Rivalry Week SEC Primer: Texas takes aim at A&M’s perfect record, plus the rest of the slate of in-state hate

Everything you need to know about the SEC Rivalry Week slate, all in one place. (A bold • denotes Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.)

Game of the Week: Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas

It really is great to have this game back on the annual calendar. For too long the Aggies and Longhorns were like a divorced couple in a small town who still frequent the same haunts, loudly insisting from opposite ends of the bar they’ve never been better since the breakup. Everybody knew otherwise and now nobody has to pretend.

For the second year in a row, the road team rolls into this game with visions of an SEC championship and Playoff run in its sights while the home team is reduced to spoiler. Last year, the wind was in Texas’ sails. This time, the initiative is with A&M, proud owner of an 11-0 record for just the 3rd time in school history. Every Aggie knows the stakes, and the dates that accompany them by heart. A win on Friday night will mark their first victory over the ‘Horns since 2010 (also in Austin), and clinch their first undefeated regular season since 1992. That will send them on to Atlanta for the first time since joining the SEC, where they can claim their first conference championship since 1998. From there, the aim shifts to the Playoff and Texas A&M’s first national title since … wow, 1939? Talk about a great depression, am I right? Anyway, as if beating Texas wasn’t incentive enough in its own right, all of the above depends to some extent on beating Texas.

A loss would not cost the Aggies their seat in the Playoff, which they effectively booked a couple weeks ago by pulling off the biggest comeback in school history against South Carolina. It would, however, almost certainly cost them a shot at the SEC crown, and presumably drop them out of the top 4 in the CFP committee rankings, costing them a first-round bye. Just as important, it would puncture the aura of invincibility that comes with that zero in the loss column, which is doing a lot of heavy lifting reputation-wise for a team that has been consistent but rarely dominant. A&M is a solid No. 3 in both the traditional polls and the CFP rankings, but doesn’t fare as well as in advanced metrics, coming in at No. 5 in SRS, No. 7 in SP+, No. 9 in FPI, and No. 10 in FEI.

If that alphabet soup of algorithms doesn’t mean anything to you, you can still imagine that an 11-1 outfit that missed Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Vanderbilt in the SEC rotation suddenly looks slightly less imposing heading into the postseason than one that’s cruising into the conference championship game with its unblemished record intact. And that’s without getting into the implications for quarterback Marcel Reed‘s Heisman campaign. The Aggies are in the driver’s seat, but not at a point where they can feel comfortable taking anything for granted.

On the other side, Texas’ CFP case with 3 Ls on the ledger is a lost cause barring an absolute bloodbath that eliminates half the teams currently in front of them in the pecking order in a single weekend. Not gonna happen. Instead, the Longhorns are focused on the implications for their own sophomore quarterback, as cautious optimism over Arch Manning‘s trajectory threatens to bloom into full-blown momentum heading into 2026.

Not to read too much into a confident romp over Arkansas — what self-respecting quarterback hasn’t looked confident against Arkansas? — but as the season has worn on it’s impossible not to notice how much more comfortable, consistent, and accurate Manning has been as he’s settled into the weekly rhythm of the position. You can chalk that up to the schedule, or to the pass protection in front of him, which has stabilized over the past month as the o-line has reassembled at full strength. At the end of the day, though, the truth is that he’s just a normal sophomore: Talented, erratic, frustrating and slowly but surely figuring it out as he goes.

All of this, of course, is playing out against the backdrop of the inescapable Arch Discourse. After his first SEC game, a 29-21 loss at Florida, people were already talking and writing about him like he was a hopeless bust who’d personally committed some kind of fraud against the American public. The reality on the field was never that bad. But he did seem to be acutely aware he was playing under a cloud. On Saturday, it looked like the cloud was finally gone. It should be: In 6 games since the Florida loss, Manning is 5-1 as a starter with a 12-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio and a perfectly cromulent 147.1 passer rating. He’s thrown for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns in 3 of the past 4 as he stays on pace to become a 3,000-yard passer. His 2 best games, convincing wins over Vanderbilt and Arkansas, have both come in that span. (Not coincidentally, they were also both in Austin, after Texas spent the entire month of October on the road.) He is not a Heisman contender or a lock to go on to a Hall-of-Fame career at the next level. By any other standard, he is on schedule as his first year as a starter draws to a close.

