SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 7: Penn State had to let Beau Pribula go, but he can still make them regret it
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama
Simpson dug such a deep hole for himself in Bama’s opening-day debacle at Florida State that it was conceivable he’d never manage to claw his way out. Barely a month later, he’s on top, making him the 5th different QB to book the penthouse suite this season. That already represents the most turnover in the top spot since these Rankings became a weekly staple in 2019, and it’s not even mid-October.
Anyway, after 2 years of the Jalen Milroe Experience, the Crimson Tide don’t need any reminders to keep their head on a swivel from one week to the next. Simpson has been lights out since the opener, averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a Tua-esque 195.7 passer rating over the course of a 4-game winning streak. He was nearly flawless against Wisconsin; looked like a future first-rounder at Georgia; and backed that up in Week 6 in a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt. Even including the FSU game, he leads the conference in passing yards, efficiency and overall PFF grade. With surging Heisman odds, if he hasn’t restored Bama fans’ trust yet, resistance is getting more futile by the week.
Last week: 2⬆
2. John Mateer, Oklahoma
Mateer returns to the Rankings this week after a brief hiatus, but his status in the Red River Rivalry against Texas is still very much TBD. Optimism surged on Tuesday based on an ESPN report that Mateer is “pushing to play” against the Longhorns, less than 3 weeks removed from surgery to repair an injury to his throwing hand. A local report from On3.com added that he resumed throwing late last week and “practiced in some capacity” on Monday. Brent Venables, predictably, was in no mood to add to the speculation, telling reporters “I don’t know anything about this injury,” and “when (doctors and trainers) tell me he’s ready, then I’ll know.” Translated from coachspeak: “I know, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to let YOU know.”
That leaves Texas to prepare for Mateer and sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr., whom the ‘Horns remember well from last year’s 34-3 blowout. That game was Hawkins’ second start as a true freshman, and the beginning of the end of his audition to be the Sooners’ full-time starter. In his Monday press conference, Steve Sarkisian called Hawkins “a much improved player,” which is coachspeak for “the only recent film we have on him is against Kent State.” The trajectory of both teams’ seasons could hinge on how comfortably Mateer is gripping the ball when he wakes up on Saturday morning.
Last week: n/a
3. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
Blink and you missed it, but for a fleeting moment there it looked like the Commodores were on the verge of humbling Alabama for the second year in a row. They already led late in the first quarter, 7-0, courtesy of a breakaway touchdown run on their opening possession. Their second possession opened with Pavia breaking off a 36-yard run, followed by a pair of chain-moving completions to set up 1st-and-10 at the Bama 13-yard line. At that point, the wind was squarely at Vandy’s back. Then, just as abruptly, it shifted the other way.
That was Pavia’s first lost fumble of the season, and while it by no means the end of the upset bid it was a turning point. With Alabama’s offense controlling the clock, Vanderbilt only got 6 more bites at the apple, only 1 of which resulted in points as a result of a short field; the other 5 yielded 3 punts, a turnover on downs, and a 2nd red-zone giveaway in the 4th quarter that was even costlier (not to mention uglier) than the first.
Yeah, you’re not going to make it out of Tuscaloosa with your perfect record intact after coming up empty twice inside the 20-yard line. It’s debatable how much cashing in those opportunities would have altered the course of a game ultimately decided by 16 points, but by failing to cash them in, the ‘Dores left themselves with no chance to perform the Victory Formation Pavia practiced in pregame.
Last week: 1⬇
4. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Stockton is a little bigger, and probably has at least a slightly bigger arm. Otherwise, pretty much the only difference I clock so far between him and Stetson Bennett IV is the number on the jersey.
And even the jersey is only off by one digit! Kirby Smart is obviously not averse to recruiting 5-star pocket gods — the next one is in the pipeline for 2026 — but the man has a type.
Last week: 4⬌
5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Ole Miss fans have embraced Chambliss’ emergence by adopting the flag of the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago. All in good fun, but it begs the question: How many of them are under the impression that Trinidad, an obscure D-II transfer who seemed to come out of nowhere a few weeks ago, is from Trinidad? As Lane Kiffin went out of his way to clarify this week, Chambliss is from Grand Rapids, Michigan. “He’s been to one island in his life on a field trip when he was little, to Mackinac Island in Michigan,” Kiffin said. “So he’s never been around blue water, let alone sand and an island.” As long as he’s accounting for 400 yards per game, he could from Mars, for all they care. He’s well on his way to becoming Ole Miss’ next 3,000-yard passer.
