March Madness is here! These are the weeks we wait for in the SEC hoops world, and the fact that it’s been 24 months since we’ve had Tournament basketball only sweetens the pot. It’s time for our resident hoopsters Adam Spencer and Joe Cox to weigh in with their thoughts and predictions for a crazy time in Nashville.
1. Who’s going to win the SEC Tournament? Obviously Alabama and Arkansas are the big favorites, but who are the gamblers overlooking?
Adam: If I were a betting man … oh wait, I am a betting man! Give me chalk this year. I do think Arkansas and Alabama will meet in the SEC Tournament final and I think the Tide will cut down the nets. It’ll be a battle of strengths, though. Can Alabama’s defense slow down Arkansas’s red-hot offense? I don’t know, but I’m counting on Nate Oats to have his guys ready for the grind in Nashville.
Joe: Picking the chalk hurts me so much. The last two No. 1 seeds have had a big Friday flop … but it’s hard to ignore that Alabama and Arkansas have been by far the two best teams in the league. I’ll be a contrarian and pick Arkansas, just because the Razorbacks might be the hottest team in the league and because it’s easy to imagine them getting hot and having a great 3-day run. As for Alabama, they could be in that situation where a timely loss now could prevent a meltdown in, say, the 2nd round of the NCAAs.
Adam: As for a value pick as a bettor, I’d be intrigued by Tennessee. Jaden Springer is a legitimate superstar and Yves Pons is an elite defender. If John Fulkerson can score in double figures in every game, the Vols could be the ones to make the surprising run.
Joe: I can see that. LSU and Cameron Thomas probably aren’t getting much respect, largely because they’re inconsistent and they don’t play any defense. But Thomas has been the best player in the league and he could well get hot in Nashville.
2. Who’s the MVP?
Joe: Since I picked Arkansas, I’m going to go with Moody. If we actually get that Alabama/Arkansas game, it promises to be some must-see TV. As for Moody, what doesn’t he do? Deadly from 3, capable of getting to the basket and the foul line, he’s also an outstanding offensive rebounder (9th in the SEC — as a guard). Our analytics department tells me that he led the SEC in win shares. I’m not entirely sure what that means, but I like the sound of it.
Adam: Since I picked Alabama to win it all, I’ll go with a player from the Crimson Tide. Give me Jaden Shackelford to win the tournament MVP award. I like the way he’s been getting to the rim lately. And, if he gets hot from beyond the arc, he can carry the Alabama offense. He’s at his best when he’s keeping defenses honest by getting to the free-throw line. That opens up passing lanes and also helps him create space for his 3-point shot. I think he’ll have a big week in Nashville.
3. Who’s in the NCAAs, and for the teams on the bubble (if there are any), what do they need to do?
Adam: I have Alabama, Arkansas, Mizzou, Tennessee, Florida and LSU all safely in the NCAA Tournament field. The only team I think even has a borderline chance of getting in this week is Ole Miss. The Rebels are the No. 6 seed and play South Carolina on Thursday. If they win and then upset LSU on Friday, they’ll have a chance. I think they would need to win 1 more game and reach the SEC Tournament final to have a realistic shot at March Madness, but hey, crazier things have happened.
Joe: Your 6 are the 6 we’re looking at. Ole Miss doesn’t get a bad bracket. LSU is certainly a team that could be upset, but they’re kind of a lousy matchup for the Rebels (who lost by 10 and 14 when they played in the regular season). If they did sneak past LSU, I can’t see them beating Arkansas … unless Missouri lends a helping hand, but we’ll talk more about that.
4. Of course, Kentucky is the SEC flop of 2021, but what do we need to see from Tennessee in Nashville to avoid throwing them under the same bus?
Joe: Tennessee is very much one of those teams that could lose on Friday or win the Tournament. I’m kind of thinking they ride the struggle bus in Nashville, and then maybe get it somewhat right in the NCAA Tournament … but there’s honestly no reason this UT team shouldn’t reach the Sweet 16 in the NCAAs or the finals of the SEC Tournament. Not saying they should beat Alabama, but there’s no reason they couldn’t.