Now, as encouraging as his trajectory has been, nobody is defining the starting quarterback at Texas by his capacity to put the torch to Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The next step is to deliver in the kind of game it feels like the whole world is watching. The blemish on Manning’s résumé down the stretch is Texas’ 35-10 loss at Georgia in Week 12, which snuffed out the Longhorns’ Playoff chances and left Arch looking as overmatched as ever vs. a CFP-caliber defense. All eyes will be on him again this weekend against Texas A&M, another golden opportunity to spoil the Aggies’ perfect season, put the “BUST” narrative to bed, and reset expectations heading into 2026. The tenor of his offseason is poised to change dramatically based on what happens on Friday night.

Prediction: • Texas 30 | Texas A&M 26

Georgia (-13.5) vs. Georgia Tech

Last year’s UGA-Tech game in Athens was one of the most entertaining of the year, an instant classic in which Georgia rallied from a 17-0 deficit at the half to win/escape/survive in 8 overtimes. It was also much of the country’s introduction to Tech quarterback Haynes King and his unabashedly throwback style. King accounted for 413 total yards and 5 touchdowns before it was all said and done, foreshadowing his emergence this year as one of the most productive dual-threats in the country.

Watching King reminds me of watching the Heisman Trophy winner circa, like, 1956, running an offense that would have been legible at the time. He’s not quite that old-school: He puts it in the air nearly 30 times per game and ranks among the ACC leaders in completion percentage, yards per attempt and efficiency. But they Jackets are a single-wing team at heart, and King is their long-limbed, slightly awkward, relentlessly efficient workhorse. Excluding sacks, he ranks 5th among FBS quarterbacks in carries (163), 8th in rushing yards (943), 2nd in 1st-down runs (69), and tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns (15), per PFF. He ain’t pretty on the hoof. But he’s an ace ball-handler, he absorbs punishment like a giant side of ham, and he’s always, always falling forward.

For SEC fans who remember King as an underclassman at Texas A&M, struggling to adapt to Jimbo Fisher’s doorstopper of a playbook, there’s something satisfying about watching him find his niche. My main memory of King at A&M is of him being beaten to a pulp in a 2022 loss at Alabama and very nearly rallying the Aggies to an improbable comeback anyway. He’s never see been a guy you could imagine playing on Sundays. But, thanks to the transfer portal, he is going to be remembered as a damn good college quarterback. 

Prediction: Georgia 32 | • Georgia Tech 23

Alabama (-6.5) at Auburn

Look, if Jordan-Hare Stadium was “haunted,” or whatever, Auburn would have a much better record there than 4-14 in SEC play since the pandemic. (That’s not including nonconference losses in that span to Penn State, Cal and New Mexico State.) But it has been an agonizing venue for Alabama, specifically. With the exception of 2011, every odd-year trip to The Plains in the Nick Saban era was either a Bama loss (2007, 2013, 2017, 2019); a narrow escape by way of a face-melting comeback (2009, 2021, 2023); or, at best, a 60-minute slugfest still in doubt well into the 4th quarter (2015). It’s a thing, although just as often it’s been the Tigers staggering away from the proceedings looking ashen.

This year, the first trip of the Kalen DeBoer era is a wild card. The Crimson Tide can sew up a trip to the SEC Championship Game with a win, but they have not inspired great confidence under DeBoer on the road: They were 2-4 outside of Tuscaloosa in 2024, and their combined margin of victory in 3 road wins this year over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina (13 points) is less than the margin in their opening-day loss at Florida State (14 points). Meanwhile, Auburn is a wounded animal of a team with an interim head coach, an unpredictable quarterback situation, and nothing to lose. The Tigers came into the season thinking the Tide might be as gettable as they’ve been in a while, and for all that’s gone wrong in the meantime, there’s no reason that can’t still be true.

Among Alabama’s concerns with the postseason looming, the most pressing remains an anemic ground game. The top 3 running backs, Jamarion Miller, Kevin Riley and Daniel Hill, all average less than 4.0 yards per carry for the season; as a team, Bama has yet to break 4.0 yards per carry in a single SEC game, a startling development for a team that has not only historically defined itself by running the dang ball, but which boasts a colossal o-line rotation that averages north of 325 pounds per man. Including sacks, the Tide are next-to-last in the SEC in rushing offense vs. Power 4 opponents, topping out at 146 yards against Vanderbilt. They rank 130th in rushing success rate, worst in the conference.