Last week: 3⬇
6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
Last week, my thoughts about Reed were “squishy.” This week: Squish squish. Saturday’s 31-9 win over Mississippi State was typical. On one hand, he accounted for 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) en route to a comfortable win in a conference game. On the other, the Aggies dominated the line of scrimmage so thoroughly they could have just as easily pounded the Bulldogs into submission with the quarterback on standby. A&M piled up 300 yards rushing, allowed a single 3rd-down conversion on defense, and finished with a 16-and-a-half-minute advantage in time of possession. Reed was unbothered in the pocket (2 QB pressures on 24 drop-backs, per PFF) yet finished 1-for-5 on attempts of 20+ air yards.
Put it this way: Where the oddsmakers see a potential Heisman candidate at the wheel of a top-10 team, the stat sheet reveals a guy lingering in the bottom half of the conference in efficiency (8th), EPA (11th), Total QBR (12th) and overall PFF grade (13th). Eventually, one half of that equation is almost certainly going to prove more durable than the other. The question is which one?
Last week: 5⬇
7. Taylen Green, Arkansas
You never know how a team whose head coach just got shoved overboard midseason is going to respond. Some teams go in the tank. Just as often, though, they rally, especially when the change comes early in the season. Look at UCLA. The Bruins were so bad over the course of an 0-3 start that firing coach DeShaun Foster was a no-brainer less than a month into his 2nd season; folks wondered (fairly) if they’d win a game. A couple weeks later, they celebrated UCLA’s biggest win in ages, over Penn State. (Shout out to former Vols QB Nico Iamaleava!)
As dismal as they were their last time out, the Razorbacks are not in nearly such dire straits after dumping Sam Pittman as UCLA. Green’s presence is the main reason. Unlike Iamaleava, who prior to Saturday looked like a straight-up bust as a Bruin, Green has largely held up his end of the bargain even in defeat. He had the Hogs in position to win at the end of their losses to Ole Miss and Memphis – both shootouts decided on lost fumbles by a teammate – and still leads the nation in total offense. If nothing else, he has NFL Draft stock to consider in his final year of eligibility, too. Like Iamaleava, he might be the most intriguing player on the field on any given Saturday.
Now, whether Arkansas fans are actually rooting for the Hogs to turn it around under interim head coach Bobby Petrino (still an incredible combination of words to type) is another story. Petrino is more or less openly angling for the full-time job, an outcome that would inspire, uh, feelings among the base, to put it mildly. But for better or worse, Green gives him a chance.
Last week: 6⬇
8. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
Both of Tennessee’s first 2 SEC games were decided in overtime, with the twist that the Vols arguably felt better about Aguilar’s prospects following the loss (against Georgia, in a game they should have won) than they did after the win (at Mississippi State, in a game they very well could have lost). With Alabama on deck in Week 8, the last thing they need Saturday against a lame-duck version of Arkansas is more drama. The Hogs’ secondary is ripe for a barbecue.
Last week: 7⬇
9. Beau Pribula, Missouri
Pribula won over the locals more or less immediately, followed by certain members of the sicko community who managed to catch glimpses of Mizzou’s 5-0 start. (Hand raised out of professional obligation.) For everyone else, he remains a relative unknown due to make his formal introduction this weekend against Alabama. Among that audience, there might be one group watching especially intently: Deflated Penn State fans beginning to wonder if the Nittany Lions kept the wrong quarterback.
Not that there was any question about it last December, when Pribula portaled out of State College just ahead of Penn State’s Playoff run. The only controversy at the time was over the timing of the winter portal window, which cost the Lions their backup QB while their season was still very much in progress. (An issue the NCAA has since addressed.) And the only person who imagined Pribula overtaking Drew Allar, an entrenched face-of-the-program type who boasted a 21-5 record over 2 seasons as a starter, would have been the inevitable message board crank who’s always in favor of benching the starting QB on principle.Â
Lately, though, their respective arcs over the first half of this season have a lot of Lions watchers feeling kinda cranky. Pribula is not (yet) a star, but his stock is stable and rising at Mizzou on an offense that leads the nation in rushing vs. FBS opponents. On paler, he’s outpacing the slumping Allar across the board. Allar, meanwhile, is one of the long list of would-be Heisman candidates whose campaign is in freefall, statistically and otherwise. PSU’s Week 5 loss to Oregon at home was yet another bitter disappointment against a top opponent; its Week 6 flop at a lame-duck version of UCLA was an embarrassment that’s going to haunt them the rest of the season. He still can’t win the big one, and suddenly he’s losing random ones, too? Midway through one of the most anticipated seasons in ages, the Lions are unranked, their Playoff chances all but dead in the water.
