Welcome to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, where the matchups are drool-inducing and the storylines are seemingly never-ending.
In the Cotton Bowl, we have a rematch of one of the most memorable national championship games this century. In the Orange Bowl, we have a battle between 2 programs that are trying to prove big money can produce big results. In the Rose Bowl, we have Blue Blood vs. New Blood. And, in the Sugar Bowl, we have a rematch of one of the most enthralling games of the 2025 regular season.
College Football Playoff quarterfinals picks
The opening round of this year’s CFP featured a pair of lower seeds going on the road and knocking off higher-seeded teams for the first time. Will we see more seed upsets in the quarters? Last year, the higher-seeded team lost every game in this round. Or will the format change from the offseason produce a different vibe this time around?
Here’s who I’m taking in each of the 4 games.
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Cotton Bowl: 2 Ohio State vs. 10 Miami
It’s an oversimplification of what happened, but consider this as a sign of just how good the Ohio State defense is: Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza secured himself the Heisman Trophy by putting 13 points on the Buckeyes.
No one scores on Ohio State. The Buckeyes haven’t given up more than 16 points in a game all year. Though the Buckeyes don’t create turnovers (14 in 13 games) or tackles for loss (5.7 per game, 58th) or pass deflections (3.2 per game, 118th), they have the nation’s seventh-best third-down defense and the nation’s best red zone defense.
How? An unyielding front. No FBS unit has given up fewer scrimmage plays of 10-plus yards this season. Ohio State flummoxes opposing passers, allowing just 5.3 yards per attempt (second) with a sub-60% completion rate.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has coached circles around inexperienced passers this season. While that label doesn’t really apply to Miami’s Carson Beck, it is worth mentioning that Beck’s willingness to take chances has gotten him in trouble all throughout his career.
Miami couldn’t throw the ball in the wind against Texas A&M, but it’ll need to be able to move the chains through the air in this one. On the other side, Ohio State’s approach with quarterback Julian Sayin actually bodes well against an aggressive front that wants to pressure the quarterback so it can help out a poor-tackling backend. I trust the Buckeye offense more in a game where the tempo figures to punish both sides for any mistakes, and there’s a lurking possibility that Jeremiah Smith, fuming after being denied the Biletnikoff, goes Terminator on whatever defense is put in front of him.
Winner: Ohio State
Orange Bowl: 4 Texas Tech vs. 5 Oregon
Oregon’s offense is amazing. Texas Tech’s defense is amazing. Oregon’s defense is gettable. Texas Tech’s offense is stoppable.
The Ducks, who had to face Indiana in the regular season and got a game under their belt in this year’s CFP while Tech sat idle, have been the more tested team. There are questions about the quality of the quarterbacks the Red Raiders have seen, but even the staunchest Tech supporters will admit Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is the best this bunch has seen by a Texas mile.
Oregon’s team speed is remarkable, and it is getting better. Heavily impacted by injuries later in the year, Oregon’s skill positions welcomed back Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. in the first-round win over JMU and are not-so-patiently waiting for Evan Stewart to join them. Stewart won’t be back for the Orange Bowl, but the Ducks still have enough to push this Red Raider team to the brink.
Tech’s defense has masked offensive issues all year. The Red Raiders lead the nation in takeaways (31) and are among the national leaders in tackles for loss per game (7.4, sixth). Because they create so much down-to-down havoc, they’re among the best in the country at forcing teams into third downs (15 a game) and then attacking (30.8% conversion rate). They’ve only given up 22 red zone trips all season.
What happens against an offense that is just going to get the better of the defense on a couple of drives? And what happens if Oregon actually stresses the Red Raider defense? Can the offense do enough when the deck isn’t stacked in its favor? Tech has benefited from outstanding starting field position, on average, but the offense is too susceptible to stalling out or simply never getting started. Tech ranks in the seventh percentile nationally in early-downs EPA per play, and it has a woefully unreliable run game.
