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We’re down to five undefeated teams. Two (UCF and USF) will play each other, so we will finish the season with a maximum of four undefeated teams. Since it appears unlikely that UCF or USF will break through this year unless they are the only undefeated team, the other three undefeated teams, Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame, likely will hold the first three Playoff spots in next Tuesday’s initial rankings and will continue to do so as long as they stay perfect.
But what about the 1-loss crew?
There is a lot of potential in the land of 1-loss teams, and it’s extremely likely that our fourth Playoff participant will come from this group of heritage programs (Texas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Ohio State), top-tier SEC bowl favorites (LSU, Georgia, Florida) and plucky underdogs (Kentucky, Iowa, West Virginia, Washington State).
So let’s breakdown which teams have the best shot at getting in the CFP!
Win and you’re in
No. 4 LSU: I believe LSU will be in the committee’s top four when the first rankings come out Tuesday. That’s a strong spot to be in because if they win out, they get in and no team can ask for a better position than controlling their outcome.
A second loss, however, becomes tough to justify. And I get it LSU fans. The schedule is probably the hardest in the nation and in reality a loss on the road to Florida and a loss at home to Alabama shouldn’t dismiss the Tigers. But the other side of the coin is simple. How can you be one of the four best teams if you lose to two of the three toughest teams on the schedule? Doesn’t seem fair, but that’s life.
No. 7 Georgia: The Bulldogs are in LSU’s boat where if they win out, they get in because those wins would include Florida, Kentucky and Alabama/LSU in the SEC Championship Game. Right now I don’t know if the Bulldogs are that good, but we’ll see.
Win and you’re in … probably
No. 12 Kentucky: If Alabama, LSU and Georgia control their destiny, I don’t see why Kentucky wouldn’t. They’ve already beaten Florida (on the road no less) and would have to beat Georgia and LSU/Alabama in the SEC title game to finish this dream run.
Why wouldn’t a 12-1 Kentucky team with wins over Florida, Georgia and Alabama/LSU AND an SEC championship get in? Because they’re not “supposed” to be in that situation? Oh well. The games are played on the field and if they prove it on the field who cares if they are “supposed” to be there or not.
Win and you’re ALMOST in
No. 5 Michigan: The Wolverines ALMOST control their own destiny, and if Alabama beats LSU, they will. Michigan gets Penn State at home to start November and Ohio State on the road to end the month – both very winnable games and frankly they are the games that Jim Harbaugh needs to win at this point. That Indiana game on Nov. 17 seems like a trap to me. But if Michigan wins out and beats one of the remaining four contenders (Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern and Purdue) in the Big Ten conference Championship Game, the Wolverines will be in the playoff. Mark it down.
No. 6 Texas: Only in their dreams could the college football power brokers have Michigan AND Texas deep in Playoff contention this late in the season.
So here’s where it could get tough: Say Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan and Texas win out, who gets in between Michigan and Texas? Can’t take ’em both. Or even worse … say LSU, Clemson and Notre Dame win out and now you’ve got the choice between an Alabama team that always gets the benefit of the doubt (deservedly so), Michigan and Texas.
The committee picked Alabama over 2-loss Big Ten champion Ohio State last year. Ohio State went to the Playoff in 2016 despite losing to eventual Big Ten champion Penn State. So the precedent is there, but shutting out conference champions isn’t the norm for the Playoff. And I tell you this: If the latter scenario happens and Alabama gets in over Texas and Michigan, there’s no way we don’t get a Playoff expansion by the 2020 season. None.
Just win and see what happens
No. 8 Oklahoma: All the Sooners can do is win and wait. It’s likely they will get a second shot at Texas in the Big 12 championship game and that might be all they need if other things shake their way.
No. 9 Florida: The Gators aren’t in the same boat as LSU and Georgia or Kentucky because they don’t control their destiny to the SEC Championship Game. Florida needs Kentucky to lose again. Without a Wildcats loss, they can get into a New Year’s 6 bowl but a Playoff berth seems unlikely even at 11-1.
No. 13 West Virginia: The good news for West Virginia is its toughest games are still ahead and they would likely have to beat Texas or Oklahoma twice to have a gripe. I don’t know that it would be enough to get the Big 12 champ in, but there’s certainly a chance.
No. 18 Iowa: If the Hawkeyes can win at Penn State this Saturday and at Purdue next Saturday they will rise on the radar. Still need another loss from Wisconsin to get into the conference title game, but I’m not ready to toss Iowa away just yet.
This team just lost to Purdue
No. 11 Ohio State: Enjoy the many faces of Urban Meyer during a gut-wrenching blowout loss to an unranked opponent.
In all seriousness, Ohio State was a flawed team and those flaws got exposed in a major way last Saturday. It’s hard to believe that there’s anything the Buckeyes can do to get back in the Playoff picture unless they win the Big Ten championship and get a lot of help. Last year even a Big Ten championship couldn’t erase the taste of the 55-24 shellacking Iowa put on Ohio State last year. Granted, that was their second loss last year, but the 49-20 blowout loss to Purdue feels the same way.
Win and maybe you’ll get lucky
No. 14 Washington State: There just doesn’t seem to be enough traction for the Pac-12 to have a spot at the table. Washington State’s body of work includes wins against Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington – that’s not good enough.
Thanks for playing
No. 22 N.C. State: We’re all ready to toss the Wolfpack in the trash, much like Clemson did this past Saturday. They had a chance to prove they were worthy and failed miserably.
Corey Long is a freelance writer for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow Corey on Twitter @CoreyLong.
