Well friends, for the first time this season, if you take a look at the SEC’s schedule, you’ll see nothing bu5 conference matchups on the slate. And while the early season novelty of nonconference tilts, particularly ones of the Power 4 vs. Power 4 variety, are intriguing and often entertaining, there’s just something about some good old SEC on SEC violence that gets the blood flowing.
In total, we’ve got 8 matchups on the board this weekend, and I’ll be honest, as I begin writing this week’s column, I still don’t know which of these games I’ll be settling on as the 4 games in my official parlay of the week. But with that said, I’ve prepared predictions for all 8 matchups and, as usual, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.
Mississippi State +9.5 over Florida
Florida at -9.5 just feels a little rich for my blood, especially when boosters are already reportedly angling for Billy Napier to be fired as soon as possible.
Arkansas +7.5 over Texas A&M
The Razorbacks have hung in there against a triad of ranked teams already this season — Tennessee, Memphis and Ole Miss — so I don’t see why, with this game being played in Fayetteville, they wouldn’t be able to stay within striking distance against the Aggies.
Tennessee +8.5 over Alabama
Oh yes, that’s right. It’s the Third Saturday in October! Alabama is the better team, and I believe Alabama will win the game, but the Tide aren’t going to roll by 9 or more points against the Vols. Though, with that said, in each of the last 4 games that these teams have in Tuscaloosa, Alabama has won by at least 14 points.
Georgia money line over Ole Miss
I hate this line — Georgia -7.5 — so much that I plan on staying away from it entirely. If I do use this game for my parlay, it will be the money line, because I do think the Bulldogs emerge with a win and inch closer to reclaiming their spot atop the SEC.
Vanderbilt -1.5 over LSU
Before the season even began, in a 125 Predictions for the 2025 Football Season column I wrote for my own website, I predicted that Vanderbilt would score another upset over a top-10 ranked SEC opponent, and I even went as far as predicting that the win would come at the expense of the LSU Tigers. I can’t possibly back out now, can I? I talked the talk, now it’s time to walk the walk.
Kentucky +12.5 over Texas
Call it a post-Red River hangover if you’d like, I still just don’t know what to expect out of the Longhorns on a week-to-week basis. I have a slight lean toward Kentucky and the under in this game.
Missouri -1.5 over Auburn
I continue to feel like Auburn might be getting a little more respect than deserved, and even in a loss vs. Alabama last Saturday, I came away relatively impressed by the way the Missouri Tigers played, even in a game when Ahmad Hardy couldn’t get anything going on the ground.
South Carolina +5.5 over Oklahoma
Considering how John Mateer will be only 24 days removed from surgery on his throwing hand, that still doesn’t feel like a comfortable enough amount of time to back the Sooners. I had high hopes for the Gamecocks coming into the season, and even though LaNorris Sellers and Co. can’t salvage a College Football Playoff appearance, a win over the Sooners would go a long way toward ensuring that South Carolina doesn’t depart from this season feeling like it was a total waste.
The Picks: With all of the turmoil in Gainesville, I’m going to toss Mississippi State in at +9.5 as the Leg 1. Leg 2 will be the Georgia money line, though admittedly, my rooting interests are aligned with Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels. Leg 3 is Vanderbilt, because as I said, I can’t shy away from that preseason prediction now. And for the final leg of this weeks parlay, I’ll give South Carolina one last chance to grasp at some of that preseason hype. Plus, until Mateer is at least a full month removed from surgery on a broken right hand, I’m not sure how I can rightfully expect much from the Sooners offense.
Total odds: +786