Adam: I briefly touched on the Vols earlier, but to me, it all comes down to Fulkerson. He scored 14 points and had 7 rebounds in the win against Florida on Sunday. If he can put up numbers like that consistently, the Vols have the talent to make a deep run this week. But, entering that Florida game, he’d scored 4 points in 5 of his previous 6 games. That Fulky needs to go away or Tennessee will lose early.
Joe: And Florida now has the (presumed) advantage of playing UT twice in quick succession. I do listen to the old-time coaches enough to know about the difficulty of beating a team 3 times in a season or twice in quick succession. UT is in kind of a weird spot because its freshmen have been pretty consistent and it’s the veterans who have to put up production now.
5. What worse-seeded team (7 and up since we only have 13 teams now) has the best chance to make noise?
Adam: I know you just called Kentucky a flop, and the Wildcats have been pretty awful for most of the season, but I think they have the talent to be the low seed that makes a Cinderella run. They’re the No. 8 seed, which means they’d have to play 1-seed Alabama in the quarterfinals if they beat 9-seed Mississippi State on Thursday, but that would at least be an intriguing game. If the Wildcats were to stun the team I think will win the tournament, there’s no reason they couldn’t win another game, right?
Joe: Here’s the thing. I give Kentucky about a 2% chance to get past Alabama … and about a 50/50 chance to lose to State. But the X-factor here is Terrence Clarke. If he’s able to play (and Calipari has been very quiet about this) and can show the ability to get to the rim that Kentucky has lacked … well, it gets really interesting. Without him, Kentucky feels a player short. On the other hand, I’m going to throw a big jinx on your guys, Adam. Missouri is the mis-seed of the Tournament. I picked Arkansas to win, but I think the Mizzou/Arkansas game could be the key to the whole tournament. It feels like Arkansas’s survive-and-advance game, but they might not survive.
6. Which of the top 4 seeds is most likely to flame out on Friday and why?
Joe: History says Alabama, but I don’t buy it. Arkansas could get a bad matchup with Mizzou, and Tennessee is certainly vulnerable. But that leaves this LSU team that fascinates me. You want to talk boom or bust, here it is. Offensive-centered teams are a scary thing in March. Can the Tigers defend enough to get it done? Particularly against an Ole Miss team that’s probably playing for its season?
Adam: As I’ve mentioned, the Volunteers (the No. 4 seed) are vulnerable. Yeah, Fulkerson looked great Sunday, but he showed flashes of brilliance at other points during the season before lapsing into more disappointing efforts. If he goes cold again and the Vols don’t get much offense from their veteran leaders like Pons and Victor Bailey Jr., they could absolutely lose to Florida, Texas A&M or Vanderbilt. This is a very mercurial team.
Joe: You’re doing a pretty good job of convincing me that I should have picked UT. Very much a high ceiling/low floor kind of team, aren’t they?
Adam: The Vols’ “A” game is enough to cut down the nets. Their “F” game is enough to have them lose to Vandy or A&M. It’ll be interesting to see which team shows up in Nashville.
7. What will be the story of the 2021 SEC Tournament?
Adam: To me, if Alabama wins as I predict it will, the story will become about the Crimson Tide as a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’ll need some help with either Michigan or Illinois making an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament, but it’s doable. Being a No. 1 seed and getting to avoid teams like Gonzaga, Baylor and Illinois until at least the Final Four is going to be huge. I think the Tide win it all in Nashville and then wait anxiously to see if it’s enough to get them on the 1 line on Selection Sunday.
Joe: Oooh, I like that angle. But here’s the bigger issue. Whoever wins, the SEC never gets credit for Sunday results. My guess is that Arkansas wins and still gets stuck with like a No. 4. seed. Maybe this is a result of my Kentucky heritage, but it feels like every SEC Tournament, there’s some question about whether the Tournament’s ultimate winners or losers will get a bump or drop based on the last game … and they don’t. If Alabama wins, they should be a No. 1. But they won’t be. If Arkansas wins, they should certainly be a No. 3 or maybe even a No. 2. They won’t be. And that will be the ultimate story.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