Before their Week 12 loss to Oklahoma, there was a resigned acceptance that this is just what the offense under DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb looks like. The last time they worked together, at Washington, the 2023 Huskies posted similarly underwhelming numbers on the ground en route to the CFP Championship Game. But Ty Simpson is not quite Michael Penix Jr., and asking him to drop back 48 times against a top defense (as he did against Oklahoma) is still slightly above his pay grade. The Sooners overcame a nearly 200-yard deficit in total offense largely by capitalizing on a pair of uncharacteristic Simpson giveaways, including what may go down as a season-altering pick-6 for both teams. The more the offense demands of Simpson, the higher the likelihood of those kinds of mistakes, and the less Bama can afford them. Even at this late date, some semblance of balance would be a welcome development.

Prediction: • Alabama 28 | Auburn 19

Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-3)

If it was up to me, Diego Pavia‘s ticket to the Heisman ceremony would already be booked. He has the stats; he has the moments; he has the juice. The life he has singlehandedly injected into an program as comatose as Vanderbilt is one of the most remarkable feats I’ve seen in a couple of decades covering college football. Other than maybe Robert Griffin III at Baylor, I can’t come up with another player who has meant more to his school. And RG3 has a Heisman to show for it.

In reality, it’s going to come down to the wire. Pavia has made a big move in the race over the past few weeks on the strength of a couple of gonzo stat lines in wins over Auburn and Kentucky, the 2 best games (on paper) of his career. For the month of November, he leads the FBS in total offense and touchdowns, and leads the Power 4 in efficiency. (My go-to statistic these days, Total QBR, doesn’t break down by month, but Pavia would almost certainly be No. 1 in November if it did; at any rate, he ranks 5th nationally for the year.) He’s up to No. 4 in the latest Heisman betting odds, just ahead of Marcel Reed but still well behind frontrunners Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin and the surging Jeremiyah Love.

One issue for Pavia’s campaign is that many voters probably have not seen him at his best. Vandy’s wins over Auburn and Kentucky unfolded in the relative obscurity of the SEC Network, while his most high-profile outings at Alabama and Texas resulted in the Commodores’ only losses. (He did show out in a prominent win over LSU in Week 7, but not so memorably that it’s going to move the needle more than 6 weeks later, after LSU’s season has collapsed.) As if the stakes in Saturday’s trip to Tennessee weren’t high enough – in-state rivalry, Playoff implications, the first 10-win season in school history on the line – it will also be Pavia’s last chance to make an impression on the skeptics who still think of him as more of a scrappy overachiever than a full-blown star. He can’t control anybody’s vote, but he can leave them with no doubt just how big his impact has been.

Prediction: • Vanderbilt 34 | Tennessee 31

LSU at Oklahoma (-10.5)

Oklahoma is poised to finish its unlikely November turnaround by punching its ticket to the Playoff. If it does, it will be because of HAVOC. Per gameonpaper.com, “havoc rate” is a metric that combines various disruptive stats – interceptions, forced fumbles, sacks, tackles for loss and passes broken up – as a percentage of a defense’s total snaps. Brent Venables has made a career out of generating havoc: First at Clemson, where his defenses regularly checked in near the top of the national leaderboard, and now at OU, where the Sooners lead the nation in havoc rate this year at 19.1%. 

Most of that is due to a front seven that lives in opposing backfields. Oklahoma leads the nation in sacks and TFLs, the latter by a wide margin. (Sacks are included in the TFL total, for the record.) Lately, though, the pressure has finally translated into turnovers – the Sooner have eight takeaways in the past 3 games, after generating a grand total of 4 in the first 8 games. They’ve been crucial ones, too, and again largely the result of the pass rush. Tennessee and Alabama both coughed up the ball multiple times under duress, resulting in defensive touchdowns in both games as well as what turned out to be the game-winning field goal against the Tide. The defense also came down with a couple of drive-killing INTs in last week’s defensively-driven, 17-6 win over Missouri.

Notably, they’ve done most of that without their best pass rusher, R Mason Thomas, who hasn’t played since pulling up lame during his season-altering fumble return TD at Tennessee in Week 10; he remains doubtful to play Saturday against LSU. In Thomas’ absence, Oklahoma has still managed to record a dozen sacks by committee. Venables’ blitz-heavy scheme has had a lot to do with that, generating open rushing lanes for linebackers Kip Lewis and Owen Heineke; the tenacious efforts of Taylor Wein and Gracen Halton along the front line has, too. Given the Sooners’ struggles on offense, there are no illusions that keeping this train on the tracks depends on every man on the other side of the ball doing his part.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 23 | LSU 10

Ole Miss (-7.5) at Ole Miss

Excuse me while I get on my high horse. By all rights, this Egg Bowl should be one of the high-water marks in Ole Miss history. Instead, it’s setting up to unfold against a backdrop of bitterness and dread as Rebels fans wait for the other shoe to drop. As of this writing, the hurricane of speculation over where Lane Kiffin will be hanging his hat in 2026 remains just that: Speculation. Still, resignation seems to have set in that he is on his way out, most likely to LSU, which has reportedly offered Kiffin at least $90 million over 7 years as well as a guaranteed $25 million annually to stock the roster. Barring a leak between now and then, we’ll find out on Saturday. 