It doesn’t help anything, but under the circumstances a little revisionist history is hard to resist. An upset bid against Bama is Pribula’s chance to make it impossible. If he succeeds in winning the kind of game his old team is increasingly defined by losing – on his first try! – it’s going to be one more question James Franklin has to answer that he wishes he didn’t.
Last week: 8⬇
10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Sellers has not been nearly as disappointing as some of the other preseason Heisman frontrunners on this list, but between injury (vs. Vanderbilt), inconsistency (Missouri) and subdued play-calling (Virginia Tech, Kentucky), he’s yet to put together a complete game, either. Coming off an open date, he has another opportunity at LSU in a game that might as well be advertised as a Playoff Eliminator. Sellers was on pace for a breakout performance against the Tigers in 2024 before an injury cut his afternoon short in an eventual loss at the gun. Against a much improved LSU this time around, the Gamecocks need their bell cow at full speed for 60 minutes.
Last week: 9⬇
11. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Speaking of a quarterback who needs a complete game. Nussmeier’s stock has been on the decline since the Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson, a defensively-driven effort that doesn’t look nearly as impressive in light of Clemson’s slide since. He’s fallen out of first-round projections, and ranks next-to-last among SEC starters vs. FBS opponents in yards per attempt and efficiency. Grumbles about the offense peaked in a Week 5 loss at Ole Miss and continued through an open date. The silver lining for LSU: At 4-1, all of the Tigers’ goals are still on the table. The silver lining for Nussmeier, personally: At least Bryce Underwood changed his mind, or he’d have almost certainly have Nussmeier’s job.
Last week: 10⬇
12. DJ Lagway, Florida
Lagway followed his 2 worst games as a Gator, 5-alarm losses at LSU and Miami, with his best game as a Gator in a 29-21 win over Texas. The best part, aside from snapping a 3-game slide and salvaging his head coach’s job for another week: His leading receivers against the Longhorns were a pair of blue-chip freshmen, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III, still just getting their feet wet. Wilson and Brown announced their arrival by combining for 9 receptions, 183 yards and 2 touchdowns (both by Wilson) on more than 20 yards per catch against one of the league’s most respected secondaries. (Although it’s worth noting that the Longhorns’ best cover corner, Malik Muhammad, was sidelined due to injury.) Now, saving Billy Napier‘s bacon is just a matter of getting them to pull that off 5 or 6 more times against equally stiff competition.
Last week: 14⬆
13. Arch Manning, Texas
What’s wrong with Arch? Is he broken? Is he hurt? Is he just green? Or is he, like … just kinda bad?
That all depends. How long you got, and how generous are you feeling?
To hear it from his critics — and they’re certainly loud enough — you might get the impression Manning couldn’t throw the ball into a lake. That’s an exaggeration, obviously, but not by much. For every memorable throw he’s made (and there have been more than a few), Manning has whiffed on another, including some real groaners. And what downfield success he has managed has come with a whiff of both quantity over quality and too little, too late.
Per PFF, his 13 attempts of 20+ air yards against Florida were the most by an FBS quarterback in any game this season; the fact that the completed 5 of them paled next to the fact that 7 of them clanged to the turf, and another was picked off. He is missing a lot. And by the time he starts connecting, it feels like an act of desperation. All 4 of Texas’ touchdowns in losses to Ohio State and Florida have come with the ‘Horns already trailing by double digits.
In response to the backlash, Arch’s defenders were quick to point out after Saturday’s loss that, for all his liabilities, the worst was his offensive line. Also true enough. The Longhorns fell behind early, abandoned the run, and left both the overmatched front and their erratic quarterback to fend for themselves in comeback mode, with predictable results. Per PFF, Manning was under duress on 26 of his 42 drop-backs against the Gators — an egregious pressure rate of 62%. In addition to 6 sacks allowed, Texas linemen were collectively flagged for 6 penalties. PFF charged true freshman Nick Brooks, thrust into the first meaningful action of his career following an injury to starting left guard Connor Stroh, with 9 pressures allowed and a 3.8 pass-blocking grade (out of 100, to be clear). Not that Stroh (No. 79 below) was faring much better before his exit.
