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SEC bowl projections after Week 6: Can Florida reach 6 wins?

Published: Oct 7, 2025 · 9:00 AM EDT

Nobody wants to play Billy Napier with his back against the wall.

It’s not on the level of UCLA beating Penn State, but I can’t say I saw this one coming on Saturday morning: Florida 29, No. 9 Texas 21. There will be takes all over the place, but we’re only concerned with its impact on Florida getting to 6-6 and a subsequent bowl appearance. So, can the Gators do it?

My answer to that question a week ago went to the tune of, “It seems pretty much impossible with that schedule.” Now I’d say I hover closer to, “It seems very difficult with that schedule.”

Florida’s best win of the season does not overshadow the fact that the Gators still have to face 5 ranked opponents and currently sit at 2-3 on the year. To reach bowl status, assuming they don’t get in at 5-7 by necessity, the Gators would have to knock off at least 2 more teams currently ranked inside the Top 25 and beat both Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Two of those 5 games come on the road: at Texas A&M and at Ole Miss. One is in Jacksonville against Georgia, and the other 2 — Tennessee and Florida State — will be played at The Swamp.

This brings up another crinkle, though. It’s hard not to like Florida’s odds to make a bowl game better than Mississippi State now, even if the Gators have 2 less wins. Florida gets Mississippi State at home in Week 8, and the Bulldogs’ schedule is plenty tough. There’s a decent chance neither make it, but they’re both well in the hunt entering Week 7. To make things simple, and because there’s another SEC bowl tie-in that we simply haven’t filled to this point, we’ll include both and adjust after Week 8.

A quick note on the Playoff field, which didn’t see much alteration apart from Penn State’s prompt exit after losing to UCLA. Notre Dame is the obvious candidate to take the Nittany Lions’ spot for now, needing to win out against a quite tame schedule. Michigan, Penn State, BYU, Georgia Tech, Virginia and about 3 SEC teams (Tennessee, Missouri and LSU) are all noteworthy contenders for a ticket entering Week 7.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 are simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Orange Bowl: Miami vs. 7/10 winner

Cotton Bowl: Oregon vs. 6/11 winner

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. 5/12 winner