If you’ve got Playoff life, that’s all you can ask for heading into the 4th Saturday of November. How we’re sitting here just 9 days away from Thanksgiving is beyond me, but it’s not my job to figure out how time works.
It is, however, my job to figure out how the Playoff works. Or rather, how it’ll look.
This week, we’ve got a few things to sort through. How high will Oklahoma rise after winning at Alabama? Also, will the Tide come in behind Notre Dame? Will the ACC have anybody in the top 12? Is the Big 12 going to have 3 teams in the top 12 and move a step closer to being a lock for multiple bids?
Let’s dig into what I expect Tuesday night’s rankings will look like.
(Don’t forget that this is the week that’s sandwiched between the 2 college basketball games so the rankings show starts at approximately 8:30 p.m ET.):
12. Utah
Utah’s ceiling is limited by losing to the top 2 in the Big 12, which is BYU and Texas Tech, who appear destined for a rematch in the conference title game. That could make it a difficult path to build on a résumé that doesn’t have any more remaining opportunities for quality wins. They’ll likely need chaos to make the field, but for now, I’d expect the Utes to stay ahead of Vanderbilt.
11. BYU
Aforementioned Utah will help BYU’s floor, which has now become an important thing to see on a weekly basis in the event that it gets to the Big 12 Championship Game with 1 loss. Just like we saw last year with SMU, there could be questions about whether a second loss to Texas Tech would knock the Cougars out of an at-large spot. Of course, the No. 11 team in this ranking would barely miss out on a field that would still need the ACC and Group of 5 champs. Taking care of business in decisive fashion to close the regular season is paramount for BYU.
10. Notre Dame
Just because the AP put Notre Dame ahead of Alabama doesn’t mean the selection committee will see it that way. As much as the selection committee respected the Irish’s turnaround after the 0-2 start, there are still only 2 needle-moving victories, though the most recent one was in decisive fashion at 7-win Pitt. Saturday was the first time that Notre Dame picked up a road victory against a Power Conference team with 3 wins. Clearly, the selection committee values how dominant the Irish have been, but jumping fellow 2-loss Alabama might not be in the cards.
9. Alabama
Losing to Oklahoma at home for loss No. 2 will now have the selection committee viewing Alabama through a different lens. It’s not that the Tide laid a horrendous egg by falling at home, but they’re now going to be compared to other 2-loss teams. So if we’re comparing Alabama to other 2-loss teams, we have to put the Tide behind the Oklahoma team it lost to, but here’s your side-by-side with aforementioned Notre Dame:
- Wins vs. current AP Top 25: Alabama 4, Notre Dame 1
- Wins vs. Power Conference bowl teams: Alabama 5, Notre Dame 2
- Wins vs. current AP Top 10: Alabama 1, Notre Dame 0
Yes, the Florida State loss happened. It also didn’t prevent the selection committee from making Alabama the top 1-loss team the last 2 weeks. Keep that in mind.
8. Oklahoma
Beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa was 1 of the 3 most impressive wins of the season. Maybe you’d put it just behind Alabama winning at Georgia, and Indiana winning at Oregon. Whatever the case, it was monumental. OU now has a trio of wins vs. current AP Top 25 wins, 2 of which were in true road games. That’ll make the Sooners the top 2-loss team in the field with some wondering if they should be ranked ahead of Oregon. And oddly, the Texas loss hurts OU’s résumé in one sense because it’s a 3-loss team now, but the Sooners also don’t have ceiling limited by the Longhorns.
7. Oregon
Quietly, Oregon flexed with a lopsided win against bowl-bound Minnesota. That was on the heels of a gritty showing at Iowa, which allowed the Ducks to move to No. 8 in the CFP rankings. With Alabama likely moving back, I’d expect Oregon to move up another spot ahead of an all-important showdown vs. USC. The Ducks have an opportunity to get a marquee win that would all but lock in a Playoff berth. The question will become what happens if Oregon is 10-2 with its best win being at 4-loss Iowa?
6. Ole Miss
Ole Miss is a virtual lock to make the Playoff, even after the selection committee put Texas Tech as a higher-ranked 1-loss team, much to the chagrin of Lane Kiffin. The Florida win gave Ole Miss that all-important 10th victory, and while the résumé might lack some depth, winning at Oklahoma has aged well. The only real intrigue surrounding Ole Miss is whether it’ll win at Mississippi State to lock in a home Playoff game, or if it’ll lose and be forced to travel for Round 1.
5. Texas Tech
Blowout wins against Utah and BYU matter a lot, which is exactly why the Red Raiders should be in position to get another bump after the Alabama loss. There’s clearly some grace for the loss at 7-win Arizona State because Behren Morton was hurt. It’s been nothing but blowouts outside of that game, which should continue against West Virginia in a couple weeks. Tech could absolutely be in position for a first-round bye if it can win a likely rematch against BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game.
4. Georgia
You could set your watch to a Georgia beatdown of Texas. As a result, the selection committee moving Georgia into Alabama’s spot feels obvious, though ironic considering that was the Dawgs’ lone blemish this season. But now, UGA has a trio of wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams and looks like a team that’s playing its best ball down the stretch. The selection committee tends to give those teams a lot of respect. Will it be enough respect to usurp 1 of the 3 remaining unbeatens? Probably not, but it’s not a bad place to be with the SEC slate in the books.
3. Texas A&M
It’s possible that if the halves were reversed, the selection committee would be looking at Texas A&M with an eyebrow raised. That didn’t happen, though. Instead, A&M avoided what would’ve been a disastrous loss to 3-win South Carolina. The Aggies have had the benefit of facing 7 of the bottom 8 teams in the SEC, though obviously the Notre Dame win in South Bend aged like wine. It’s a Playoff-bound team. That’s obvious. What’s not as obvious is whether A&M will beat Texas in Austin to lock in its first conference championship berth of the 21st century and/or a Round 1 bye.
2. Indiana
The Hoosiers are 11-0 for the first time in program history and likely a Purdue win away from perhaps locking in a Round 1 Playoff bye. It’s crazy that the latter could be true regardless of what happens in the event that they get Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The selection committee didn’t view the Penn State win as a setback, so one shouldn’t expect anything out of the ordinary this week, especially with how much A&M had to battle to beat 3-win South Carolina.
1. Ohio State
It’s undeniable that Ohio State has been the most dominant team in the sport. The Buckeyes haven’t trailed in the 4th quarter all year, and they haven’t led by single digits in the 4th quarter since Sept. 27. That’s dominance. The Buckeyes might only have 1 win vs. a current AP Top 25 team, but that game control matters. The Buckeyes won’t be moved off the top spot ahead of the penultimate week of the regular season.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