Tech, which is 11-2 against the spread this season, has been undervalued by Vegas for most of the season. During the active 6-game ATS winning streak, the Red Raiders have beaten the number by an average of 13.8 points per game. But there is a certain “been here before” element to this matchup that skews toward Oregon. This is the round where Oregon’s season ended last year. And anyone expecting the second-half Ducks we saw will be disappointed.
Winner: Oregon
Rose Bowl: 1 Indiana vs. 9 Alabama
Oddsmakers say Indiana is a touchdown favorite. Analytics-based models like the Hoosiers by multiple scores. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a 2-touchdown win for IU. College Football Nerds’ model projects a 13.3-point IU win. Kalen DeBoer and Alabama have been here before. (Kinda.) Indiana is still technically an upstart after it was quickly dispatched in the opening round of last year’s CFP. Models are telling us, though, that an average performance from both teams nets an easy Indiana win.
But that’s essentially the takeaway from prep for this game; Alabama has to play its best game of the year and get some help to beat this titan. Indiana ranks fourth nationally in offensive success rate and 12th in defensive success rate, per Game on Paper. The Hoosiers are the most prolific offense in the country and the third-stingiest defense in the nation on third down. Only 4 offenses make more trips to the red zone and no defense has allowed fewer.
Alabama ranks 30th in net success rate, per Game on Paper. The profile is fine, but the Crimson Tide have made their way to this moment by living on the edge. Alabama is 4-1 in 1-score games. The Tide have a defense that creates a ton of havoc, but a one-dimensional offense that makes that havoc generation essential.
Indiana gets pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz, which bodes well in this matchup. The Hoosiers shouldn’t have to commit bodies to stopping Alabama’s run game — it is past the point of no return — and if the line is making Alabama’s Ty Simpson uncomfortable in the pocket, a wobbly offensive day from Alabama is a possibility.
The winner of last year’s 8-9 game toppled an unbeaten Big Ten champ in the Rose Bowl. This year’s Alabama team is not last year’s Ohio State team. If Indiana brings its A-game, this might wind up being a shocking result.
Winner: Indiana
Sugar Bowl: 3 Georgia vs. 6 Ole Miss
Georgia is better than it was when these teams met in the regular season. Ole Miss might not necessarily be worse, but it is certainly less. The Rebels didn’t feel the loss of Lane Kiffin in their first-round win over Tulane, but they might in New Orleans. Too many guys who play too large a role in the Ole Miss operation have too many distractions.
And they’re already 7 points behind Georgia on the scoreboard.
Perhaps the second meeting doesn’t follow the same script as the first. It might actually be weird if it did. Ole Miss had 35 points through 3 quarters, ending each of its first 5 drives of the game with points.
Neither side could stop the other. No one blinked until the fourth quarter. Georgia ripped a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, then forced a 3-and-out. It sat on the ball for 5 minutes after that, scored another touchdown to go up 40-35, and then forced another 3-and-out.
Georgia’s defense figured something out in the fourth quarter that day, and it has only accelerated from there. Through the first 27 quarters of the season, Georgia gave up 5.1 yards per play and 0.319 points per play.
Since the start of the fourth quarter of the first meeting with Ole Miss, Georgia has allowed 4.4 yards per play and 0.203 points per play.
From a per-play efficiency standpoint, that’s the difference between the 36th-ranked defense and the seventh-ranked one.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Georgia has also upped its pressure rate over its last 4 games from 31.2% to 39.2% and upped its interception rate from 1.4% to 3.7%.
A young defense grew into its responsibilities, and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann coached through the inconsistencies. Georgia has been better for it. Since escaping Florida with a 4-point win, Georgia has won every game it has played by at least 7 points. That stretch included a 35-10 win over Texas and a 28-7 win over Alabama.
This has arguably been one of Kirby Smart and Co.’s best coaching jobs yet. After a one-and-done showing in the CFP last year, expect a much different Georgia team this time around. The Dawgs’ defense tilts the field, and the Rebels’ inability to slow the run down proves their undoing.
Winner: Georgia
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
