Editor’s Note: We tracked various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season. Here is the final tally.
Fittingly, Arkansas closed the season with the best ATS performance of any SEC team in the bowl games. The Razorbacks hammered Texas, 31-7, as a seven-point favorite.
That gave a resurgent Bret Bielema-coached team a combined ATS +/- of plus-135 — nearly double the next-best SEC team. Arkansas won 10 of 13 bets against the Vegas line in 2014. If a gambler backed the Hogs for $100 every week, he or she earned a profit of $609.10, or 46.9 percent ROI.
Tennessee, Georgia and Missouri were also big winners against the spread. Collapses late in the season knocked Ole Miss (+24.5) and Texas A&M (-14) from that same category, while South Carolina, Auburn and Vanderbilt were big losers in Vegas during the 2014 season.
The first chart below is a final tally of how each SEC team performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Georgia was favored by 10 points, but won by 20, the Bulldogs were +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams performed relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Arkansas | +135 | 10-3 |
| 2. Tennessee | +71.5 | 7-6 |
| 3. Georgia | +67 | 8-5 |
| 4. Missouri | +53.5 | 9-4 |
| 5. Ole Miss | +24.5 | 7-5-1 |
| 6. Florida | +18.5 | 7-6 |
| 7. Mississippi State | +13 | 7-6 |
| 8. LSU | +6.5 | 6-6-1 |
| 9. Kentucky | -6.5 | 7-5 |
| 10. Texas A&M | -14 | 5-8 |
| 11. Alabama | -25.5 | 4-8 |
| 12. South Carolina | -54 | 5-8 |
| 13. Auburn | -57.5 | 4-9 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | -79 | 6-6 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
Alabama’s incredible streak of playing as a betting favorite, dating back to the 2009 SEC championship, continued this season, as the Tide entered the College Football Playoff semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite against Ohio State.
Nick Saban’s team faced an average line of nearly three touchdowns as chalk in 14 games this season.
SEC East champion Missouri faced an average line of just minus-5.3, 10th in the SEC and a good indication of how the team was able to finish 9-4 ATS.
Meanwhile, three SEC teams were underdogs on average, including Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Alabama | -19.7 | -51.5 vs. Western Carolina |
| 2. Georgia | -15.5 | -43 vs. Charleston Southern |
| 3. Auburn | -13.2 | -37.5 vs. Samford |
| 4. Mississippi State | -12.8 | -44.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
| 5. Ole Miss | -10.4 | -49.5 vs. Presbyterian |
| 6. Florida | -9.9# | -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan |
| 7. LSU | -9.5 | -43 vs. New Mexico State |
| 8. Texas A&M | -8.2 | -47 vs. Lamar |
| 9. South Carolina | -6.4 | -37.5 vs. Furman |
| 10. Missouri | -5.3 | -26 vs. South Dakota State |
| 11. Arkansas | -2.8 | -40.5 vs. Nicholls State |
| 12. Tennessee | +0.8 | -26.5 vs. Chattanooga |
| 13. Kentucky | +2.6 | -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
| 14. Vanderbilt | +10.1 | -20 vs. Charleston Southern |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Texas A&M hopes it will get paired with some lower game totals next season thanks to new defensive coordinator John Chavis, but for 2014, the Aggies saw an average over/under of 65.4, topping Auburn (62.0) and South Carolina (58.5) as the SEC team Vegas expected to be involved in the highest-scoring games.
At the other end of the spectrum, Vegas consistently projected low-scoring games for LSU (51.0), Florida (50.8) and Vanderbilt (49.8).
| Team | Average Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 65.4 | 76.5 vs. Lamar | 6/7 |
| 2. Auburn | 62.0 | 72.5 at Georgia | 7/5 |
| 3. South Carolina | 58.5 | 65.0 vs. East Carolina | 6/6 |
| 4. Georgia | 58.4 | 72.5 vs. Auburn | 9/5 |
| 5. Arkansas | 56.2 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 7/5 |
| 6. Mississippi State | 57.6 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 5/7 |
| 7. Missouri | 53.3 | 71.5 vs. Indiana | 6/7 |
| 8. Ole Miss | 53.0 | 64.0 vs. Texas A&M | 6/6 |
| 9. Alabama | 53.8 | 63.0 vs. Texas A&M | 6/5 |
| 10. Kentucky | 52.8 | 59.5 vs. Mississippi State | 8/4 |
| 11. Tennessee | 52.5 | 59.5 vs. Arkansas State | 6/6 |
| 12. LSU | 51.0 | 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State | 5/8 |
| 13. Florida | 50.8# | 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan | 8/4 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | 49.8 | 59.5 vs. Old Dominion | 5/7 |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