The standing assumption is that, if he is leaving, Kiffin will bow out immediately and hand the reins to an interim coach for the Rebels’ impending Playoff run. That scenario is not a given. First of all, it takes a win on Friday to wrap up a CFP bid for granted, which given the lurid history of this rivalry is flirting with hubris. (Especially in Starkville.) Ole Miss still has to win the dang game. Once that box is checked, it’s on to the next, more existential question: What kind of coach is willing to abandon a potential championship run with the team he’s built from scratch just to cash a check from a conference rival?

In the grand scheme of things, once you consider the raise Kiffin would demand to remain in Oxford it’s not even that much bigger of a check. He’s already a wealthy man making an obscene $9 million a year despite having never previously led a team to the Playoff or a major conference title as a head coach, and despite spending the better part of a decade as a punchline after getting fired at the airport at his last high-profile gig. He’s already at a program that has proven it’s willing and able to support a Playoff-caliber roster and restock it on an annual basis in the NIL/portal era. He has as much job security as anyone in his profession. He has a chance to play for a championship right now, not at some indeterminate point in the future that might never arrive before he’s sent packing like the last guy. 

What kind of coach looks at the players who have bought into his vision and then with the goal within reach says to them, thanks for the blood, sweat, and tears, but this thing we’ve built together is not worth seeing through to the end? Or looks at a fan base that in many cases has quite literally bought into his vision, and says hey, I appreciate you digging deep to attract the talent that made the dream a reality, but we all know this team is not really good enough to get it done? Let’s hope for Ole Miss’ sake and the sake of the sport that we are not actually about to get our answer.

Playoff: • Ole Miss 29 | Mississippi State 20

Clemson at South Carolina (-3.5)

South Carolina took Shane Beamer‘s status off the table this week, announcing Beamer will return in 2026 despite a miserable year for a team that opened at No. 13 in the AP poll. An offseason on the hot seat awaits, give or take a few degrees depending on how it goes on Saturday against the hated rival Tigers.

Dabo Swinney, for all his problems, has not spent down that much of the goodwill he’s banked at Clemson yet. But the ’25 team has drained the account more rapidly than any other in the Swinney era. A preseason contender, the Tigers took the fast track to irrelevance, dropping the opener against LSU – a much bigger red flag in hindsight than it was at the time – on the way to a 3-5 start. They’ve won three straight since to salvage a bowl game and a shot at a winning record, which is better than the alternative, at least. Win or lose on Saturday, the result is still going to be the worst record at Clemson in 15 years.

One of the prevailing narratives before the season was the potential of this team to vindicate Swinney’s portal-averse, recruit-and-develop approach to roster-building. Instead, it has accomplished the opposite. In addition to a house-cleaning of the coaching staff, Tigers fans are also looking forward to what they hope will be a more aggressive approach to the portal this winter – possibly even at quarterback, where 3 -year starter Cade Klubnik will be part of an exodus of mostly underachieving talent. The pickings behind him are slim. For his part, Swinney has insisted his philosophy has not changed, and Clemson will only add transfers to fill specific vacancies. “Starting quarterback” might seem like a pretty specific vacancy to the rest of the world, but whether the only person who matters sees that way is TBD.

Prediction: South Carolina 24 | • Clemson 22

Florida State at Florida (-1.5)

Can you remember the last time Gators-Noles generated any heat? Do the kids still acknowledge this as a meaningful rivalry?

Seriously. The last time Florida and FSU met as ranked teams: 2016, under head coaches Jim McElwain and Jimbo Fisher. Their teams were ranked 13th and 15th, respectively, which at the time made it a relatively meh year by the standards of the series. In 7 meetings since, there hasn’t been a single entry between teams with winning records – including this year’s, when both sides are limping in with a combined 6-14 record vs. FBS opponents. Eight different head coaches have manned the headsets in that span, half of them in interim roles. (That number includes Florida’s current placeholder, Billy Gonzales, who is still seeking his first win since taking over in late October for the exiled Billy Napier, as well as Florida State’s Odell Haggins, who twice served as interim head coach, in 2017 and ’19.) Before FSU confirmed this week that it plans to retain embattled coach Mike Norvell, there was a nonzero chance that both teams would be led this year by short-timers, and not for the first time.

