SEC bowl projections after Week 9: See who’s in the hunt with 5 weeks left

Nine SEC teams have reached 6 wins and will play in a bowl game this season. Some have odds better than others, but all 9 are still in the hunt for the College Football Playoff.

No SEC team is technically out of the running for a shot at a bowl this season, but there are noticeable tiers among the remaining 7 SEC programs. Auburn and LSU appear likely to join the fray, and Florida has about a 50/50 shot depending on how the team responds to the firing of Billy Napier. The Gators need 3 wins out of the following matchups: vs. Georgia (neutral), at Kentucky, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee, vs. Florida State. As I said in earlier weeks, Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida State would be the “easiest” path here for the Gators.

Then there are the other 4, which combined have pulled off just 1 conference win this season: South Carolina over Kentucky. The Gamecocks nearly pulled off the upset over Alabama last week and will need 3 wins from the following: at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, vs. Coastal Carolina and vs. Clemson.

Mississippi State just needs 2 wins, but the Bulldogs are actually cursed and have 3 ranked matchups on the docket. Kentucky is generationally bad. Arkansas is not entirely helpless but refuses to play smart situational football, which has aided the Razorbacks’ 6 straight losses. Arkansas needs to win out to reach 6 wins.

Shifting gears. Let’s talk about Vanderbilt.

If the season ended today the Commodores have to be in the Playoff, right? Diego Pavia and crew just took down another top 25 program and now look forward to a massive date with Texas in Austin next week. Vanderbilt being this good feels like a disaster for teams like BYU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Miami, which is why the Hurricanes are now out of the projections.

As mentioned earlier, 9 SEC teams are still in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff entering Week 10. Buckle up and get ready for a chaotic 5 weeks of football, folks.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

• The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 are simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
• This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Orange Bowl: Indiana vs. 7/10 winner

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. 6/11 winner

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. 5/12 winner

First Round

Athens, Georgia: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Tulane

Eugene, Oregon: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Notre Dame

Oxford, Mississippi: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt

Lubbock, Texas: No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech

The Rest

Citrus Bowl: Texas vs. Michigan

ReliaQuest Bowl: Tennessee vs. Nebraska

Gator Bowl: Mizzou vs. Louisville

Texas Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Clemson

Music City Bowl: LSU vs. Iowa

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Auburn vs. SMU

Liberty Bowl: Florida vs. Houston

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.