch that looks like this:
If the Tide go 8-0 in the aforementioned games, they could theoretically get into the Playoff with a 1-3 mark in those 4 games. But to be more comfortable and all but assure a Playoff berth, going 2-2 would be optimal.
DeBoer has actually had Kirby Smart‘s number the past couple of regular seasons, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tide beat the Georgia Bulldogs in Tuscaloosa. I also think, of those 4 games, the Tennessee game on Rocky Top will be the “easiest” due to turnover at key positions, including quarterback, for Josh Heupel and the Vols.
Getting Texas A&M at home is a plus for Alabama, and who knows what Lane Kiffin‘s first year at LSU will be looking like by the time Nov. 7 rolls around.
Tennessee’s QB situation is worse than Alabama’s, in my opinion. I’d rather have either Austin Mack or Keelon Russell over anyone on the Vols’ roster. Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks are a solid receiving tandem. We’ll see if NC State WR Noah Rogers can return from an injury he suffered in the A-Day Game.
The defense is loaded. The secondary might be the best in the country. Yhonzae Pierre is a potential first-round pick at edge rusher.
The biggest concern is the same as last year’s. Let’s dive into that now.
The Possible Roadblock
The old problem is the same as the new problem. Can the Tide run the ball at all?
The offensive line has some question marks. And remember, this is a unit that didn’t do very well run blocking last year even with first-round draft pick Kadyn Proctor at tackle and fifth-round pick Parker Brailsford at center.
Jam Miller, Alabama’s “leading” rusher with 504 yards, is gone. He was a seventh-round pick in the draft.
One thing that should help is the potential to have a running quarterback, assuming Russell wins the job. But will that be enough?
The Tide figure to be worse throwing the ball this fall after losing QB Ty Simpson to the NFL Draft (where he was also a first-round pick). That means the rushing attack needs to step up in a big way.
Last year, Alabama finished No. 125 in the FBS in rushing yards per game. That’s out of 136 total programs.
Georgia had the No. 4 run defense last year. Auburn was No. 10. Vanderbilt was No. 18. LSU was No. 32. Yes, all of those teams have new faces on defense and lost some major talent, but they’ll still be decent at stopping the run.
If Alabama is going to make another Playoff run, the offensive line and the running backs need to be much better. We’ll see if that happens.
Odds to Make the Playoff
According to Kalshi, Alabama currently has a 46% chance to make the Playoff this year. That gives the Tide the 11th-best odds to make the 12-team field.
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Check back here on Monday for our projected No. 9 seed… another team out of the SEC.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
