SEC bowl projections after Week 7: With 2 across, who’s next to 6 wins?

Texas A&M and Ole Miss will play football after November this season. Most of us could have guessed that back in August, but the Aggies and Rebels made it official in Week 7 by crossing the 6-win threshold for bowl eligibility.

Now the question is this: Who will join them in Week 8? Not because we care about reaching 6 wins in October, but because we care about the pecking order for the SEC championship, the ensuing bowl season and the College Football Playoff.

Alabama and Tennessee both did their jobs in Week 7, setting the stage for another high-stakes Third Saturday in October with wins over Mizzou and Arkansas, respectively. Both sit at 5 wins, but Alabama has 3 victories over top 25 opponents while Tennessee has none — and Alabama still doesn’t have an SEC loss. If Tennessee doesn’t win this one, the Vols would be essentially out of the SEC Championship Game race and would need to be perfect the remainder of the season for a hope at the College Football Playoff.

Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU, Missouri and Vanderbilt are all 5-1, and 3 of their combined 5 losses came to Alabama. Of the 5 teams listed, I’m most interested in the Commodores. The loss to Alabama was a bit of a kick in the teeth, but Vanderbilt isn’t out of anything yet. How will the Diego Pavia and Co. respond?

Nothing has changed for the bottom of the SEC: The teams that cracked last week’s projections have remained the same. Of the teams not listed in this week’s projections, here’s a ranking of our confidence in their making it to 6 wins, in descending order: South Carolina, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky.

The College Football Playoff projections have changed, however. Oklahoma has fallen far after a truly terrible performance against Texas. I worry about Mateer’s injury, and the Sooners’ coming schedule is absolutely brutal. The Sooners have a big engine and a flat tire.

Georgia Tech assumed Oklahoma’s vacant position in the Playoff, and Indiana walked into Eugene to snatch Oregon’s top 4 bye. Folks, there’s a lot more movement to come.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

• The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 are simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
• This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Orange Bowl: Miami vs. 7/10 winner

Cotton Bowl: Indiana vs. 6/11 winner

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. 5/12 winner

First Round

College Station, Texas: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Memphis

Lubbock, Texas: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech

Athens, Georgia: No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Notre Dame

Eugene, Oregon: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

The Rest

Citrus Bowl: Tennessee vs. USC

ReliaQuest Bowl: Mizzou vs. Michigan

Gator Bowl: Texas vs. Clemson

Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Utah

Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida State

Liberty Bowl: Auburn vs. Arizona

Birmingham Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Appalachian State

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.