Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
For all the consternation and hand-wringing about the SEC’s Week 2 performances, the conference has aligned almost eerily close to the Vegas lines.
In fact, through two weeks, eight of the conference’s 14 teams has a combined differential (the difference between the Vegas line and the actual result in every game) of less than a field goal.
There are four notable exceptions, all of which reside in the SEC West. Ole Miss, with an offense that is averaging nearly 75 points per game, has demolished the spread by a combined 50 points in its two games. Texas A&M (+20.5) is the only other SEC program that has outperformed the spread by at least a field goal.
At the other extreme, Arkansas (-23.5) and Auburn (-44) are the only two programs that have performed more than two touchdowns worse than the spread.
It’s still early, and a lot of the SEC teams have performed about to the level of expectations. The SEC West will continue to be one of the most fascinating divisions in all of football, but no longer claims seven ranked teams.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Alabama is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Crimson Tide is +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Ole Miss | +50 | 2-0 |
| 2. Texas A&M | +20.5 | 2-0 |
| 3. Tennessee | +2 | 1-1 |
| 4. Vanderbilt | +1 | 1-0-1 |
| 5. Kentucky | +1 | 1-1 |
| 6. Georgia | +0.5 | 1-1 |
| 7. Florida | +0 | 1-1 |
| T8. Mississippi State | -1.5 | 1-1 |
| T8. LSU | -1.5 | 0-1 |
| 10. Alabama | -2.5 | 1-1 |
| 11. South Carolina | -8.5 | 1-1 |
| 12. Missouri | -14 | 0-2 |
| 13. Arkansas | -23.5 | 1-1 |
| 14. Auburn | -44 | 0-2 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Ole Miss’ average Vegas line is minus-37.5, highest in the conference. It’s also an indication of how weak the Rebels competition has been thus far.
Vanderbilt is the only SEC team that is, on average, an underdog at this point in the season. More than half the SEC’s teams are better than a three-touchdown favorite on average. That includes Alabama (-23.8), which is an uncharacteristic seventh thanks to a neutral-site game against Wisconsin to open the season.
The bottom four teams on this list, unsurprisingly, have been involved in one of the three conference games that have been completed.
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Ole Miss | -37.5 | -43 vs. UT-Martin |
| 2. Auburn | -29 | -47.5 vs. Jacksonville St. |
| 3. Florida | -27.5 | -34.5 vs. New Mexico St. |
| 4. Arkansas | -27 | -31.5 vs. UTEP |
| 5. Georgia | -26.8 | -35.5 vs. La.-Monroe |
| 6. Missouri | -26 | -42 vs. SEMO |
| 7. Alabama | -23.8 | -34.5 vs. Middle Tenn. |
| 8. LSU | -21.3# | -39 vs. McNeese State |
| 9. Texas A&M | -16.5 | -30.5 vs. Ball State |
| 10. Tennessee | -10.0 | -21.5 vs. Bowling Green |
| 11. Mississippi State | -8.8 | -21 at Southern Miss |
| 12. Kentucky | -5.0 | -17 vs. La.-Lafayette |
| 13. South Carolina | -4.3 | -7 vs. Kentucky |
| 14. Vanderbilt | +8 | -2 vs. Western Kentucky |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Not surprisingly, Ole Miss has gone over the posted total in both its early-season games, thanks to prolific play by quarterback Chad Kelly and the receivers. Florida is the only other SEC team that has gone over the total in both games.Defense has ruled the roost early in the season, with five different teams going under the total every time out.
Tennessee leads the SEC with an average posted total of 66.0, beating out Texas A&M — a staple at the top of the list in 2015. Alabama, thanks to a total of 44.5 during its Week 1 matchup with Wisconsin, has averaged the lowest total in the SEC thus far.
| Team | Avg. Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Tennessee | 66.0 | 68 vs. Bowling Green | 1/1 |
| 2. Texas A&M | 64.8 | 65 vs. Arizona State | 1/1 |
| 3. South Carolina | 59.0 | 62 vs. North Carolina | 0/2 |
| 4. Auburn | 58.9 | 63 vs. Jacksonville St. | 1/1 |
| 5. Mississippi State | 57.3 | 62 at Southern Miss | 0/2 |
| 6. Kentucky | 57.0 | 58 vs. La.-Lafayette | 1/1 |
| 7. LSU | 56.5# | 60.5 vs. McNeese St. | 0/1 |
| 8. Missouri | 55.0 | 55 at Arkansas State | 0/2 |
| 9. Ole Miss | 55.0 | 56 vs. Fresno State | 2/0 |
| 10. Florida | 54.3 | 54.5 vs. New Mexico St. | 2/0 |
| 11. Vanderbilt | 54.3 | 60 vs. Western Ky. | 0/2 |
| 12. Arkansas | 53.8 | 57 vs. Toledo | 1/1 |
| 13. Georgia | 53.0 | 57.5 vs. La.-Monroe | 1/1 |
| 14. Alabama | 50.5 | 56.5 vs. Middle Tenn. | 1/1 |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
