The BCS is officially in the rearview mirror and the new College Football Playoff is just down the road. Statements were made by several teams this past weekend, but which teams are for real? Here’s the contenders and pretenders at the halfway point of the season.
CONTENDERS
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Week 7 result: Defeated Auburn 38-23
The Bulldogs are officially a playoff contender. Mississippi State has won three straight games against top 10 opponents, and now sits atop both the Coaches’ and Associated Press Polls as the No. 1 team in America. Dak Prescott is the Heisman frontrunner, Josh Robinson is second in the SEC in rushing and the offense is averaging nearly 42 points per game. The Bulldogs have just one more game against a ranked opponent (Alabama) before the season finale against Ole Miss, and if State can close the regular season with just one loss it’ll be tough to keep out of the playoff.
Ole Miss Rebels
Week 7 result: Defeated Texas A&M 35-20
The Rebels have matched Mississippi State tick for tack this season, as both Magnolia State schools are among the last six FBS programs without a loss in 2014. Ole Miss has now beaten top 15 opponents in back to back weeks (Alabama and Texas A&M), and Bo Wallace did not commit a single turnover in either victory. The Rebels are second in the nation in scoring defense, allowing opponents to score fewer than 12 points per game. Like Mississippi State, Ole Miss has just one more game against a ranked foe (Auburn) before the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving weekend, and they, too, have a great chance at reaching the season finale with one loss or fewer. If the Rebels stay this hot, especially on defense, there’s a great chance both Mississippi schools get into the playoff this winter.
Baylor Bears
Week 7 result: Defeated TCU 61-58
Baylor showed great resolve in overcoming a 21-point fourth quarter deficit to take down fellow Big 12 unbeaten TCU last weekend, and the Bears are now the conference’s lone unbeaten team. Because the Big 12 does not have a conference championship game, all Baylor has to do is win its remaining games over Oklahoma (Nov. 8) and Oklahoma State (Nov. 22) and it’ll be a lock for the playoff. A loss to the Sooners would set the Bears back, and would give OU another shot at cracking the FBS final four. However, Baylor showed against TCU it is never out of a game, and that resiliency should carry them to a win over the Sooners and a likely playoff berth to follow.
Florida State Seminoles
Week 7 result: Defeated Syracuse 38-20
The defending national champions haven’t looked quite as flashy as last season, but the Seminoles are still getting the job done. Florida State is now a perfect 6-0 on the season, including impressive wins over Oklahoma State and Clemson. The win over Clemson proved there’s more to this team than reigning Heisman winner Jameis Winston, and if Florida State can take down No. 5 Notre Dame this weekend it should be able to coast to the ACC championship game. FSU has plenty of experience in big games, and it’s fortunate to get to take on the Fighting Irish at home this weekend. Until proven otherwise, there’s no reason to believe the Seminoles won’t have a shot to defend their crown this winter.
PRETENDERS
Alabama Crimson Tide
Week 7 result: Defeated Arkansas 14-13
Alabama is still a top 10 team with just one loss this year (coming against fellow top 10 team Ole Miss), but the eye test tells us this Crimson Tide team is not playoff material. ‘Bama barely escaped past an Arkansas team that hasn’t won an SEC game since 2012, and it still has tough tests remaining on its schedule in the form of Texas A&M, Mississippi State and, of course, the Iron Bowl against Auburn. Because the Tide already has one loss in 2014, it cannot afford another if it hopes to crack the playoff field. And the way Alabama struggled against middle-of-the-road teams like Arkansas and West Virginia earlier in the year, it seems unlikely they’ll reach the end of the line with just the one loss to the Rebels. Alabama is still an above-average team, but there are too many better teams in the SEC West to consider the Tide a contender.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Week 7 result: Defeated 50-43
Notre Dame will put its undefeated record on the line Saturday with a tough road test against Florida State, and the winner of that game will have a huge leg up in reaching the playoff field. Quarterback Everett Golson knows what it takes to finish the regular season without a loss (he led Notre Dame to a 12-0 record in 2012), and because Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference, it simply needs to get to the end of the regular season without a loss to get into the final four. However, Golson has struggled in big games during his career, while Winston and Florida State have a history of excelling on the big stage. Florida State will win Saturday, streamlining their path to the playoff while all but ending Notre Dame’s national title hopes.
TCU Horned Frogs
Week 7 result: Lost to Baylor 61-58
The Horned Frogs had a golden opportunity to cement a spot in the playoff with a win over Baylor last weekend, but they blew a 21-point fourth quarter lead to drop their first game of the season. Had TCU held on, it would be 5-0 today with back to back wins over Oklahoma and Baylor under their belt. It would have been tough for the selection committee to argue against that resume, but TCU blew its chance to crack the top 5 in the polls and all but ended its playoff hopes in its collapse against the Bears.
A former newspaper reporter who has roamed the southeastern United States for years covering football and eating way too many barbecue ribs, if there is such a thing.
