Auburn in 2015 wasn’t so much a cautionary tale as a reminder that preseason expectations don’t always match regular season reality.
Sometimes, they don’t even come close.
The SEC began divisional play in 1992, and since then, according to NOLA.com and a bit more research, just five times did the media’s preseason pick actually win the SEC Championship Game.
Four times, the preseason pick finished fourth or worse in their own division.
Keep that in mind this summer, when Tennessee (most likely) and Alabama or LSU are picked to win their respective division.
As you debate who was more to blame for the prediction-reality gap — the voters or the players — let’s look back at the four biggest misses, in chronological order:
2000 Alabama
The voters were cruising to this point. Their first four preseason picks reached the SEC Championship Game, and two won — Florida in 1994 and 1995. Strangely, they picked Tennessee (Peyton Manning) to upset the Gators in 1996. Florida instead won the national championship and Danny Wuerffel captured the Heisman, but Tennessee finished second in the East, saving the pundits from complete embarrassment.
That would come in 2000, when Alabama was picked to repeat as SEC champion.
Trouble came early and stayed late for the Tide, which opened the season ranked No. 3 in the country.
Alabama lost its opener, then was shut out by Southern Mississippi two weeks later. Brett Favre was long gone by then.
The Tide closed the season with five consecutive losses, including another nonconference setback, to Central Florida … two years after Daunte Culpepper left.
Opening No. 3 and finishing with just three wins remains one of the greatest misses in poll voting history.
2005 Tennessee
The media still didn’t have a firm handle on Tennessee. They didn’t pick the Vols to win the SEC in 1998 — and the Vols won the national title. They picked them to win the SEC in 1999 and 2002, and the Vols finished second and third, respectively.
Then came 2005, which started with a preseason No. 3 ranking in the AP Top 25 and ended with just three SEC wins, a fifth-place finish in the East and a losing record overall.
It took awhile for voters to admit their mistake. The Vols were 3-3 and still ranked a stubborn No. 23 in the Week 8 AP Poll.
2010 Alabama
LSU (2007) and Florida (2008) made the voters look downright Saban-esque, following preseason predictions of greatness with actual SEC championships.
Florida was voted to repeat in 2009, and why not? The Gators were the defending national champions and still had Tim Tebow. Alas, they lost the SEC title game to Alabama, which won the 2009 national championship.
No surprise, then, the media picked Alabama to win the 2010 SEC crown.
Not only that, the Tide opened the season ranked No. 1, and stayed there until Steve Spurrier and South Carolina stunned them in Columbia in early October.
I could watch college football replays all day. This South Carolina-Alabama game from 2010. Yes, yes, yes. HBC.
— Taylor Tannebaum (@TaylorTannebaum) October 13, 2015
Alabama dropped two more conference games to finish fourth in the West at 5-3, 10-3 overall.
2015 Auburn
Jeremy Johnson was going to win the Heisman. Auburn was going to unseat Alabama. It wasn’t the heat that got to voters last July in Birmingham, it was the stupidity.
Considering what transpired, it’s enough to wonder whether the SEC moved its media days to April 1.
Johnson was considerably less than Heisman-worthy and Auburn, ranked No. 6 in the preseason poll, needed overtime to get past Jacksonville State and lost its first two SEC games.
By Week 3, they were out of the AP Poll, well on their way to a stunning 7-6 record and last-place finish in the West.
Like Auburn in 2016, we’ll try to do better this summer.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
