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The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its first ever Top 25 Poll Tuesday night, which featured five SEC West teams in the top 11 and four SEC West teams in the top six of the rankings.
Obviously, only four teams will make the playoff, and it’s unlikely more than two of them will come from the SEC, even though the initial poll listed three SEC teams in its Top 4 — Mississippi State, Auburn and Ole Miss.
With five weeks remaining in the regular season, there are still 16 one-loss teams from the power five conferences sitting behind unbeaten Mississippi State and Florida State in the rankings. As crowded as the poll is at this juncture of the season, it appears unlikely a two-loss team could crack the playoff field this year.
Thus, the next loss by any one-loss team would, for all intents and purposes, eliminate that team from playoff contention. And in an SEC with four one-loss teams sitting behind MSU, there are plenty of elimination games left in the final weeks of the regular season, beginning the SEC’s own sub-playoff to make the playoff.
There are five games remaining between two of the five SEC teams still jockeying for a spot in the Top 4:
Auburn at Ole Miss — Nov. 1
Mississippi State at Alabama — Nov. 15
Auburn at Georgia — Nov. 15
Mississippi State at Ole Miss — Nov. 29
Auburn at Alabama — Nov. 29
The sub-playoff begins this weekend in Oxford, Mississippi with a showdown between Ole Miss and Auburn. Both teams made the Top 4 of the inaugural CFP Poll, but the loser of this game can kiss its playoff hopes goodbye. The winner survives and advances; the loser joins LSU as really, really, really good two-loss teams relegated to the role of spoiler the rest of the year.
If that’s not a playoff game, I don’t know what is.
Fast forward to Nov. 15, when the SEC will feature two more potential elimination games as Mississippi State takes on Alabama and Auburn takes on Georgia between the Hedges.
Both games are interesting for completely different reasons. Mississippi State will likely still be undefeated when it visits Alabama, meaning it’ll have some margin for error in facing the Tide. As the lone unbeaten left in the conference, Mississippi State is the only team remaining that can afford a loss and still contend for a title.
If Alabama wins, both teams move forward with one loss in what would remain a cluttered SEC. If Mississippi State wins, however, Alabama’s title chances fly right out the window.
Meanwhile, in Athens, Georgia and Auburn will face in the best cross-divisional game in the SEC this season. There are a lot of variables surrounding this game — Will Auburn have one loss or two? How will Georgia perform in Todd Gurley’s return from suspension?
This game is where we start to see the effect two-loss teams will have on the SEC’s sub-playoff. A two-loss team may not have a playoff berth in its future, but it can certainly cost another team its title hopes by handing them a second loss.
If Auburn loses to Ole Miss on Saturday and then beats Georgia on Nov. 15, both teams will have two losses and neither will have a chance to reach the playoff. Suddenly, the SEC’s list of title contenders drops from five to three, and worse yet, a two-loss Georgia team would still be favored to win the SEC East and reach the conference championship game.
What if a two-loss Georgia team won the championship game over a one-loss Mississippi State or Ole Miss? The Dawgs could drop even another SEC foe to two losses, wreaking further havoc on the SEC’s playoff outlook.
This is the downside of the SEC’s dominance this year. With so many quality teams in one conference, they’re bound to start beating up on one another and knocking each other out of contention.
The same will be true on a huge final weekend of the regular season (Nov. 29). Ole Miss and Mississippi State will meet in the Egg Bowl in Oxford, and Alabama will look to avenge last year’s loss in the Iron Bowl when it hosts Auburn in Tuscaloosa. Those games are five weekends away, and it’s impossible to project how many losses any of those four teams will have at that time, but two more will take a loss that day to end their playoff hopes (unless MSU is still unbeaten).
And, of course, someone will eventually emerge as the West champion and will likely play Georgia in the SEC championship in what should be another elimination showdown.
There’s little margin for error left for any of the SEC’s powers, and there are plenty of opportunities for all of them to drop to two losses. Unless every other power conference experiences the same parity the rest of the way, the SEC’s final five weeks will be a sub-playoff to see who can claim the two (or maybe just one) CFP spots up for grabs.
What would be best for the SEC would be for one or two teams to beat up on the rest, creating disparity between those teams and the rest of the SEC field. For instance, if Mississippi State and Auburn both win out, they’d be 12-0 and 11-1, respectively, and would both have a great chance to reach the playoff as long as MSU won the SEC championship game.
However, if Auburn loses to Ole Miss then beats Georgia, and if Ole Miss then loses to Mississippi State and Auburn beats Alabama, every team but MSU would have two losses, costing the conference a shot at a second team cracking the playoff field.
This is the current state of the SEC — a conference with so many quality teams it could actually cost itself in the long run. The same can be said for the collection of teams atop the Big 12 or Pac 12, but not to the same extent as the SEC and its five teams in the top 11 of the CFP rankings.
A subjectively chosen playoff field has turned the back-stretch of the SEC schedule into its own playoff. Whether this fires you up or stresses you out, the sense of urgency is real.
The playoffs have already begun, SEC fans. Get your popcorn ready.
A former newspaper reporter who has roamed the southeastern United States for years covering football and eating way too many barbecue ribs, if there is such a thing.