Unlike in the Ohio State game, most of Manning’s downfield attempts against Florida came with the pass rush bearing down; a couple of his wildest throws came with Gators quite literally in his face.
Then again, while his shorthanded o-line was undeniably a wreck, Arch didn’t do himself any favors with his languid pocket presence. Official Rankings policy dictates that sacks are a QB stat, and Manning bears some responsibility for his own self-preservation. By PFF’s stopwatch, he averaged 3.58 seconds per drop-back in The Swamp, the most time for any FBS quarterback in Week 6 with at least 20 reps. (On drop-backs that resulted in pressure, it was 3.90 seconds.) On more than 85% of those snaps, he had at least 2.5 seconds, again the highest rate in the country for the weekend.
That was consistent with his season averages. For the year, Manning’s 3.24 seconds per drop-back currently leads the SEC; he’s getting (or taking) at least 2.5 seconds on an FBS-high 72.2% of those reps; and he’s averaging an SEC-high 12.0 yards per target. That could not possibly be a bigger departure from the screen-heavy attack operated last year by Quinn Ewers, who could not get the ball out of his hands fast enough.
At the end of the day, though, you don’t need a stopwatch or to wade that deep into the analytical weeds to recognize a struggling young quarterback when you see one. Manning was hardly sharper on Saturday when he was kept clean than he was under duress. Both interceptions were served up confidently from a clean pocket, as was another shoulda-been pick rifled directly into the hands of a Florida linebacker so stunned to become the intended receiver he failed to bring it down. The first INT was a late-and-lofty lob that hung in the air just long enough for a trailing safety to close the gap on a wideout who initially appeared to have him beat. The 2nd INT was a high-and-wide dart straight to the numbers of a waiting safety stationed 8 yards behind Manning’s intended target.
Look, this entry is much too long already for a full reckoning with the state of the “Arch Sucks” Discourse. He doesn’t suck. His biggest problem right now, and for the foreseeable future, is the hype that preceded him. If he had a different last name, or was playing for almost any team other than the one that started out ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls, or if some percentage of the rapidly growing number of sports gamblers in this country hadn’t been convinced to bet the kids’ tuition on him winning the Heisman, Arch would be … fine. Hardly worth noticing one way or the other. Not great, not hopeless. Certainly not a bust (yet). Just another gifted-but-green sophomore who needs a little time.
Eligibility-wise, he’s got it. In the court of public opinion, it’s running thinner by the week.
Last week: 11⬇
14. Jackson Arnold, Auburn
Hugh Freeze vowed to spend Auburn’s open date “re-evaluating” everything” about the offense following a couple of dismal outings against Oklahoma and Texas A&M to open SEC play. We’ll see the results this weekend against Georgia. If Arnold continues to drop back twice as often as he’s handing off with the game still within reach, then it’s safe to say the only thing Freeze reevaluated is whether he still has any interest in his beleaguered QB remaining upright. And the answer was “no.”
Last week: 12⬇
15. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
State isn’t running the Air Raid anymore, but it’s still dinking and dunking. Not that Shapen doesn’t have the arm: His best throw in the Bulldogs’ loss at Texas A&M, a 44-yard touchdown strike to Brenen Thompson, was a beauty. The only problem was it came in garbage time of a game in which the offense had generated no juice whatsoever up to that point. Shapen’s other 14 completions the night — that’s completions, not attempts — netted just 6.9 yards a pop and 3 first downs.
Last week: 13⬇
16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky
Boley didn’t stand much chance at Georgia, but he acquitted himself well under the circumstances — especially considering the circumstances called on him to drop back 45 times in a game in which Kentucky’s win probability never exceeded 10%, according to ESPN. His most impressive sequence was a 2-minute drill with the Wildcats trailing 21-7 and looking to narrow the gap going into halftime. Boley started the drive 6-for-7 for 47 yards, moving the ball inside the UGA 10-yard line with enough time for a shot at the end zone or, at worst, a chip-shot field goal. The shot at the end zone sailed well out of bounds. No problem. Then the chip-shot field goal sailed wide of the uprights. Big problem. Thus ended Kentucky’s only sustained drive before garbage time, which officially commenced when the Cats fumbled the ball away on the first possession of the second half.
Last week: 16⬌
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
