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We’ve reached an important milestone in the offseason: college football win totals have been updated at multiple betting apps following the conclusion of spring football.
Using win totals from FanDuel, this piece will attempt to determine schedule difficulty for each SEC team during conference play. The methodology is simple: what is the average win total for your 8 SEC opponents?
First, an acknowledgement: This is not a perfect exercise. Win totals are often as much about a team’s schedule as it is about anything else. For example: Auburn and Florida both have win totals of 7.5, but that doesn’t mean Vegas views them as equal teams. However, hopefully this will still provide some insight into who will have the toughest — and easiest — path in the SEC this season.
Ranking the toughest schedules in the SEC
With that being said, let’s start with the easiest schedules in the SEC by average opponent win total:
The “easy street” tier
16. Texas | Average opponent win total: 6.1
15. Tennessee | Average opponent win total: 6.4
14. Mizzou | Average opponent win total: 6.5
13. Ole Miss | Average opponent win total: 6.6
12. Auburn | Average opponent win total: 6.9
For the second year in a row, Texas has the SEC’s easiest conference schedule (per this methodology) by a significant margin. The Longhorns get to face projected doormats Kentucky and Mississippi State as well as Arkansas and Vanderbilt, who may struggle to reach bowl eligibility. Rivals Oklahoma and Texas A&M aren’t quite College Football Playoff contenders, so those games don’t do much for Texas’s strength-of-schedule, either. The lone significant test in conference play will come against Georgia.
It’s interesting to see Tennessee this low in the rankings considering the Vols have to face Georgia, Alabama and Florida this season. All 3 of those games figure to be pretty tough. But that’s pretty much where the obvious challenges end. Tennessee and Texas are the only teams in the SEC to have just 3 conference matchups against teams with win totals of at least 7.5.
The last schedule I’ll touch on in this tier is Auburn’s. Like Texas, the Tigers have a super tough matchup against Georgia on their slate but not much else to speak of until the Iron Bowl. The middle of Auburn’s schedule is a little meatier, which explains why Auburn is just 12th on this list. In a critical year for Hugh Freeze and his staff, Auburn’s schedule appears to be very gettable.
The “middle” tier
No. 11 LSU | Average opponent win total: 7.1
No. 10 South Carolina | Average opponent win total: 7.1
No. 9 Texas A&M | Average opponent win total: 7.1
No. 8 Georgia | Average opponent win total: 7.4
No. 7 Alabama | Average opponent win total 7.5
No. 6 Florida | Average opponent win total: 7.5
No. 5: Arkansas | Average opponent win total: 7.6
First, let’s try to parse through the 3 teams at the top of this tier: LSU, South Carolina and Texas A&M. Averages aside, I’d argue South Carolina has the toughest schedule of that trio. The Gamecocks have to face 3 SEC teams with a win total of 8.5 or higher while the Tigers and Aggies have just 2 apiece.
Georgia and Alabama are next up. The Tide have the tougher schedule by this methodology, but I’d argue UGA has a more difficult path. UGA has to face Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida and Texas. Yes, Mississippi State and Kentucky are there too, but there are several losable games — something Alabama just doesn’t have to deal with. The floor for Alabama’s schedule is higher, but there’s not nearly as much top-end opposition as Georgia will have to deal with.
Florida is one of two programs (Oklahoma) that has to face 5 SEC teams with a win total of at least 8.5 this year. There are a couple of gimme games against Kentucky and Mississippi State, so the Gators have a pretty high floor in terms of what they can accomplish in SEC play. But their next-easiest opponent (by preseason win total) is Texas A&M, who could end up contending for a CFP berth if things break right.
Arkansas has a difficult schedule, but the Razorbacks only have to face one of the big boys — Texas. The Hogs miss Alabama and Georgia.
The “uh oh” tier
No. 4 Kentucky | Average opponent win total: 7.9
No. 3 Vanderbilt | Average opponent win total: 7.9
No. 2 Mississippi State | Average opponent win total: 8.0
Look, these are expected to be the 3 worst teams in the SEC by virtually any available measure. Maybe it won’t shake out that way, but that’s what preseason priors are saying basically across the board. There’s not a huge gap between the level of competition these teams will face and what you’ll see in the previous tier. There’s just one major difference — Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State can’t play themselves.
The “are you kidding me?” tier
No. 1 Oklahoma | Average opponent win total: 8.4
Goodness gracious, Oklahoma — this schedule is something else. By preseason win total, the Sooners are scheduled to play 5 of the best 6 teams in the SEC. The only big dog they miss is Georgia. Every single SEC team on this schedule has a win total of at least 7.5, so there’s no gimmes.
Oklahoma faced a similarly-difficult schedule last season, but at least the Sooners were able to face a bad Auburn team in 2024. That was their only SEC win until they upset Alabama in November. If anything this schedules is even more difficult now with teams like Auburn and LSU projected to be better than they were a year ago.
Here’s a table showing each team’s average opponent win total during SEC play:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
