Predicting the 2026 Playoff: No. 11 Michigan
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The College Football Playoff as we know it might not exist for much longer.
Proposals are being put together for expanding the field to up to 24 teams in the near future. But for 2026, the Playoff remains a 12-team field. So that’s what we’re working with when projecting this year’s postseason lineup.
We here at Saturday Down South are making our early Playoff projections, and today’s column features the No. 11 seed, which comes to us via the Big Ten.
Here’s a reminder about the College Football Playoff format this year:
- Automatic bids for the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 champions
- Notre Dame gets an auto-bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the last CFP rankings
- Top Group of 6 champion receives an auto-bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the final CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they won their conference championships or not
Yesterday, we predicted Boise State to be the No. 12 seed.
Today, we continue with our projected 11-seed… the Michigan Wolverines.
The Playoff Path
Things looked bleak in Ann Arbor this offseason, as off-the-field issues led to the departure of head coach Sherrone Moore. Then, Michigan had trouble finding a new head coach, as rumored candidates like Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, Louisville’s Jeff Brohm and others either weren’t offered or weren’t interested in the position.
Fortunately for Michigan fans, they landed one of the most-reliable coaches on the planet in former Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham. He brings a much-needed sense of stability to Ann Arbor following the tumultuous (but successful) Jim Harbaugh era and ensuing Sherrone Moore era.
He also returns young QB Bryce Underwood, who should have his feet under him a bit more entering Year 2 as the Wolverines’ starter. Top receiver Andrew Marsh is back. Leading rusher Jordan Marshall is back.
New OC Jason Beck is highly regarded in the industry and should be a breath of fresh air after Chip Lindsey last year. There’s a lot to like on the offensive side of the ball this year in Michigan.
That’s the good news. Now let’s dive into some of the less-than-ideal factors working against the Wolverines.
The Possible Roadblock
The month of November looks like it could be a tricky one for Whittingham and company to navigate. The month starts with a visit from fierce rival Michigan State. Though the Wolverines should win that one in the Big House, it might be a tough, physical game.
Next up? A trip to Autzen Stadium to face an Oregon squad with Playoff aspirations of its own. Sure, Indiana went to Autzen and won last year, but the Ducks are a very difficult team to beat at home.
After that, UCLA comes to visit, but then the Wolverines end the regular season with a road trip to Columbus to face their biggest rivals, the Ohio State Buckeyes, in The Game.
If Michigan isn’t at least 7-1 heading into the month of November, it might need to go 2-2 or 3-1 in those games to lock up a Playoff berth.
Also something to note — the defense is almost entirely rebuilt. The top 5 tacklers from last year are gone. The sack leader is gone. The interceptions leader is gone. Whittingham has his work cut out for him on that side of the ball.
But Michigan attracts elite talent and has plenty of money in its NIL coffers. We’ll see if that translates to wins once again this fall.
Odds to Make the Playoff
According to Kalshi, Michigan currently has a 32% chance to make the Playoff. That means you can buy each contract for 32 cents, and if the Wolverines make the field of 12, you’ll win $1 for every contract you hold.
You can see some of the teams with the best odds below:
If you think Underwood will take a major step forward this fall and believe that Whittingham is the stable leader the Wolverines need, there’s a lot of value on picking them to make the Playoff.
Interested in getting in on the fun? Click here to sign up for Kalshi today. Use Kalshi promo code SDS to receive a $10 bonus when you make an initial $20+ deposit.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