That’s not a rivalry. It’s a series of half-hearted skirmishes between decimated regiments in a war that’s already over.

I’m going to have this game on a 2nd or 3rd screen strictly out of a sense of professional obligation. I’ll mainly be monitoring Florida QB DJ Lagway‘s body language for signs he still has any interest in wearing a Gator uniform again after the clock hits zeroes. Reader, you are not obligated to watch. If you are not a fan of either team, I am hereby freeing you to do anything else with the precious hours of your life on a crisp November Saturday afternoon. If you are a fan of either team, I insist on it. Take care of yourself.

Prediction: • Florida State 26 | Florida 17

Missouri (-2.5) at Arkansas

I have a soft spot for the 2025 Razorbacks, a truly chaotic, directionless outfit with an explosive offense, horrendous defense, and resolute commitment to showing up, giving themselves a chance, and then blowing that chance. The Hogs have lost 9 in a row, yet entering the finale somehow still boast a net-positive point differential for the season, 378 to 375. Even after last week’s 15-point loss at Texas, easily their most lopsided loss in SEC play, their total margin of defeat in 7 conference games (40 points) is narrower than the margin in their Week 5 loss to Notre Dame alone (43 points).

OK, I think even Arkansas fans were done feigning that much interest in this team around the time Sam Pittman vacated the premises in late September. Finally, they have something to look forward to (maybe, reportedly?): A new head coach, Alex Golesh, whose TBA arrival was reported on Wednesday. The 41-year-old Golesh has taken the tried-and-true route from Russian immigrant (he moved to the U.S. as a child) to successful SEC coordinator (at Tennessee) to successful rebuilding job at a mid-major (South Florida) and back to the SEC, where he is surely poised to become the highest-paid coach in Arkansas history (you know, assuming it happens). (If I’m Golesh’s agent, I’m taking every opportunity to remind his new bosses that the Wal-Mart logo is literally painted on the field.) The actual rivalry game on the field being drowned out by the buzz over a guy on a different sideline 1,100 miles away is a fitting tribute to the Razorbacks’ efforts against adversity.

Prediction: • Missouri 38 | Arkansas 27

Kentucky at Louisville (-3)

If not for Kentucky’s wipeout loss at Vanderbilt in Week 13, the story here would be “two teams headed in opposite directions.” 

Just a few weeks ago, Louisville was 7-1 and harboring serious Playoff ambitions in a wide-open ACC. Since, the Cardinals have lost 3 in a row in increasingly demoralizing fashion. The first 2 , an overtime loss to Cal and a 1-point decision against Clemson, were heartbreakers that derailed a promising season. The 3rd, a 38-6 blowout at the hands of SMU, was more like a exhausted outfit waving the white flag. Starting QB Miller Moss was sidelined in that game by a foot injury and remains questionable for Saturday. Ditto for leading rushers Isaac Brown (hamstring) and Keyjuan Brown (leg). The Cardinals’ best player, NFL-bound wideout Chris Bell, is out with either an undisclosed injury or an acute lack of interest.

Meanwhile, for a minute there Kentucky was on the upswing. The Wildcats pulled out of a midseason nosedive to win 3 straight to open November, highlighted by a 38-7 thumping of Florida. Redshirt freshman QB Cutter Boley looked like the future face of the program. Then they went to Nashville and got smacked back down the hill in a 45-17 loss that wasn’t as close as the score. All they have to show for their brief bout of competence is a shot at bowl eligibility and, by all appearances, another year of Mark Stoops on the sideline.

If there are any lingering doubts about Stoops’ future, taking out a limping rival will do more to put them to bed than securing a spot in the BadBoy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. There’s no indication that the decision makers in Lexington have any interest in paying Stoops’ onerous buyout or jockeying for position on what promises to be one of the most irrational coaching carousels on record. If you squint hard enough, a 4-1 November looks enough like “momentum” to stay the course.

Prediction: • Kentucky 24 | Louisville 20

Scoreboard

Week 13 record: 10-0 straight-up | 5-2 vs. spread
Season record: 99-19 straight-up | 53-55 vs. spread